2 votes

Why only Ron Paul Can Beat Obama Updated 08/06

http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/why-only-ron-paul-can-be...

SUMMARY

There are 4 main reasons why only Ron Paul can beat Obama in November.
The following assumes that Ron Paul gets the Republican nomination and then compares his chances against Obama with those of other GOP candidates.

1. Polls
Ron Paul is currently roughly level with the best polling other GOP candidate and all the other GOP candidates are currently significantly overstated.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_...
Ron Paul will strengthen over time, whilst all the other candidates would weaken significantly after the Tampa convention (it may well start in a small way before the convention).

2. Media Bias
The huge mainstream media bias is greatly diminished once the nomination is secured.

3. Cash
Cash becomes less of an issue due to the amount of air time candidates get in debates and interviews.
Ron Paul will at least hold his own in debates and interviews, but his underlying message is far STRONGER. I don't under-estimate Obama's debating skills.

4. Attack ads
There is really only 1 area Ron Paul is going to be attacked on - neocon scaremongering over foreign policy.
There are at least 50 areas that Obama (and the other GOP candidates) can be attacked upon, which have not been publicly aired in any meaningful sense.
I've got a library.

DETAILS

1. Polls

1.1 Gary Johnson running as 3rd party

Ron Paul is consistently level with the best GOP candidate against Obama.
These polls are misleading as they do not take account of Gary Johnson running as 3rd Party.
I believe that Gary Johnson will drop out before November, if Ron Paul is nominated.
If PPP poll data is an indicator (Obama vs Romney vs Gary Johnson) around 5 points should be taken off other GOP candidates.
(It may well become more than 5 pts as Ron Paul increases his base.)

A very significant number of Ron Paul supporters will not vote for an alternative GOP candidate.
They will write in Ron Paul or vote Gary Johnson.
Latest PPP polling with 3rd party candidates
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romneys-elec...

This means that Ron Paul already does significantly better than the other candidates against Obama.
In a latest poll Ron Paul was only 1 point behind Obama and in another 2 points ahead. He has not directed any energy YET, against Obama.

Ron Paul will strengthen over time against Obama, the other candidates will weaken.

1.2 Demographics

The electorate is :-
40% independent, 33% Democrat, 27% Republican
Ron Paul can beat Obama by securing a significant majority of Independents, a majority of Young Democrats under 30/35 and the vast majority of Republicans.

25% + 5% + 25% = 55% which is a landslide.
Ron Paul does not have to do as well as that - but he could.

Account needs to be taken of the swing states, but this is a detailed campaign issue on where to focus resources.
Electoral college map (different sites have slightly different views)
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/electoral-college-maps-r...

2. Media Bias is greatly diminished after nomination.

Assuming Ron Paul secures the nomination :-

2.1 Winner
The frequent refrain, insisting that Ron Paul cannot win cannot stick.
He has already won the Republican nomination.
Polls against Obama will show he can beat O.

2.2 Media bias
The huge media basis and near blackout is greatly diminished.
(Unless Fox is going to actively campaign against the official Republican candidate. CNN and CBS should also be more balanced.)
Some papers will also become more balanced.

At the moment the mainstream media, in almost absolute totality, is disparaging towards Ron Paul.
Of course the Democratic media will still be against him (just like any other GOP candidate).

Ron Paul is more favourably received by Independents than any other GOP candidate. He will receive more favorable coverage from more middle of the road media.

2.3 Congress

If the GOP want to do well in Congressional elections they will need to ensure that Ron Paul does as well as possible in Presidential polling.
A landslide for Ron Paul would be great for Congressional seats.

Instead of GOP candidates being almost exclusively for Romney and against Ron Paul, they will almost all have to become pro Ron Paul.
With the media coverage that entails.

3 Cash

3.1 Current situation

At the moment Ron Paul is having to selectively target areas and states where he can pick up delegates.
He does not have enough cash to battle Romney and the others everywhere.
He is outgunned 6 to 10 times in terms of cash compared to Romney (but the multiple does seem to be reducing).
The campaign team are doing a good job at staying under the radar of the heavy hitting and are using what cash they have, very effectively.

3.2 After Nomination

Ron Paul will still be significantly outgunned in terms of cash when facing Obama, however cash becomes less of an issue after the Nomination.
Ron Paul will receive a lot of air time from Presidential Debates and TV interviews - cash for ads becomes less important.

4. Attack ads
Ron Paul can put out lots of positive messages in ads (he is not currently making best use of his weapons).
Obama has empty rhetoric and more of the same.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/ron-pauls-case-for-nomin...

Military spending, when told of the current military budgets everybody wants 18 to 22% cuts to military spending, Republicans, Independents and Democrats.
This poll was conducted by saying the "defense" budget is $530bn p.a.
http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/romney-is-worse-than-oba...
The actual current spending is $931bn p.a. when related costs are taken into account. This is 25% of ALL Federal Government spending.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article31403.htm
Do we assume that the electorate want 50% cuts to achieve the circa $400bn as suggested by the above poll?
Why does the US have troops in Germany and air force bases in the UK?
Why does the US still have troops in Japan?
Why is the NSA spying on every American citizen?
Why has the DHS gone "rogue" buying 4.5 million hollow point bullets and 350,000 prison meals?
Why are there drones flying over America?
Have the Republican's gone mad with their current budget proposal? Indie's won't like it one bit - they want 20% cuts.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-20-20/trust-americ...

Ron Paul can be attacked in only one major area - neocon scaremongering over Foreign Policy.
(A lesser one is that he has never run a significant organisation. But the President gives direction and appointees make it happen.)

Obama can be attacked in a large number of areas. There was a good video recently on SOTU which tore him apart on several issues.
I have a library of about Obama 30 attack issues so far. But haven't really tried until very recently.

The Ron Paul campaign team are achieving 5 to 10 X the impact per $ spent on ads compared to other GOP campaigns.
I think Obama is smarter than other GOP candidates, but Ron Paul has much better ammunition so it can still be a significant multiple of Obama's impact per $.

5. Other Candidates

There really are only minor differences between Obama and the other three candidates.
All would increase budget deficits and the National Debt would rise to around $22tn at the end of their terms.
All are warmongering.
All are corrupt and in favor of the banking control and lobbyist big money system.

So they would have to compete with each other on pretty trivial issues.
Obama is smarter than the other 3 GOP candidates combined. He showed that last time around in defeating Hillary, the ground game he has set up and his debating skills.
And sending out a message that was "whatever you want it to be" it was sufficiently ambiguous so that different people with different views thought it was directed at them and their very specific preferred policies.

5.1 Romney

Romney has relied up to now on outspending his rivals to buy votes, due to a very considerable advantage in funding. He is spending more than he is taking in, just to be where he is in GOP race.
Obama will have more cash in November.
Romney is not liked, has no charisma, no policies and no message. He does have nice hair.

He has also had the considerable advantage of a monopoly on Fox support and pretty much a monopoly with CNN and CBS and the major papers.
ABC and NBC have been pretty quiet - they want the GOP race and the infighting to go on for a while.
NBC has stirred up a bit of trouble with GOP election rigging (Maddow) but only as it is an advantage to Obama.

Romney will only have Fox against Obama.

Romney also has the advantage of support from local party officials. They have already demonstrated that they are not averse to rigging elections.

AND yet he is doing very poorly consideing all the advantages of cash, media bias and GOP rigging elections.

Major attack points on Romney have not been aired in any meaningful way to the general public.
Obama would do so.
Romney has not done well in debates, even against Santorum. Obama would crucify him.

I have a library of about 50 issues that Romney can be attacked upon in a fight against Obama.
And perhaps another 30 more trivial points.
The differential between Obama and Romney is so small and Romney's record as Ma Governor so poor, that Obama would have no problem in slaughtering Romney and is salivating at the propect.
I am quite sure that Obama's library is larger than mine - he has been preparing far longer with more resources.

In addition Romney cannot handle tough questions. He hasn't had to deal with any in the stage managed Republican debates.
Obama would slaughter him in the Presidential debates.

Romney's record as Ma Governor
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/arti...

The spat about lobbyists -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWOFUqa6wwQ

The childish mistake over releasing his tax returns in the debate, that had to be reversed the next day.
A fiasco. A total lack of judgement. What would he be like as President facing a crisis?
I could destroy Romney in a debate - let alone a smart guy like Obama.

Romney's priviliged upbringing, his laying off of lots of workers whilst at Bain, Romney blood money - healthcare fraud at Damon, his Vietnam draft dodging, dogonroof, the letter by senior Reps questioning his candidacy will all be used by Democrats.
And quite a few others.

5.2 Someone Else

Someone else appears after deadlock at the Tampa convention.
Who?
Jeb Bush - another Bush don't make me laugh.
Sarah Palin? Ditto.
Gov Christie? Tainted by Romney.
I don't know who might spring up. I am sure in their desperation GOP will try anything.

Conclusion

The only candidate that can win against Obama is Ron Paul and he is a strong FAVORITE to do so, if nominated.

Now getting the nomination - that is a different story and a more difficult task. But it can be done.
For those in power never give up power easily.
However I believe the above analysis to be dispassionate and accurate according to the best information currently available.
If you also believe the above analysis to be a pretty fair assessment, the sooner the word gets out, the less room for maneuver the powers that be will have. I will leave that thought with you.

More details on my thoughts on the battle for the Republican Nomination http://ian56.blogspot.com/#!/2012/02/ron-pauls-end-game.html

"If freedom is what you want it is ours for the taking. Let the R3VOLUTION BEGIN." Ron Paul

Update 08/06
As Romney continues to slip up every step of the way with a very badly managed campaign to go along with his appalling track record and mountains of dirt, he is slowly but surely going down in the polls in swing states.
The mismanagement of disclosure of Tax Returns and the outright lies on Bain leaving date have already cost him in the polls and there is loads more on all sorts of topics to come from Obama.
The current Electoral College Map predicts Obama 347 Romney 191 should Romney gain the nomination.