Logical Argument for voting for Gary Johnson vs. Ron Paul!Submitted by dsmith83 on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:37
The Libertarians are currently divided on how to vote in the Presidential race. Some believe we should vote for Gary Johnson, some believe we should vote for Ron Paul, and some believe we should just stay home. I believe we should vote for Gary Johnson and I will show you why.
I’m going to make a few assumptions. The first assumption is that the combined Libertarians could make up 25% of the total voters. The second assumption is that out of this 25%, 10% will vote for Gary Johnson and 15% will write in Ron Paul. The third and most important assumption is that write in votes will not be counted. Also for practical purposes, I will say that Obama and Romney will get an equal number of votes.
Now I will cover a few different scenarios:
1. Libertarians will vote their conscience and we will end up with the following results.
Now since I’m assuming write in votes won’t be counted, what will be reported on Election Day will look like this:
As you can see, the Libertarians still look like a fringe group with only 12% of the total votes.
2. Libertarians will all line up behind Ron Paul and write him in and we end up with the following results.
Again since I’m assuming write in votes won’t be counted, what will be reported on Election Day will look like this:
As you can see, the Libertarians appear to not even exist. This is the worst scenario in my mind.
3. Libertarians will all vote for Gary Johnson instead of voting for Ron Paul
This is what would be reported and now you can see that the Libertarians look like they are becoming a true force in the political game.
I’m sure many are going to have arguments against my argument for voting for Gary Johnson. Here are a few examples:
• Gary Johnson will not win and it is a wasted vote. People should vote for Obamney to keep Robama out of the office, because he is the lesser of two evils.
• I will not vote for Gary Johnson because only 9 out of 10 of his views match Ron Paul and my conscience will not allow me to do so.
• Only Ron Paul can save this country and if we all write him in then he can win.
• It doesn’t matter who we vote for, so I’m going to stay home.
I’ve hear these arguments everywhere on the net and I personally don’t believe any of them to be valid. People who are voting for the lesser of two evils are still voting for evil. This is just wrong. Now people who won’t vote for Johnson and instead write in Paul are voting their conscience and this is a good thing, but as you can see it does nothing to help the Libertarians look like a major political player. The Liberty movement momentum is slowed and we’ll have to work extra hard to get it going again and it could be too late by then. This argument applies to the people who just stay home as well.
Now let’s assume that everyone votes Johnson as listed in scenario 3. The Libertarian movement looks like a serious movement. R-37.5%, D-37.5%, L-25%. The Libertarians are now in the game.
Now let’s assume that this election cycle that 30% of the Republican and Democrats agree with many Libertarians stances, but won’t vote because they believe the Libertarians can’t win. This is what many polls across the country have suggested and I believe this to be true. But if the Libertarians no longer look like a fringe party and people see the movement growing, then just maybe half of these people will change their mind and vote Libertarian in 2016. Let’s assume that happens and only 15% of Republicans and Democrats decide to vote Libertarian. I rounded my numbers off, but according to my calculations it now gives us the following in 2016:
As you can see, we would then have a Libertarian in the White House. My conclusion is that if we all vote Gary Johnson we can get a Libertarian in the White House in 2016.