31 votes

Paul vs Obama Poll #2 Results

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

19 August 2012

Contact:
James L Rushing
jameslrushing@cox.net

Ron Paul Can Beat Obama And Romney Can't

A national Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted 14 August 2012, reveals 41% of likely voters would choose Ron Paul over Barack Obama for President.

The average of all the major polls, as reported on RealClearPolitics.com, has Obama leading Romney by 3.5%. Obama leads Romney 237 to 191 in the Electoral College, and InTrade has Obama 57% and Romney 42%. Romney can't beat Obama and Ron Paul can.

Ron Paul's high rating in this national poll provides evidence for a compelling question the Delegates should ask at the Republican Nominating Convention in Tampa, Florida: Why nominate Romney if he can't win? The polls show, even after his massive media campaign, Romney is still losing to Obama and the polls show, with a media campaign, Ron Paul can beat Obama.
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Poll #2

National Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
Conducted August 14, 2012
By Pulse Opinion Research

1* If the Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?

45% Romney
47% Obama
4% Some other candidate
2% Not sure

2* Suppose in this year’s Presidential Election you had a choice between Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat Barack Obama?

41% Paul
47% Obama
8% Some other candidate
5% Not sure

3* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Mitt Romney 26% Very favorable
20% Somewhat favorable
20% Somewhat unfavorable
30% Very unfavorable
3% Not sure

4* Barack Obama 37% Very favorable
16% Somewhat favorable
10% Somewhat unfavorable
36% Very unfavorable
2% Not sure

5* Ron Paul 13% Very favorable
29% Somewhat favorable
24% Somewhat unfavorable
25% Very unfavorable
10% Not sure

6* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
8% Somewhat disapprove
39% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

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News Release 13 August

Attention RNC Delegates! Ron Paul beats Obama and Romney with 58% favorability in national poll.

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POLL #1 NEWS RELEASE
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

13 August 2012

Contact
James Rushing
JamesLRushing@cox.net

New Poll: 45% Vote Ron Paul For President With 58% Favorability.

In a new poll conducted by Pulse Opinion Research matching up presidential candidates Barack Obama and Ron Paul, 45% of one thousand likely voters across America said they would vote Ron Paul for President.

58% of those surveyed have a favorable view of Ron Paul, while just 36% have an unfavorable view. Compare this to Mitt Romney (50% favorable, 45% unfavorable) and Barack Obama (51% favorable, 48% unfavorable). Ron Paul is viewed in a favorable light by significantly more people than Obama or Romney.

The "likely voters" were asked the following question: "Suppose in this year's Presidential Election you had a choice between Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat Barack Obama?"
The results are: 45% Ron Paul and 47% Barack Obama. (+/-3%)

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Poll #1 Top Line Numbers

National Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
Conducted August 5, 2012
By Pulse Opinion Research

1* If the Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?

48% Romney
46% Obama
4% Some other candidate
2% Not sure

2* Suppose in this year’s Presidential Election you had a choice between Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat Barack Obama?

45% Paul
47% Obama
6% Some other candidate
2% Not sure

3* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Mitt Romney 24% Very favorable
26% Somewhat favorable
21% Somewhat unfavorable
24% Very unfavorable
5% Not sure

4* Barack Obama 35% Very favorable
16% Somewhat favorable
10% Somewhat unfavorable
38% Very unfavorable
1% Not sure

5* Ron Paul 17% Very favorable
41% Somewhat favorable
21% Somewhat unfavorable
15% Very unfavorable
7% Not sure

6* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

34% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
8% Somewhat disapprove
39% Strongly disapprove
2% Not sure

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 3 percentage points with a 95%
level of confidence
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I'm confused..

The last question on the 2nd poll results only add up to 61%..

__
Formerly Tebowtime195
My blog: http://tebowtime95.wordpress.com
NEWEST BLOG POST: 'The Daily Paul is Inspired by Ron Paul (September 10th, 2012)' - My thoughts on the whole deal with the 'Inspired by Ron Paul' picture being removed from the Daily Pa

To narrow it down...

The reason Ron Paul's ratings aren't as high as they should be is because millions still don't know he exists, courtesy of our "fair & balanced" news networks. But if Ron was to get the nomination and be in the spotlight, then he'd kick ass....

LIKE A SIR!
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"It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from his government." - Thomas Paine

(╮°-°)╮┳━┳ (╯°□°)╯┻━┻ "RON PAUL 2012 DAMNIT!"

News Release Ready

Please comment on proposed News Release.See Forum Post above.

Survey 2 Highlights and Notes:

Paul gets 6% more Independents against Obama than Romney does; and 4% less vote for Obama with Paul than Romney; for a total of 10%. More Republicans vote for Obama if Romney is the nominee.

In the first survey we saw increase among Republicans from Romney to Paul; Other 2% -> 7% and Not Sure 0% -> 2% (total 7%). This time we see 1% -> 12%, and 1% -> 4% (total 14%). Disregarding the ‘protest response’, Paul beats Romney among Republicans by 2%.

In the first survey the weighting was RDI 35/35/30. This survey is 33/36/31.

In reality Paul is beating Obama:

Paul - 47.05%
Obama - 45.7%

Romney is losing to Obama:

Romney - 45.6%
Paul - 46.55%

Don’t Repeat & Replace Obamacare
Repeal & Replace The Presumptive Nominee
Only A Popular Incumbent Will Defeat Mrs. Bill In 2016

Typo Correction

I apologise for the unproofread cut & paste. The last part should read:

Romney is losing to Obama:

Romney - 45.6%
Obama - 46.55%

Don’t Repeat & Replace Obamacare
Repeal & Replace The Presumptive Nominee
Only A Popular Incumbent Will Defeat Mrs. Bill In 2016

Because Dr. Paul

Quote:
"So why nominate Romney if the polls show he can't win and our polls show that Paul can."

Because Dr. Paul stops the gravy train that so many have become accustomed to.

Live Free Or Die

Preface: "Despite Not Actively Campaigning"

I think you are right in how to frame this. Despite not actively campaigning, Paul only slightly behind Romney and Obama.

Jack Wagner

this will not make it easy...

to make the argument that Romney can't beat Obama but Paul can. That's twice in a row that Romney has been 4% ahead of Paul. Sure the confidence interval is 3%. But when you combine the two polls, the total number of respondents doubles, and the confidence interval drops from 3% to 2%. No matter how you look at these two polls and how you combine the information, they make a very strong argument that Mitt Romney has larger support than Ron Paul right now. Just looking at these polls, it's now about a 98-99% probability (at least) that Romney leads Paul relative to Obama. This is just not going to prove the point you want it to.

just imagine....

if Paul was considered by most as an active, very possible candidate, unlike what the MSM has been doing.If he was getting coverage like Mitt he would be blowing these pulls outa the water

coverage like Mitt...

You mean, like 90% of the major broadcast and cable news networks, newspapers, etc., bashing on him constantly? Republican candidates are always fighting a major battle in general elections in this country. If Ron Paul was the Republican nominee, he would be the one being criticized nonstop. You think they wouldn't talk about the newsletters every other night, no matter how well you feel those arguments have been debunked? You think they wouldn't talk about how he wants your Grandma to die, or how he wants poor people to starve, or how he's going to take away all the money from teachers so your kids don't learn to read? It doesn't matter that those things are not true. He would be constantly fighting against those narratives. He could say "Sayonara" to any positive approval ratings. Negative campaigning always kills a candidate's positives. They would turn him into the crazy Grandpa who you couldn't trust to lead the country. As much as you think more coverage would help him, it would be a pretty huge double edged sword. This is a long-winded way of saying that there's also a good chance his polls would go down if it got to a one on one race against Obama.

any publicity is good

any publicity is good publicity.

as long as your name is being repeated 100 times per day, people will still vote for you over the no-name guy because they're familiar with your name.

reedr3v's picture

All you say about attacks is correct. but after they

have exhausted many similar diatribes against Romney/Ryan, the public may see more easily that it's the same DNC talking points. And since RP would then have to get more air time, the public would hear directly his words. It could well have a galvanizing effect as did the 2007 Republican debates when so many heard him for the first time.

There is no way to know until we make it happen. Even if we could not defeat the DNC machine, RP would still have the amazing opportunity to educate even more of the people who actually think and are looking for new solutions.

maybe so

But in the hypothetical world we're talking about, there was never a Romney/Ryan, because Ron Paul beat them long ago. So instead of hearing for the past several months about how Romney is evil and hates black people and wants children to get sick and die without insurance, we would have been hearing the same about Ron Paul. The public would hear more from Paul, but he may not capture everyone's hearts, just like he was unable to win over Republican voters in these primaries. Of course, maybe he would. But it's just not going to happen at this point. Dedication to him and his cause is admirable, but I just hope people aren't despondent in a couple weeks when he doesn't win the nomination. The writing has been on the wall for several months and many are still holding out hope.

It is not about winning or loosing

it is how you fight the fight. Instead of sitting around and moaning and groaning about how we cant or he cant we get out and we do something. What do you do out side of coming on here with the negative attitude. Just fight the fight and let the end take care of its self.
By your attitude we most defiantly loose. By ours we at least have a chance. So if you are not going to help then go find some where else to spread your negative. We are full up.

fight the fight

but also recognize that you can pick your fights and that there will be future fights. If you identify a fight that cannot be won even with a kamikaze attack, and you know that future battles are coming up, it may be wise to pull back. Delegates going to Tampa should consult with the Ron Paul campaign as to what fights to pick and what punches to throw in those fights.