WTA
In the 'how to spend the donations' argument, one clear fact emerges. Go this this site
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008
and you will realize that from now on, more than half of all contests are WTA, that is Winner Take All, either at the state or district level. Few delegates are proportional to vote totals, like Massachusetts for example.
What that means friends is Dr. Paul will have to do some winning and soon. Until I dug into this, I was under the impression that we could be a force by climbing, by stacking a couple of third places, throw in Maine for a 2nd place, maybe Nevada, and go into Super Tuesday 3rd in delegates. We may go into Super Tuesday 4th or even 3rd in votes (optimistic guess), but that could mean 6th in delegates. Florida is statewide WTA for example, lots of delegates.
Moral of the story? Slow and steady would be great, we could wait for candidates to fall and then be one of 2 or 3 left standing after Feb. 5, able to claim 'this is a long fight for delegates, and we're not giving up.' But slow and steady won't win delegates. Spend money now.
-JP
Winner Take All
California isn't a WTA state anymore, so Paul has some good chances here even if he can't win the state.
Attrition
Many of the delegates being won are for candidates who are going to start dropping out due to lack of money and pressure from the powers-that-be to drop out.
Ron Paul won't be one of them, and he will have an opportunity to win delegates at convention if he doesn't score a break-through before then. This is one of those things that can change over night.
He's already powerful enough to panic the others, he's beat two of them and he's affecting the debate. He can buy air-time in advance and force the others to pay more or use less effective timeslots.
Do the work and don't give up. We're doing fine.
IMissLiberty
IMissLiberty
That's a good point.
Do you have any links to the inside-baseball details of delegates and their switch-ability?
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
RP's Fundraising Director Message from...
Ron Paul is in the thick of this race. Almost 30,000 proud Americans already have cast their ballots for Ron Paul in both Iowa and New Hampshire:
1. Romney 103,755 30%
2. McCain 102,361 29%
3. Huckabee 66,876 19%
4. Paul 29,648 9%
5. Giuliani 24,151 7%
6. Thompson 18,712 5%
We must do everything – absolutely everything – that we can to win the Republican nomination for Ron Paul. And no one involved in any way with this campaign can afford to not give 100%. It’s going to take all of us, working independently, but working together – from every staff member here in Arlington, to our Meetup organizers in Chattanooga and our donors in California.
Above all else, there are two critical things for you to focus on:
1. Canvass, Canvass, Canvass! We are trying to win a nationwide presidential election, but the revolution will be won one precinct at a time. This country is made up of approximately 180,000 precincts, so the most important thing that you can do is take ownership of your own area. Remember, winning a majority of delegates starts in your precinct.
Winning elections is not easy. But Ron Paul has an invaluable asset that no one else has – YOU. If you work as productively as possible within your precinct, we can get out the vote as effectively as possible on Election Day. This means that canvassing, above everything else, is top priority. Take charge in your area and become the leader of your precinct now: https://voters.ronpaul200....
2. Donate. This campaign is financed through your contributions, and only through your contributions. Unlike other campaigns, special interests do not have influence here. Therefore, Ron Paul’s ability to win this race is up to you. Winning on Super Tuesday requires television ads, direct mailers, phone banking, staff, radio ads, and local offices and organizations.
How much of this we can do depends on you. This is your campaign.
Help Ron Paul by donating today: https://www.ronpaul2008.c....
This contest is just getting started. It’s up to all of us whether it finishes in a way that would make George Washington proud.
Jonathan Bydlak
Fundraising Director
Ron Paul 2008
Ok, so now this post is
both on this thread and in my email in-box.
Well aware of the numbers, thanks anyway:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/23494
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
Latest Nevada poll
shows RP has lost ground there since November's 9%.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_research_2000_nevada_cauc...
If something doesn't seriously change in some of the January contests, we will not have a top 3 finish to speak of, and the delegates not gained (see orig post) will be even more of a problem. Not good. I'm a precinct capt in Mass. and will get personally involved in Maine. But I'm more concerned than ever. -JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
Polls
Two words: Frank Luntz.
Remember NH? Hilly was losing badly to Obama. Surprize!
So we're going to win Nevada, great!
I'm happy now.
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.
And conventions,
are steeped in local politics, where the old cliche "fatcats in smoke-filled rooms" still thrives. Those rooms are not Ron Paul country. With these facts, it becomes apparent we need a couple of stunning 2nd place finishes. Maine is a good target, maybe Nevada, but who knows anything about Louisiana?
-JP
The first 5 million supporters of Dr. Paul are 'early adopters.' The next 10 million will require a modified approach.