How will Paul do in Michigan. Lots of potential Democratic voters since there will be no Democratic primary, but he's not campaigning there this weekend.
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Just anecdotal but...
I'm in Michigan and it surprises me how much everyone I'm around wants him. I speak with people about issues related to politics and I sometimes tiptoe because I don't want to push myself on anyone. I might say something like "Not that I'm trying to convince you or anything, but it was interesting to me that foxnews is censoring Paul." The response I get is "I love Paul as well." It's happened multiple times. The majority of my team at work likes him, and some of them are real liberals. I always assume I'm unlikely to bump into another Paul supporter, since supposedly he's only at 5%, but it doesn't seem to work out that way.
I think he could possibly hit...
10%+ maybe even a little bit higher (maybe catch Huckleberry Hound for 3rd) All the polls seem to indicate a nice increase in the numbers over 3 or 4 days ago. The poll numbers we are seeing probably don't include registered Democrats (open primary state so we can vote in either of the primaries) and we are bound to pick up some of their vote because they really don't have a say in until the general election because Dem. Governor Granholm tried to outmuscle the parties and got huge sanctions (0 delegates for dems, I believe only 1/2 usual number for GOP) slapped down on us. I think we could even pick up some Dem's voting for the Dr. with them mistakenly thinking that he would be an easier opponent to face in the general elections.
We need 20% in Michigan!
We need to get democrats voting for RP in Michigan! If we don't draw 20% of them then we're cooked.
Michigan
I think Paul will do suprisingly well, that is, if his vote isn't supressed and held at 9%.
I think the results from the
I think the results from the Michigan primary will be disappointing but illuminating, as I lived in Michigan for the first 33 years of my life, and if there is a capitol of conformity, groupthink and sheeple-ness, then Michigan is certainly it (well, the Lower Peninsula anyway, which is 98% of the state's population). We can take the results from Michigan to reflect the MINIMUM level of support that Ron Paul has nationwide, but I wouldn't expect much more than that.
The way I see it
The best thing we can expect coming out of Michigan is a Romney loss. If I understand correctly, Michigan is a winner take all state. If Romney were to loose, his campaign would be faced with having to decide whether or not they stood a real chance going into Super Tuesday with no wins.
With so many candidates still on the Republican ticket, there is very little chance that Ron Paul will win Michigan. The only possibility for extra votes is disgruntled Democrats wanting to have a meaningful vote since there is no way for Dem candidates to get delegates. Unfortunately, I doubt there will be enough to make much of a difference. I hope I'm wrong.
Ron Paul has had very little face time on non-cable channels and unless one has the internet, they probably have no idea who he is or where he stands on the issues. Whether or not a candidate is electable is still a major consideration for voters. If they don't see his name day after day, there is good chance he is not being considered a viable candidate by many.
Answer for Michigan question
GenBeau I think overall, turnout in Michigan's primaries will be very light. Mitt was greeted by a whopping crowd of 150 here for his kickoff event after the NH primaries. If anything, the apathy will work in Doc Paul's favor. Just fiddling with the numbers, our donors per million were just under Iowa's but our population is x 3. If you go by my fuzzy-math/voodoo economic model, I predict RP gets 30-35,000 votes. He might not win but he's got a golden chance at a bronze. (They said the same thing about the '80 olympic hockey team!) Let's cross out fingers.
GenBeau