Can we turn a red state blue in 2012 to prove a point?Submitted by Duane Vick on Sat, 09/08/2012 - 03:23
We're looking at several ways to try and prove to the RNC that they need us. There's the "quantify the vote" method that is trying to get everyone to align with Johnson so the RNC can see we vacated their candidate. I am proposing another project to tell the RNC that they need us and that maligning us cost them dearly. To make this effective, we need to take a state that has been clearly a red state (votes Republican every time) and turn it into a blue state. To make that happen, the electors in that state need to cast votes for Obama. If intentionally shifting a vote to Obama is not acceptable, then perhaps we can focus on claiming a Libertarian state. I will approach it from both ways.
First way is changing a red state to blue:
We have to consider a few things when picking which state we flip. First, it would have to be a state that Paul did poorly in, since that state stands to lose delegates if it becomes a blue state. It would have to be a state with a small population to have the greatest impact on the popular vote. Preferably a northern state where bad weather would be more likely to keep people home. Most importantly, a state that has a lot of Ron Paulers willing to engage such a strategy as we would have to dedicate resources towards getting out the vote for Obama in that state at a grassroots level. I am thinking South Dakota might be a good state to try and flip. They've been a red state for a long time and this would be a significant loss to the GOP and it would be clear that this was our doing.
The other way is to switch a Red State to Libertarian (Yellow?):
Obviously, one might think that Johnson would have the best chance of carrying New Mexico, however that is a blue state currently and is projected to go blue again in 2012. So I don't think the RNC expects to carry this state in 2012. Most states are winner-take-all in the electoral college so this strategy could be all for nothing if we don't get better than 50% of the popular vote in that state. That can be a huge undertaking. There are two states that aren't winner-take-all. Of those two, only one is a red state. That is Nebraska. Obama actually won 1 electoral vote there. So it can be possible to get at least 1 electoral vote for Johnson if we work on a particular Congressional District there.
So let's hear everyone's thoughts. Can we take an elector or even an entire state away from the RNC to prove that we are more than just a fringe element? Of the two proposals above, I'm personally conflicted as to which one is better. I really like the idea of taking a historically red state and flipping it blue as this would shock the media. Would we get credit for it though? On the other hand, capturing an elector for Johnson would be a sign that people are pissed off. Even if they don't credit Ron Paul's forces with effecting this outcome, a Libertarian electoral college vote would be something the media can't ignore. It's a statement of non-faith in the two party system. It opens the discussion about whether the two party system will still be viable in future elections. Which idea would have the greatest impact?