Ron Paul Has A 99.6% Chance of Getting A "5th" State!Submitted by Liberty_Forever on Sat, 07/14/2012 - 00:57
Okay guys, so earlier tonight I did some research and number crunching. According to TheReal2012DelegateCount, there a seven states that have not released a number for delegates (Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, and of course Nebraska).There are 2 states conventions that I did not include, but if they were included it would only increases the odds.
After finding out how many possible ways Paul could win at least one of these states (127), I divided it by the maximum number of possibilities. This number is of course 128 since there is only one possible way Paul doesn't win any state. Anyway, the calculations gave me a percentage of over 99.2%, and like I said, adding the Idaho and Oregon conventions would just make the odds higher. I just added in those 2 conventions and the odds rose to over 99.6%! The corrupt GOP can't fight these odds!
If all else fails, we still have the Oklahoma Parking Lot slate (thanks Suriyahfish!) that SHOULD be chosen. After all, they played by the rules the entire way.
All in all, Nebraska is NOT do or die and it is NOT our last hope! We still have other chances to get plurality in states, and even after that, there is Rule 38.
Keep on fighting delegates! We Paulites are all behind you!
PS If the math seems hard to believe, you can double check my work. Find the odds of Paul winning at leat 1 state when 9 states are up for grabs.
You can calculate this with combinations. On a scientific calculator it is easiest. I used my TI-83 PLUS and entered in 9 nCr 1, 9 nCr 2, and so on. If you can figure out how to do combinations on a calculator you can see for yourself!
With the Nebraska results, the odds go down (sort of). I had miscalculated my combinations earlier and did the combination for 8 states when I thought I did nine. The actually probability WAS 99.8%, but after the Nebraska loss, the odds drop down to 99.6%. It may not seem like much now, but as the states with unknown numbers start coming in, it will make a difference.
I still think our best chances for these other states are Oklahoma and Texas. There is still hope people, so don't give up! Paul can still get his 15 minutes of fame.