-4 votes

Okay Delegates, This is what I think you should expect

TL;DR = I believe that, in the event that Ron Paul & Company succeed in forcing a brokered convention, Romney will lose and Sarah Palin will walk out with it.

Before anyone starts complaining, I wouldn't post this if I didn't think that it was already too late to matter. Nor would I post it if the actions of the Romney campaign didn't imply that they already suspected this....

For many months now, the media has been pondering why Ron Paul would be so damned determined to accumulate delegates (and keep them) heading into a convention for which he has already admitted that he cannot win. It's a good question that I'd been pondering as well. The common theories seem to fall flat to me. The idea that he's doing it solely for an effect on the national platform & a prime time speaking slot is rediculous; the platform because everyone knows that Romney would pay it lip service only until he won the election (or more likely did not) and my own impressions of Ron Paul is that he is a very politically savvy player but doesn't have the ego for a loser's final speech before retirement. For that matter, he'll get plenty of attention for his speech on Sunday before the convention. It also doesn't explain the Romney campaign's willingness to risk alienating us Paulites (not a few of whom are under 30 and former Obama voters) by using legal challenges to attempt to deny Paul his 5 state plurality. By my own research, Ron Paul has (at least) seven states for his plurality, because a plurality of delegates is different than a majority of same, nor is it particularly related to who those delegates are 'bound' to, since nominations from the floor are different than that actual roll-call vote. Of course, this is all irrelevant if Romney actually has greater than 1144 votes on the first ballot, but his actions imply that if he does have that many it's not enough over that number for him to feel comfortable in a first round victory. Yet, Santorum also has a five state plurality, and the Romney campaign has done nothing to prevent his name being placed into nomination. Neither Paul nor Santorum have anywhere near the number of delegates to challenge Romney under normal circumstances, even added together they couldn't make much of a dent and there is no way that any of them are going to broker for a Paul victory, and Paul knows this. Gingrich has some delegates that he won't release early because he & Paul have a bad history, and Gingrich has publicly stated that he doesn't like Romney on a personal level. Santorum is more likely to make a deal with Romney for some prominate position in the adminstration in exchange for releasing his delegates for the first vote, which would scuttle a last ditch effort to nominate Paul from the floor.

Furthermore, Ron Paul has been running an education campaign like he did in 2008; not one intended to be broadly desireable to the Republican base, which is a little different than how he ran his local campaigns to be relected. This leads me to believe that not only does Ron Paul not think that him winning the nomination at the convention is possible, it's not even desireable. He just wants to retire and let someone else take over, and I don't think that his son is ready for that himself.

Considering all this, I contemplated what was the real goal for Ron Paul, and concluded that he is still trying to force a brokered convention, just not for himself. While it's never happened before, there is nothing in the rules that would prevent a candidate from asking his delegates to nominate someone else entirely; and this is just the kind of long shot chance that Paul might attempt right before retirement.

So the next question then became, who?

I came up with a set of criteria for said person, as follows....

1) Must be someone that could crediblely be endorsed by Paul, without a significant minority of his fans responding with a "WTF?" reaction. IMHO, this would require someone who is already fairly well liked by the liberty wing of the Tea Party.

2) Must be someone with an existing national 'brand', who's name is fairly well known, particularly across the conservative spectrum. This eliminates Gary Johnson, even if ballot access laws didn't prohibt him from the Republican nomination since he has already accepted the Libertarian Party nomination.

3) Should be someone who didn't compete for the nomination in the primary, since otherwise enough of the unbound delegates in Tampa would think "that person already lost to Romney" and vote for Romney to throw him over the 1144 on the first round.

4) Should not be a person who has spoken ill of Ron Paul or of the Tea Party movement.

5) Should be a person who appeals, generally, to both sides of the Tea Party (i.e. both the libertarians & the social conservatives)

Bonus if said person has some demographic advantage over old white men.

The only person that I could think of that fits this profile is Sarah Palin, and after coming to that conclusion I discovered some interesting things.

Sarah Palin....

1) ...has never endorsed Romney in any real sense.

2) ...has never spoken ill of the Paul movement, at least not during this cycle; and has repeatedly warned the other candidates to not alienate the Paulites during public speaking events over the past six months or so.

3) ...seems to have kept four or five of her campaign team on retainer via SarahPAC, which could be contractural but that seems odd during an election year. While none of these five appear to be involved in any campaigns, they are not idle either as several of them have had guest spots on FoxNews & FoxBusiness networks.

4) ...has been doing an excellent job of keeping herself in the limelight over the past six months, including a great average in endorsing Tea PArty type people for Senate primaries.

5) ...has significantly educated herself with regard to national and international issues since being thrown onto the national stage without a safety net four years ago.

6) ...has openly stated that she believes that she could win the nomination if there was a brokered convention.

So there it is. I think that Ron Paul has had a secret deal with Sarah Palin since the fall, that if she did not run in the primary (and thus bleed off liberty minded votes from the Paul campaign) then if a brokered convention were possible Ron Paul would do everything in his power to get her name on the nominating ballot. And what does Ron Paul get out of it? His son gets first refusal for VP. And no, I don't think that Rand nor most of the Paul campaign staff were at all aware of this "plan B".

Thus, Sarah Palin, not Ron Paul, is my Dark Horse candidate. And if Ron succeeds in this endeavor and gets Sarah's name officially on the ballot, I believe that she will win it [i]so long as Romney cannot get 1144 on the first ballot[/i].

Some of my links follow, although in many cases the part that I think supports my view is not evident. This might be confirmation bias, but here it is, nonetheless, in no particular order....

http://libertycrier.com/politics/a-brokered-convention-in-20...

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-ron-paul-rebellion/87932/

http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/08/abc-tea-party-seeks-t...

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/05/07/who-is-th...

http://rantpolitical.com/2012/08/02/our-odds-of-beating-obam...

http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/08/how-candidates-react-...

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/sarah-palin-defends-ron-paul-hes-...

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/01/palin_warms_to_p...

http://alaskapride.blogspot.com/2011/12/alaska-political-pre...
Close! but no cigar!

http://libertymaven.com/2008/10/27/the-great-libertarian-opp...
Again, very close. Back in 2008.

http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2012/08/ron_paul_s...

http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawaken...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/how-sarah-p...

http://www.dailypaul.com/244865/a-game-plan-for-tampa-tac-we...

http://www.palinquakes.com/open_convention

http://conservatives4palin.com/2012/07/robert-ringer-rinosau...

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_724_2595.aspx

http://www.usnews.com/news/washington-whispers/slideshows/10...

https://dougwead.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/will-sarah-palin-r...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/sarah-palin/912751...

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/politics/2012-election/predic...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/912887...

http://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2012/03/21/pp...




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Looks like I was wrong

Because otherwise I would have expected Ron Paul to bring it up during his speech at the Tampa rally today. Oh, well. It was always a long shot prediction anyway.

Maybe so,

but well thought out and articulated in any case.

Good try, considering how far off into uncharted territory
we are here.

you are wrong

Forget Palin - she's won't win against Obama (NO matter what Conservatives say) she'll never be elected any where. SNL made sure of that and the Media in General. BUT I THINK Judge Andrew Napolitano COULD DO all of this AND BEAT Obama. NEO-Cons I know love the guy, because he's a Constitutional Lawyer... - I won't vote Republican in November unless Paul or The Judge were the nominee... - everyone else in the Republican Party are just pure sellouts ( I have other stronger words like criminals, debase crazies, etc..) Oh but I digress....!

"Many of us agree that you and I have no right to use coercion against people who don't owe us anything. The same prohibition applies to groups of people who constitute the government. The reason is simple: unjust acts do not become just when legalized. "

Ron Paul is in to STAY RELEVENT enough to get Media Attention

You are over-thinking this. It's really quite simple & logical.
Ron Paul has to remain relevent to top stories i.e., newsworthy at the very least, to get his Audit the Fed bill pass Congress and now the Senate and into legislation, and at the most to win the nomination from the floor and to eclipse the Progressive/Neo-con agenda of bankrupting the country out of existence by pushing those fat Hogs away from the trough known as the Federal reserve Bank.

See? Small paragraph!

Wrong

Either this is a cut and paste or you really have no idea what's going on. Gingrich already released his delegates saying they should vote for Romney.

Keepin' it real.

He released his delegates on

He released his delegates on Wendsday or Thursday. Note that I wrote this post well before that. But it still doesn't change much, other than imply Gingrich got something for it, since the released candidates can vote for whomever they choose.

Palin is a cheerleader

not a serious political and intellectual heavyweight.

Even if Palin were to steal the nomination in the scenario you lay out, she would get destroyed in the general election. Too many people on the left and right know that Palin is not even close to being up for the job...if this post is even at all serious.

C'mon.....

Palin has destroyed More Establishment Republican Careers

-Like the former Alaskan Governor and former U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski (R). After Sarah became Govenor, she went after corrupt legislators, and with the FBI's help, put four of them in prison, indicted six more and the "Corrupt Bastard's Club" as they arrogantly called themselves (even had hats made with CBC on the front!) suddenly found it no fun anymore.

She slammed more corrupt politicians into jail than the establishment Republicans, Progressives, Dems & Obama all smashed together in one sticky lump, don't cha know.

the political career Palin

has surely destroyed is her own. She is not that well educated and not that smart. Palin is a war monger. Palin is an Israel firster. Palin is a NeoCon. Palin's hub and I think Palin herself..backed Nute.

If Palin was so smart and such a freedom fighter why is she a FAUX news shill? Why has Palin not thrown her support behind Ron?

Palin is a political opportunist that is trying to parlay her popularity into making a boat load of money. I think she is a fraud. Besides this is the Daily Paul...doesn't Palin have a fan site you can go to?

Interesting premise. And

Interesting premise. And well cited thank you. Although it appears to me that the GOP status quo is scrambling to do everything in their power to have a Romney coronation rather then an actual convention where candidates can actually have the opportunity to challenge the presumptive nominee.

Short sighted of them...as, historically, presumptive nominees that win on the first ballot only have had a 33% change of winning the general election, whereas, candidates nominated in brokered conventions have been much more sucessful with an 88% chance of winning the general.

http://www.dailypaul.com/250773/brokered-conventions-produce...

I know that Ron Paul knows this, does Sarah Palin? Probably. And if the Republican staus quo know this then what is their true agenda? To purposely lose the general election? Why? Do they believe that a collapse is imminent and unstoppable and they do not want an Republican in the WH when it falls?

Maybe the GOP status quo want the Dems to take the hit so they can positions themselves to grab power in 2016.

But what do I know! I know I would like to make sure our movement is seen as the answer to the future not more status quo Republicans.

Either way, coronation or brokered convention (I hope, I hope!) it will be interesting to watch how this all plays out over the next week. We will see if you are right with your prognostications!

If my need to be RIGHT is greater than my desire for TRUTH, then I will not recognize it when it arrives ~ Libertybelle

Unless there is a decent chance at a brokered convention....

...then they will not even try this. Otherwise, we will know by 6pm tonight, because this Sunday's rally is Ron Paul one and only chance to endorse Palin, and call on his supporters to "draft" her. Only the campaigns know how many delegates they might be able to bring to bear.

Tampa - Be There!

I marked you up Moonshadow. Not because I think you are right - but because I like creative thinking! And for all her war-talk Palin is still by a long shot better than Romney. :-)

But when it comes to Tampa - I think you, like everybody else, is just going to have to wait and see. The main thing is - be there!

TAMPA~

I'm there in heart and spirit if not in flesh and I have signed up to watch the live feed. best of all to everyone!

Garnet
Daughter of 1776 American Revolutionists

tasmlab's picture

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

This is funny for about a minute:

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

You have to click around.

If Palin gets the nomination it will be grand proof that either the ruling elite, the people, or God himself has a sick sense of humor.

The net benefit of a Palin nomination over Romney would only be that it would make for better television.

Currently consuming: Harry Browne, Free Domain Radio; JT Gatto and Holt; Wii U

Hergelian Dialectic

Create the problem, get the solution you wanted in the first place.

The law cannot make a wicked person virtuous…God’s grace alone can accomplish such a thing.
Ron Paul - The Revolution

Setting a good example is a far better way to spread ideals than through force of arms. Ron Paul

If Palin was nominated & it came down to that sort of reality...

I would vote for Palin then if Ron Paul endorsed her. No hesitation.
If this sort of situation was forced out and Paul did not want to run for President, I would for the 'sake' of the future vote for Palin.

We would also not leave the floor until one of the Pauls agreed to be in her cabinet, that is certain. But yes, given our limited options and the time being short Palin would suffice.
For example, we now have solid evidence the Democratic Party is preparing to become the "ONE WORLD COMMUNIST" party and suck in all the leftovers including Bush, McCain, Harmon, Rubio, Rubin, Sandusky, Michael Ledeen, Cheney, Clinton, Ryan, Ridge, Holder etc.

For reference, all above came out of original democrats anyway and openly brag about their treason. Then this "One World Government Party" will start acting like a would-be dictator and we need some way to subdue them. Palin is a sure way to do that. She has no ties to Goldman Sachs or anything else, her stand with "Israel" rhetoric is fine because she simply wants Israel to fight its own battles; she would like to Audit the Fed and repeal legal tender law with the help of legal constitutional experts. She's by no means ideal, but will prosecute a lot of these crooks above plus enact the path to end the Fed.

She will also prosecute Obama, don't count on anyone else who will take such a stand because they're in the same wing as Obama. This of course means Palin may not win, or if that was somehow possible, Obama would return in 2016 worse than ever. Either way it would ignite the liberty movement to have Palin in there, and ignite the states to nullify all illegal laws. Something we have to do. It would also eliminate any economic collapse/FEMA camp nonsense.

Its interesting...

but it challenges what we know about Paul's integrity. Would he knowingly pawn our hard work and donations off to Palin. Second, there is the chance that Palin senses the possibility she could be a dark horse and is just trying to put herself in position to capitalize off a brokered convention ...in case? Maybe I am over simplifying this. It is definitely interesting.

No..

It's always been about the message. Ron Paul sounded the alarm.. we're heading into a NWO global government that will be ONE PARTY/Democratic Party, like Communist China UNLESS the GOP is somehow "restored", as my committee was empty seats, and I believe that is the case in most places across America, and why the dirty tricks, desperation.

Conservatives are going to have to unite somehow.. and everything I'm reading about Palin is that she is a uniter (go figure).

Here she is endorsing Rand... http://www.randpaul2010.com/2010/02/sarah-palin-endorses/

Could it be a Palin - Rand brokered convention??????

Palin is a mccain vp pick, neo con and tea party co-opter

Your veering off track Granger. You need to get the train back on the rails. Trust Ron Paul. Trust his integrity. Trust yours.

Don't let all of our hard work be stolen by Palin and the establishment again.

It's Paul or Nothing.

But it's NOT Paul or nothing.

No matter how much you say that, it's FALSE. It is Paul, or Romney, or Obama, or Johnson, those are your choices right now, "nothing" is not on the ballot. Those choices may change before November, but if you don't vote, we still get one of them. I for one do not want Obama or Romney.

Freedom in our lifetime! - fiol.us

says you

I can write in Paul.... or stay home and do NOTHING. Gary Johnson and the rest of those statists aren't getting my vote.

I can't be in the Paul or Nothing Camp

I did what Ron Paul asked ALL of us to do, campaigned as a Ron Paul Republican, qualified, and was sworn into a Mendocino County GOP Central Committee seat, which I was told to sign three forms in my county clerk's office, one was a loyalty oath to MY GOP, which by-laws states, under: REMOVAL, that supporting, campaigning, endorsing anyone other than the GOP nomination is grounds to remove me. The CA sec of state has Romney as THE GOP Nominee on her web page.

The committee is well aware I am a Ron Paul Republican and it would make their day for me to say, "Ron Paul or no one". They would have me removed and fill my seat with a Neocon, which puts liberty back on the streets.

Now maybe you, like many here, think grassroots is where liberty belongs.. but if you REALLY REALLY want liberty like I do, (and that's NOT a civil war imo), you would keep that seat, to not only keep the Neocons marginalized, but to have the power to vet candidates, delegates and issues.

I made my choice, to do what Ron Paul asked me to do, and unfortunately, that is part of the deal. I'm keeping my seat and suggest you get one, if you can.

Granger

I have never disagreed with your strategy to keep your seat. I have watched you tirelessly defend it time and again on here and agree w it. Ultimately my point was..don't talk yourself into this Palin theory before you hear it from the horses mouth and don't pressume where that mailer came from. I appreciate all you have done for the campaign. You are an exceptional Ron Paul supporter.

I'm getting over my Palin shock and awe

My committee had four new people suddenly show up, and they were acting "stealth". Few contacted me after the meeting and told me how much they liked Ron Paul. They are seeking to be seated. I was hoping that Ron Paul supporters were waking up, but I'm now thinking that is not the case. I belive what I am seeing are Palin grassroots going for those seats by appealing to me and the other Ron Paul Republican.

Thank you for the support and kind words Ed. It hasn't been an easy road on this campaign trail, but it's been a good fight, with the best part being meeting those who are passionatly committed as I strive to be.

God Bless you!

The perfect "deal"

Chair: I know that you oppose Widget D5 and fully support Widget A1. But I will let you keep your seat if you support and endorse Widget D5 because all of us support Widget D5. If you do not support Widget D5, then we will remove you from your seat.

Seat Person: Ok, I will support Widget D5. I will explain to the supporters of Widget A1 that I have to support Widget D5, otherwise I will lose my seat. They will be OK with that.

Chair: Good. Now remember, if you even attempt to support Widget A1, then your seat will be taken.

Seat Person: Ok.

Ron Paul, at Texas Convention, said something to the effect: What good is it to unite behind the wrong reason.

Josie The Outlaw http://www.josietheoutlaw.com/

"What if the American people learn the truth" - Ron Paul

Come on

I'm serious about WHERE IS RICHARD GILBERT?

I wrote to the CA Secretary of State, Debra Bowen, nearly three weeks ago asking her how Romney became THE GOP Nominee before the RNC. Talk about cricketts. I asked Richard, "You live in CA, why aren't you asking her? Why aren't you doing something to release CA delegates?" More cricketts.

As long as the CA Secretary of State has ROMNEY listed on her web page as THE CA GOP NOMINEE.. the CA GOP is going to hold me (and ALL committee members) to that KNOWING Ron Paul delegates truely LOVE their candidate, while they/ the neocons, don't love any of them.

I just keep reminding myself, how important that seat is, Romney or not.

To me, the shame just isn't the CA GOP/ Sec of State, Gilbert, but those self proclaimed grassrooters who have no compassion, understanding or support for those of us who actually did what Ron paul asked ALL of us to do.

Here is the "real" deal:

First, forget about gilbert. Seriously.

Second, I completely understand what you are saying. What I am concerned about is how you utilize it. Granger, I wish you the best of luck. Seriously, I do. I sincerely hope and pray that you will utilize your position to advance the Liberty movement and not get sucked into the gop rhetoric.

There are things that you can do to promote Liberty and not offend the other members or lose your seat. But it requires tact, and careful, considerate thinking before you act. It can be done.

Yes, we absolutely need those seats filled. But only if those seats are filled by those who will not sacrifice Liberty in any way, shape or form. Otherwise, it is a wasted seat. Btw, PM sent.

Josie The Outlaw http://www.josietheoutlaw.com/

"What if the American people learn the truth" - Ron Paul

The REAL deal

That seat is for ONE real reason, to advance LIBERTY/ Ron Paul's message.

There are going to be wins and losses. There are going to be situations none of us can do anything about, such as the Sec of the State putting Romney as THE GOP nomunee weeks before the RNC. But there are going to be situations that me and Ron Paul committee seats can do something about.

It may not always be as much as we, or you, would have hoped for (or even demanded) but the fact that we are seated and working WORKING to RESTORE AMERICA, is far more than if we had not done what Ron Paul asked ALL of us to do, in the first place.

There are so many self proclaimed "purists" here, who didn't join the GOP, didn't even try to do what Ron Paul asked. I'm not better than them, and they far outnumber me and Ron Paul Republicans like me, but at least we are actually WORKING for liberty and not just talking about it. After all, it's us (if they are smart enough) who they will be coming to to get LIBERT issues ON THEIR BALLOTS.

With or without them, that's the way it is. With or without Ron Paul as president. With or without Romney or Palin or even Obama.

The amount of support and promised votes for Obama that don't get down voted.. should tell you something about who's on DP. Worry about them, not me.

My loyalty oath is for an election, not an agenda.

Loyalty Oath

Loyalty Oath for an election can be good or bad. In this case, romney wants loyalty oaths from people to vote for him. He ain't getting one from me.

There is nothing wrong with an agenda if it is for all of the right reasons. Agenda's help plan for the future. Think of it as an outline :-)

I hope that as we go back and forth, it helps you to hone your thoughts, and skills as a writer. gop are on their toes. We must go over their heads :-)

Josie The Outlaw http://www.josietheoutlaw.com/

"What if the American people learn the truth" - Ron Paul

Looks like I'm not the only

Looks like I'm not the only one here that has been thinking along similar lines....

http://www.dailypaul.com/214981/sarah-palin-tips-her-hand
http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/16/sarah-palin-tips-her-hand/...