4 votes

If 100% of the delegates show in Tampa, how many is that?

Ok, On the surface I know the answer seems simple 2286 and to win the nomination you need 1144. Ok, so these are the numbers that we all know. However, it occurred to me today that there are, I believe, several states like my own (AZ) which were penalized and half of their delegates were lost before the caucuses even started.

So, with that in mind, if every delegate showed in Tampa how many would that be?? I'm just thinking if Romney has to get 50% of the room on the 1st ballot then that's allot easier to get than say 60% of the room.

Also, do the rules state that the winner has to get 50% + 1 or a hard 1144?

Anyone Know?

Thanks in Advance

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2286 already factors in the lost delegates

from states like Arizona and Florida. So unless there is a change in the number of delegates that count from an individual state, 1144 is the number that everyone is going after. If for some reason they were to restore the other 50 delegates from Florida, then the target number would increase. If for some reason they decide that instead of picking a winner in the Oklahoma delegate contest, they just disqualify all of them and don't have any delegates from Oklahoma, then the target number would decrease.

You seem to be politically savvy

did you ever read the text of John McCain's endorsement?

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/the-mccain-endorsement.html

How do you think the on-going saga of Romney's non disclosure of his Tax Returns is going to play out?

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

I think his endorsement sounded a little different

As for the tax returns, I think it's pretty hard to tell what's going to happen on this issue. The reason the Democrats keep talking about them is that they want to continue with the class warfare / rich don't pay their fair share theme. They don't actually think there's anything shady in them - they just know that since Romney hasn't accepted much of a paycheck in quite a while, most of his income is from investments and thus is taxed at quite a low rate. Given what happened to many people's investments in 2008, I imagine he lost a good amount of money in that year, and his tax burden may have been extremely low. Romney doesn't want to play that game, but it may come to a point where it may be smart to just release more tax returns. I just don't know how it will play out.

You are being disingenious

and you know it.

If Romney had nothing to hide or nothing embarrassing in his Tax Returns, he would have released them already to avoid the heat that he is getting from this.
Two thirds of Independents want Romney to release his Tax Returns.
Romney has already lost votes over this issue.
Early indications are around 4 to 5 pts in Florida and about 3 in Wisconsin.

I think the most probable reason is that Romney benefited in some way from the 2009 tax amnesty.

Obama will continue to use it right up to November and continue to rub salt in Romney's open sores.

The link I put up about McCain's endorsement is what McCain really knows about Romney.
His public comments do not reflect what he actually thinks about Romney.

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

I agree

He took the amnesty deal to avoid penalty or prosecution. Now he'll have to stand up and defend the offshore parking practice. Good Luck with that the way that the dem's are pounding the class warfare drum.
If it's not allowed to die or he tries to change the subject and point the finger back; the media and the DNC stand ready to pounce. Rock and a hardplace I tell you. His fault by not doing the right thing in the first place.
The right thing? Just follow the good Dr's prescription..

last time he released them...

people couldn't shut up about them for weeks, even though there was absolutely nothing controversial in them. And that was while he was running against Republicans. It's going to be 10 times the media coverage now that he's running against Obama. And no matter how many he releases, people are going to keep asking for more. If he releases them back to 2002, then people will just say that 2001 is when he cheated on his taxes. Releasing documents won't make any of this go away (see President Obama and the birth certificate).

There's no indication whatsoever of how voters have shifted in Florida and Wisconsin on this issue. There is just far too much noise in the polls to confidently make a statement like you just did. This has only become a coordinated Democrat media push in the last couple weeks, and there's just not enough polling to state what the effect is.

The IRS hasn't found anything shady in his returns. John McCain has seen a couple decades of his returns and doesn't think there is anything disqualifying. I think it's a little crazy to think that a guy who has been running for President for about 6 years has been cheating on his taxes - especially when there's no evidence of it whatsoever.

Obama hasn't even started on Romney's IRA yet

The "queen of mean" who made the public statement "only the little people pay taxes". That's the impression Romney is projecting with his tax returns. If the limit on an IRA deposit is $3,000-$5,000 per year,(I'm not a tax guy) how in the world did Romney get $21-$100 million in a IRA? That's one heck of a annual return on investment. See Bloomburg "Romneys magical IRA"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-15/the-secret-behind-r... via truxtonc

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

Nothing controversial lol

Swiss bank accounts, offshore accounts in the Caymans and Bahama's.
Let's see if Obama will tell the voters about carried interest. Romney lobbied for tax legislation that would benefit him.

I am pretty sure that ordinary people would LOVE to pay the tax rate that Romney is paying.

The Swiss bank accounts and the later revelation of Ann Romney's $3m Swiss bank account are still running.
I am pretty sure Obama will remind the voters about these things soon.

Does Romney have NO confidence in the US Dollar? LOL

And don't say it is in a blind trust, because Romney is on record as dismissing that argument. "There are always ways around blind trusts".

N.B. There doesn't have to be anything illegal in Romney's tax returns. Just some embarrassments. There must be some of those because otherwise Romney would have already released them.
George Romney was at the forefront in advocating that those running for public office should disclose their tax returns. He released 12 years.
Is Mitt going to now say his father was WRONG lol.
Romney himself called on Ted Kennedy to disclose his taxes in the 1994 Senate Race. He is on record for that too.
Sure Obama has it. He just hasn't released it yet. :)

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

yup

People tried to make a big deal about the initial return but it didn't appear to hurt Romney much in the primaries. It was a last ditch effort by Gingrich but it didn't go over like he hoped, Romney went on to win Florida, and Gingrich could never come back. Begging for tax returns is a common tactic by someone who is losing. That's why Gingrich wanted Romney's returns. That's why George Romney released his and tried to encourage others. He was losing and wanted to force competitors (and also LBJ, the potential general election opponent) to release theirs as well. That's why Mitt wanted Ted Kennedy to release his - he knew he had no chance and was hoping for a hail mary.

Nothing untoward was found in Romney's released tax returns. He paid taxes everywhere he owed taxes. There was nothing illegal or embarrassing. Democrats would just love to keep talking about an offshore account or a low tax rate, because that helps them with their overall messaging. That's what they hope to be able to show. They can make the same arguments without Romney's tax returns, but they just want to make commercials with sinister music talking about how Romney hides his money so he can pay less taxes than anyone else. It's silly.

I also don't know why people pretend that Romney's tax rate is actually that low. 15% is a pretty large effective tax rate relative to the rest of the US population. My own effective income tax rate is in the high single digits, so I definitely prefer my own rate. Romney's income tax rate is probably larger than that of 80% of people on this site, if not a lot more. To pay a higher rate than Romney, someone would probably have to have a salary that's at least 150K or 200K. Most people don't make that much money. The "middle class" doesn't pay 15% income taxes.

Tax returns don't matter to GOP

They WILL matter to Indie's though.
That's why romney is losing votes and slip sliding away in the polls.

Looks like Reid's staff decided to add some vinegar to that salt :)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/06/1117207/-Reid-Staff...

How many Dems are in Congress? They are all at it.
Quite a few Indie's read Huffy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/06/nancy-pelosi-harry-...

Not looking good for Romney is it?

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

we'll see

Romney so far has been doing fine in the polls. He's only down 2 or 3 points on average. Donations to his campaign have been massive and when he's finally able to tap into that resource (after the convention), he's going to make a strong push. I still consider Obama the favorite, but Romney can win it.

Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight has Obama 70.8% Romney 29.2%

It's a few days old but Obama was up 5.8% in a week on the Tax Returns and Bain leaving date stuff.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/aug-1-ob...

Personally I think Nate is too low for Obama, he hasn't even scratched the surface for the dirt and appalling track record of Romney.
Nate will not have genned up on the dirt on Romney - he just goes by current polls.

Obama has 3 new attack ads out today which are pretty powerful.
The best one was Newt Gingrich attacking Romney.

Romney will continue slip sliding in the polls.
Romney has got NOTHING to increase his vote. If he had anything decent he would have already started using it.
But all he and his cohorts are doing is spouting empty and false rhetoric and people know it - the Indie's do at least.
Karl Rove has advised Romney (thru Gillespie) not to go into policy specifics. Rove knows it would lose further votes.
So Romney has nothing there.

Obama has at least 50 more ads up his sleeve like the ones he released today.

Romney is rapidly becoming a laughing stock.
Was there ever a worse candidate put up by the Republican Party?
I know there have been some shockers in the past, but I cannot recall someone worse, must be many decades ago if there was a worse candidate.

If GOP are not careful they and Priebus will become laughing stocks themselves.
Time for a rethink?

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

that may be accurate

I'd put Romney a little closer to 40% right now, but we'll see. Obama has had a huge advantage on money in swing states over the past month, because Romney's not allowed to use most of his. People in those states are getting hit pretty hard with pro-Obama ads, but that will change. Spreading out the VP pick and the convention will help Romney, and those will give him a couple boosts. Then he'll start to spend this cash he's been saving up. He may yet lose, but we will see. They're not going with another candidate (especially one who voters already rejected and who voters thought had a much lower chance of beating Obama than Romney does).

Latest polls out today are very bad for Romney

and show Romney continuing to slip slide in the polls.
All except Colorado are negative for Romney.
Nate Silver has moved his odds to Obama 72% Romney 28% yesterday (before these polls came out).

We all know that Rasmussen reports Republicans 3 to 5 pts higher, simply because they poll more Republicans than warranted.
They then move back to realistic proportions near the elections to try and pretend they are accurate.
Rasmussen are Republicans shills. PPP are Democrat shills.

North Carolina (Obama will win this state' Looks like expected turn to Obama is starting.)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/no...

Colorado
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/co...

Virginia moving away
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/vi...

Wisconsin (already out of reach?)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wi...

National (Reuters/Ipsos may be an outlier, but this one is REALLY sick for Romney - WOW Obama +7. A foretaste of things to come?)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/ge...

Obama is preparing attack ads for the Romney/Ryan budget plan which is absolutely insane.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/romneys-solution-to-wide...

Romney is becoming a laughing stock. Have you really been conned into voting for Democrat Romney this cycle?
I thought you were politically savvy. Maybe not.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/will-you-be-conned-into-...

Romney will get a v brief bump from naming his VP and then slip back to where he is before it and then continue slipping further.
Like when the press put out stories that he had won the nomination in May (he hasn't and there is still a chace that GOP delegates will wake up from their insanity and elect Obama in Tampa).
I hope Romney names Paul Ryan. Obama would really have fun with that.

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all -- security, comfort, and freedom. When ... the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free."

they could have been better

but oh well. They have been going back and forth for months, and they're most likely not going to suddenly stop doing that. This race is still incredibly tight, though Obama is ahead right now.

I don't know why you still hold out hope that delegates are going to suddenly change their minds and vote for someone else. There is just no chance of that happening unless Romney gets hit by a bus or punches a baby at a campaign rally. There's just as big of a chance that Obama is not the Democratic nominee as there is that Romney is not the Republican nominee. Even if Romney is down several points in the polls at the convention, delegates aren't going to switch. And if they were to somehow drop Romney because they don't think he can beat Obama, they certainly wouldn't switch for a candidate that consistently polled worse than Romney did against Obama, and who consistently performed poorly on "most likely to beat Obama" exit polls (in other words, every single other Republican candidate this cycle).

I'm sure your asking Shazad

But, I don't think any of the things looming around Romney will be allowed to effect him. I'm sure he did all the things that people think he did but he will be like O.J., there just won't be enough proof to put him away.

Thanks Shazad

Thanks Shazad