286 votes

New Poll: 45% Vote Ron Paul For President With 58% Favorability

17 August Update:

Poll #2 has been posted here:
http://www.dailypaul.com/249510/paul-vs-obama-poll-2-results

Please ChipIn here to fund Paul vs. Obama Poll #3. http://paulvsobamapoll.chipin.com/ron-paul-vs-obama-poll-3

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

12 August 2012

Contact:
James Rushing
jimrushing@cox.net

New Poll: 45% Vote Ron Paul For President With 58% Favorability

In a new poll conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, matching up presidential candidates Barack Obama and Ron Paul, 45% of one thousand likely voters across America said they would vote Ron Paul for President.

58% of those surveyed have a favorable view of Ron Paul, while just 36% have an unfavorable view. Compare this to Mitt Romney (50% favorable, 45% unfavorable) and Barack Obama (51% favorable, 48% unfavorable). Ron Paul is viewed in a favorable light by significantly more people than Obama or Romney.

The "likely voters" were asked the following question: "Suppose in this year's Presidential Election you had a choice between Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat Barack Obama?" The results are: 45% Ron Paul and 47% Barack Obama. (+/-3%)

###

Top Line Numbers:

National Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
Conducted August 5, 2012
By Pulse Opinion Research

1* Suppose in this year's Presidential Election you had a choice between Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat Barack Obama

45% Paul

47% Obama

6% Some other candidate

2% Not sure

2* If the Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?

48% Romney
46% Obama
4% Some other candidate
2% Not sure More

New poll: 58% Favor Ron Paul For President

3* I'm going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Mitt Romney

24% Very favorable
26% Somewhat favorable
21% Somewhat unfavorable
24% Very unfavorable
5% Not sure

4* Barack Obama

35% Very favorable
16% Somewhat favorable
10% Somewhat unfavorable
38% Very unfavorable
1% Not sure

5* Ron Paul

17% Very favorable
41% Somewhat favorable
21% Somewhat unfavorable
15% Very unfavorable
7% Not sure

6* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President. do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he's been doing?

34% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
8% Somewhat disapprove
39% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Contact:
James Rushing
jimrushing@cox.net
Ron Paul Republicans:
http://www.dailypaul.com/245437/paul-vs-obama-poll?from=lbp

"The national telephone survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on August 5, 2012. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC."

# # #

Give our Ron Paul Republican activists and Ron Paul Delegates the information they need to show all the RNC Delegates in Tampa that Paul can beat Obama and Romney can't. Please "ChipIn" to fund the Paul vs. Obama Poll #3:
http://paulvsobamapoll.chipin.com/ron-paul-vs-obama-poll-3




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Very good writeup

And that headline is perfect.

You wrote a Great article!

I was stunned by the headline even though I already knew all about what it said!
Are you proposing we use this for the Media Release of the Poll#1? If so, please reply and let us know if you want to write it and sent it, from your news page, InGotNews, to the media.

reasonnow

Feel free

Anyone can feel free to reprint or use the words if they'd like. I wasn't proposing we use it for anything specific - I just wrote it to help spread the word (my site often comes up in search engine results, etc.)

I'll probably write one for each poll release. The more articles about Dr. Paul there are, the better.

The 45% Media Release

I suggest we use this for the 45% press release. I'll put it in final form and post it here for more suggestions. This needs to happen in the next few hours, James

The 45% Media Release

I suggest we use this for the 45% press release.

Poll write-up

Thank you. Enjoyed that. You have excellent writing abilities. :)

May I make a suggestion? Story is even better, update title to:

"Paul vs. Obama Poll Results 45% Paul, 47% Obama, Statistical TIE."

that's because people might assume from the present title that Obama beats Paul 55% to 45%. He doesn't. Looks like almost ten percent breaks third party, and 3% margin of error makes it a STATISTICAL TIE. This jibes with a last year's poll showing Paul beating Obama with 51%!

http://www.conservativeactionalerts.com/2011/09/ron-paul-bea...

"Ron Paul 45% and 47% Obama, with a margin of error +/-3%."

A man who views the world the same at fifty as he did at twenty has wasted thirty years of his life.
-- Muhammad Ali

Another good idea

is to emphasize the favorability ratings, since Paul is leaps and bounds above both Romney and Obama in that department (if you add together the "very favorable" and "somewhat favorable" answers for all three candidates, Paul gets 58% and the other two are hovering around just 50%). Actually, the favorability rating is more important than the question of who the voters currently favor, since the latter preference often changes with time among the swing voters who will decide this election, while the former is much more static and limits how well any candidate can hope to perform (voters are unlikely to go from liking someone to hating them, and they are equally unlikely to start supporting someone they don't like).

Lana

I'll be posting the revised media release in a few hours. Please see if your concerns are met.
Please start thinking about distribution...We have a hot number!

MODS, Can you please put this on top?

thanks again.

1st Poll Results Posted Here By James-Must See & Comment pls

Keep this bumped too!

A.Hansen

Does anyone know

why this is not front page news? Guests to this website have to go to page 9? What's up with this, I truly don't understand.

James, Have you contacted the campaign

with the results? Doug Wead as well as Bruce Fein, are frequently guests on TV and radio shows and would be a resource for disseminating the results. I'm not doubting your abilities to compose a well-written release, but the campaign may be better suited to do it.

You are correct that timing is very critical.

We Want The Best

Check out the revised media release to be posted in the next few hours.
Start thinking about distribution...James

optimystic's picture

My email reply to James Rushing:

Thanks for sending the poll results! Very good news!

I think we would be well served to call the poll results a neck and
neck tie since all results are within the poll's margin of error. The
big difference that should be emphasized in the press release is the
favorable / unfavorable ratings of the candidates. Dr. Paul has a more than 10% point favorable margin over Obama or Romney. This is huge as undecided voters will tend to swing his way. It is the most telling statistic in the poll!

Also worthy of mention is that the poll equally queried democrats and
republicans at 35% each while 30% did not state a party. Most of the
polls showing Romney behind were skewed in favor of voters who
identified with the democratic party. However, in the 2010
congressional elections, democrats and republicans were evenly split.
This gives our poll greater credibility than most and it should be
highlighted.

Finally, the press release should be a matter of fact affair. That
means dispensing with the rah rah rah notions that Americans want to
end the fed, end the wars, etc. These topics were not polled so we
should not draw such conclusions. Try to stick to the facts and you'll win over more reporters to spread the news.

I wish I could help you write the press release. Unfortunately, I must go to bed now and leave early in the morning on a family outing. It's my first day off since May!

Thanks for taking the project on!

dacharlie's picture

Very good point!

Those are great pointers Optimystic. This is just a single poll but it already confirms what we all have suspected all along and what MSM is trying to hide. The fact that most people can agree on liberty principles. What we need for Dr. Paul is just a bit more national exposure such as in a 15 minutes address at the Tampa convention and the Undecideds would all flock to him is my greatest hope.
Lets see what the next 2 polls show. I am sure we will be vindicated as well.

More people favor Ron Paul

One thing I noticed is Ron Paul is more favorable then Obama and Romney!

Among the 3 candidates, if you add the 2 favorable categories (very and somewhat favorable) Ron Paul wins. I think many people like him, but still may have doubts he can win, so he falls into the somewhat favorable category.

Mitt Romney 24% Very favorable,
26% Somewhat favorable
50% Total favorable
Barack Obama 35% Very favorable,
16% Somewhat favorable
51% Total favorable
Ron Paul 17% Very favorable,
41% Somewhat favorable
58% Total favorable
We should highlight this as well.

It's a strong point to emphasize. He beats them especially when you consider most people haven't seen or heard him in the media a whole lot. THe MSM has kept him away from the masses for this reason. He has a tendency to draw people in because he makes sense when he speaks. A 15 min slot could work wonders, especially with his enthusiastic delegates besides him.

Mike

Mike

...good points. Check out the final media release coming up soon. James

Is Paul electable?

That is the most often asked question from what I have seen or heard. The answer is YES, as this poll indicates. Even with the media blackout, Paul's favorable percentages are higher than Ob or Rom and should be strongly emphasized in the press release. All our delegates need a copy of this.

how does one come to this conclusion....

So Romney wins by 2 and Paul loses by 2, and the conclusion is "The Ron Paul Republicans believe their poll results show the Rebublican National Convention delegates have one choice if they want to beat Obama in November, to nominate Ron Paul."

Huh?

Because every poll has always

Because every poll has always shown Paul and Ob neck-n-neck while Rom is lower. The most important part of our poll is the favorablity % and the large number of independent voters (which both parties need).

That's not true

A lot of people say that, but it's not close to being true. Romney consistently polled better than Paul against Obama. Only with cherry picking of the most extreme kind could someone say the opposite.

I stand corrected.

I did some more research and according to RealClearPolitics poll averages as of 8-9 Ob has +4.2 vs Rom. Ob has +8 vs Paul. ABC in 10 straight polls this year has average favorable Ob 53% Rom 40% but did not include Paul. I could not find any polls with only Rom vs Paul.

Media coverage is the difference

Romney has been the anointed one by the media since day one...and has had a free run. Not to mention his chest of money from the likes of G sachs and the other massive banks. Ron Paul's media coverage, has been as close to a blackout as possible...and when he was covered...it was only to say how much of a racist and anti-semite he was. The media is going to pay deeply for their actions. This poll and any growing Ron Paul support could be correlated to the diminishing viewership of MSM political broadcasting, which has been a facade.

Why is this voted down?

I'm going on record that I voted this up and my 'up vote' was erased by at least 3 'down votes'. So, why the down votes?

Is it because people take joy in voting down all comments from this poster?

Or is it because the 'down voters' don't know any better.

What I love about mathematics and statistics is that numbers are very 'black and white'. By nature they are very factual. Numbers can be manipulated (changed to other numbers) but their interpretation can not be changed and still be represented as being 'true' and/or 'correct'.

Example: A number '3' can be changed to a '4' - if there are only 3 things present and the number 4 is used to represent that fact, either an error was made in it's recording or it's representation was intentionally changed (manipulated). But 3 will always represent 111 and 4 will always represent 1111. To say otherwise would make it not 'true' or 'correct'. And doing away with the 'premise' or 'idea' makes it useless.

The Shazad is correct here. Just as all the posters here saying 'it is a statistical tie' are correct. If 'The Shazad' post and my posts below are voted down, then all posters stating true and correct info should be voted down to make everything 'congruent'. Which in essence would make everything not 'true' and therefore 'wrong' and therefore 'useless'.

To be polite, your actions just show your lack of knowledge. This is not helpful, it is harmful. Misrepresentation and mistake will be very harmful to our 'Ron Paul success' when we've come so far.

45% is really great for Ron Paul

Considering everything that has been done to try to make Ron Paul look un-electable, come to find out, Ron Paul is very much electable across the nation. We are proving this point with this first of 3 national polls. The numbers for Ron Paul will go up as we get closer to the convention when all the Delegates will get the message to Nominate Ron Paul.

reasonnow

Poll Results Are In

Poll results are in. 45% of likely voters chose Paul to be the next POTUS! See post update...

Poll Results

Thanks for posting.

Questions:

1. Where are the rest of the results showing the demographics of the sampling?

2. Why are 3 polls needed?

3. Apparently the pollsters' timing is off. You received results much quicker than they said! What was the hurry to do poll 2 after just 2 days?

Would you please hold off on your press releases. Also on poll 3 - which you don't have money for anyway.

I'm sorry, I'm not a 'happy camper' at present. I'd like more info please; and more planning, preparation, discussion, organization, proofing/editing, etc. are needed for public consumption, in my opinion. (I feel we may have service issues here with the co,?)

Thank you.

PS: When, how, and where will the co. be making the results public?

The 2 people who down-voted this....

...to be polite, you lack 'knowledge'. (One of the things that make Ron Paul so great!)

Thanks For Asking

We received the poll results in three parts, three attachments, in an email from Pulse Opinion.
Attachments:
1. Cover letter.
2. Top Line Numbers (I published these numbers above in the main post.)
3. The "crosstabs" spreadsheet is the third part and I'm posting it in the next Update because its a spreadsheet.

Also, I "forwarded" the entire Poll Results to the entire Contributor and supporters lists I have assembled to date, 226 addreess.

I will forward the Poll Results from Pulse, three attachments, to anyone (?) who sends me a request and return email address.

Let's all get involved and use this 45% poll number to raise awareness Paul can beat Obama, that America wants Liberty! America wants Ron Paul!

2 - We need three polls to show growth. As the media, activists, delegates, etc., watch the polls rise they work harder and smarter to raise awareness... We will have three polls' results so to have a Breaking News Media Release every eight days. We'll have Poll numbers showing Paul can win!

3 - The polls are spaced 7 days apart so we'll have time between each poll to raise the numbers for the next poll release.
Poll #1 to be published 9 August. (This date was 11 August)
Poll #2 to be Published 17 August.
Poll #3 to be published 24 August. RNC Starts 27 Aug. and our delegates will know Paul has 45% of the Presidential Vote! and maybe more! Let's unite to defend Liberty. Work to raise awareness. We Want Limited Government, Individual Rights and nothing else.

4- I'm holding off on the Media Release until 9 August as scheduled, in hopes of a better Media Release, or any part, etc. Input is the name of the game. Let's be creative and we'll win.

5 - Poll results are emailed to me and I make the results available to the DP Community , and the world, here.

6 - Planning is good and I'm ready anytime. But time moves us along and at this point, time is short.

The focus at this time is how to compose the best Media Release. I composed a sample, see post above, let's edit or replace it, but time is short and we need to get Media Release right and send it out to the world now. We have 45%!!

I'm elated! Paul has 45% of the popular vote! Not 19% like GJ. Not 30% like some predictions... We have 45%!! We're in the game. Now, let's go to work and raise these numbers. 19 days to Tampa.

James