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Ron Paul Sportsbook Odds Now 4 to 1 !!!

Submitted by GoodSamaritan on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 18:57

Daily Paul Liberty Forum

Here is the link...

http://www.sportsbook.com/betting/Republican+Party-betting-o...

Ron Paul - Honorary Founding Father

The numbers don't make sense

Submitted by BobW on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 20:10. Permalink

We can convert the odds to probabilities -- e.g, 5 : 2 odds against means the candidate has a 2/7 probability of getting the nomination. When we do this the probabilities should add up to 1 (since only one candidate can actually get the nomination) or to less than 1 (because there's a chance some as yet unannounced candidate will get the nomination).

But the probabilities add up to 1.68. So there's something fishy about the way those odds are computed.

Actually, that surplus

Submitted by Plop on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 20:40. Permalink

Actually, that surplus represents the profit of the betting site! They skew all odds so that they will profit on average. In this case, that margin is huge.

However, if odds are 1:4 and people are playing on it, that indicates that those people think that the probability of a Ron Paul nomination is higher than 1 in 5, i.e. better than 20%. Otherwise they should not have accepted those odds (if they bet to maximize profit). And the betting site should adjust odds so that there is a balance between bets on both sides of the odds (so that they will make a risk free profit regardless of the outcome). If they have changed it to 1:4 it is because too many were betting for a Ron Paul nomination when it was at 1:8. They needed to make it more attractive to bet against it.

Very nice news, btw!

I bet $100 on Dr. Ron

Submitted by Sealand Atlantic on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 19:15. Permalink

6 months ago it was 200 to 1...one week ago I put $100 on Dr. Paul and I got 9 to 1 odds...so that means his odds got better this days

The gambling industry is a very realistic one...I

OK people, don't get angry ...I also donate some money to the campaign...

Whoo Hoo. I wonder how Intrade will react.

Submitted by Skyorbit on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 19:10. Permalink

Whoo Hoo. I wonder how Intrade will react.

Tracy

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Intrade offers just 5% or 6%

Submitted by Plop on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 19:30. Permalink

Intrade offers just 5% or 6% probabilty. Couldn't one make an arbitrage by betting on different sides of both markets at the same time?

by straddling the market you

Submitted by HonorGod on Sat, 09/29/2007 - 19:42. Permalink

by straddling the market you protect yourself but risk a large loss.. my choice is buying options.. to offset my main contract.. good security if it turns against you. Buy the RP contract.. then purchase Put Options just in case..

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