Why is "Official" Campaign Missing Golden Opportunity in Michigan?
Submitted by savannahcat on Mon, 01/14/2008 - 17:16A friend of mine recently emailed me and brought up some very good points that I thought should be shared with Grassroots.....so with her permission, I have copied her email below.
"So SC, Michigan and Nevada have the primaries coming.
So Dr. Paul concentrates on SC and Nevada.
The two key issues of Michigan voters are 1: the economy 2: the war.
The Democrats are missing in action in Michigan. So there is no true anti-war true fiscal responsibility representation in the state.
And the campaign chose to focus on SC and Nevada?????
SC: evangelical (and no matter what, Ron Paul will NOT play as well to this group as the Huck and the Mac do)
Nevada: fairly libertarian but very Mormon and heavily union (and no matter what, the Dems will get the union play)
SO AGAIN, I ASK: Why in the world was Michigan and the OPPORTUNITY there for more coverage, media and performance the LOWEST priority for the Ron Paul campaign of the three????
Who makes these decisions and why can they NOT think????????
Wow, if anybody associated with the conduct of the campaign understood strategy and strategic planning where might Ron Paul be in the polls????"
















Cart Before the Horse In The Real World
Ron Paul needs a much better finish in an early primary....not just delegates. (And fyi, even in winner take all there is a benefit to candidates who do not win...beyond delegates.)
Good showings (3rd or better) equals free press and momentum.
Pretty hard to get delegates at a later date when the opportunities for coverage and momentum are not viewed as having an "opportunity cost" associated with them.
The longer the draught, the greater the cost. The more "opportunity cost" the more "expensive the process."
cee cee
Well perhaps they are going
Well perhaps they are going by their own polling as to where to to put their time and effort.
People were complaining the didn't spend enough in NH then Ron Paul said their own polls showed they only had about 8 - 10 percent which was accurate. So perhaps their own polls show them doing much better in SC and NV then Michigan. They aren't just guessing where they will do best like the folks complaining here do. They are sampling and trying to gather as much information as they can before deciding to put a lot of time and money into a state.
As for the grassroots and "had the grassroots known" statements etc. The grassroots shouldn't be waiting around for the campaign to do something. If you think something should be getting done stop blaming the campaign for not doing it and put it together yourself. They only have so much money and time and they have to pick their battles. The grassroots need to pick up the slack where they can and quit complaining.
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Michigan is a winner take all state
There is no delegate prize for coming in second. I guess the they figured no matter how much time and money the campaign puts in Michigan, they're not going to beat Willard Mittens Romney in his home state where his dad was once governor.
Sure, it might look better to spend some money and come in 3rd. I know I'd feel better if they broke 10%, but they decided the money is better spent in the states where a second or third place finish actually yields some delegates.
You may argue that Nevada is also a winner take all state and it will be tough to beat Romney with a 12% Mormon population here. But in Nevada, nobody is paying much attention to the election. None of the candidates on the Rep side are coming. Most people I meet don't even know about the election (and if they're not Ron Paul people I sure as hell ain't gonna be the one to set them straight.) Also, Its on a Saturday morning at the start of a 3 day weekend. Turnout is expected to be low, between 20 and 40k.
So if the campaign can get a hold of 11000 supporters, we can get 25-50% of the vote here. Its still a long shot, But Nevada is worth the risk. Michigan isn't. The campaign is far from perfect, but not nearly as stupid as many here think.
“Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.” William Pitt
Excellent Points
That makes me feel much better. Having recently moved to Michigan, I too was upset to hear how little focus was given to my new state. However, you have explained the situation very well, and in light of this evidence, I am forced to agree with you. Ron Paul needs to start picking up actual delegates if he wants to have a chance of winning this nomination, and Michigan probably won't get him there.
Pretty sure the haven't really concentrated on MI because...
we have only 1/2 of the usual number of delegates that we normally send to the GOP convention.
MI is also the state where Mitt Romney was born, McCain won the GOP primary against Bush in 2000 and is a state that is traditionally Dem because of the huge union influence here.
I live in MI and was originally upset about the (perceived) lack of spending in MI by HQ but then I started thinking about it and it seems that the money is probably better spent in SC, NV, FL and the Super Tuesday primaries.
I wish everyone wasn't getting so split and demoralized by these 2 or 3 super early primaries, they constitute a miniscule amount of delegates compared to how many are needed to get the nomination. Hopefully there is a huge Super Tuesday ad blitz in the works from HQ.
Good Point
Since all the news has been about the Dems being off the ballot I completely forgot about the GOP being stripped of delegates. Thanks for that :-)
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Well you have told us what you think of them so let me tell you
On January 11th, 2008 James H. Wood says:
Well you told us what you think of them, so let me tell you what I think of you!
You are a stone thrower, a complainer, a whiner, a man who see's so clearly the faults around you, but are blind to your own short comings!
You are the man who says, why did you do it that way, after it is finished, oh, I would not have done that!
The man who says, I just don't understand why you would do that, yet not once would you ever on your own do anything but complain about the others who are in the trenches!
Get off your backside and run for something instead of running your mouth!
You run your gator like you are the big Pooh bah, yet you sit by and do nothing to stop this onslaught on your personal freedoms!
You get your ass and stand in the mirror and look at what a fool you have grown up to be, and then say what can I do to change this World that I am living in for my children and wife! What can you do? We know you can run your mouth and point out how others could do it so much better.
When I say others, I am referring to just you because regardless of what someone else did, you would always do it better!
Stand there in front of that mirror and look at one pathetic human being who has grown up and made little contribution to your Country!
You are because you say you are, but then who are you? That, is the question you should be asking yourself?
What is your point?
Hey, WE have donated hard-earned money to the national campaign, and damn-well deserve to see something positive done with it! If they are royally flubbing Ron Paul's campaign (and they are), I think we deserve some statement from them, or an accounting of just what is being done with our money, aside from running the same one lame ad over and over until it is mocked by the general public (a la New Hampshire).
It's one thing to incessantly whine --- it's another (and justified) thing to demand competence and responsibility from those entrusted, and paid, to act on our behalf.
How dare you??
How dare you accuse those of us who have worked our ASSES off for Ron Paul of being "pathetic human beings" who "run our mouths" because we ask a legitimate question about HQ? I have busted my butt for MONTHS here in Michigan on a grassroots level. Contrary to what is stated in your post, I hardly think that to ask a question is to complain or whine! Defend your post! I can certainly defend mine!
that is your response to those field workers
who have been on the front lines in these primary states and how have been exasperated by a lackluster effort from a HQ filled with millions of dollars? You should be ashamed.
You are correct.
The Democratic governor was just on CNN and says Michigan is Mad as Hell, about democrats pulling their names off the ballots. If they are mad at democrats, what would they think of candidates that ignore their state altogether?
She was complaining about her state losing thousands of jobs and NAFTA and CAFTA not doing what it said it was going to do. Of course, she thinks Clinton is the answer whose husband signed the NAFTA agreement... what short memories people have. It's too bad Ron Paul doesn't do more to refresh those memories.
With Ron Paul standing very strongly against these agreements, he should have spent some time in Michigan... he may have indeed missed a golden opportunity.
He should have gone to Michigan and brought the NAACP Austin leader with him.
I just don't understand what his campaign is thinking or doing.
Wow, you should send this in to the campaign....
Running 10 terms for congress I am sure Dr. Paul has no idea what he is doing....
Dam politicians, not rivers!
Always remember:
"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." ~ Samuel Adams
Stay IRATE, remain TIRELESS, and set those BRUSH FIRES everywhere you go and in all you do!
Interesting post
I found myself thinking the same thing today. Michigan is an open primary with the Democrats basically sitting out, and Ron Paul has polled respectably there. There should be a huge push to get the anti-war vote out for Paul.
Yet I see no campaign events in Michigan whatsoever on the official campaign website's calendar, and some of you in this thread are indicating that Paul's paid media presence in Michigan is anemic.
I'm not trying to second guess the campaign's strategy, because I don't know what their strategy is. But honestly I don't see any strategy given the information I have stumbled across.
To have a bigger impact in this race, Paul needs to "break out" somewhere. He needs a solid third place showing in one of the next few races. He can't afford to pull a Giuliani and "sit out" unless it's a state where his prospects are terrible. There is no firewall. To spark future success he needs to make a move somewhere, and soon, or be written off as "not viable."
I'm OK with the campaign playing in South Carolina and Nevada. That's fine. But why you would play in South Carolina and not Michigan is beyond me. The "Defender of Freedom" ad should be in heavy rotation in Detroit. While the campaign can't openly court the votes of Democrats in the open primary, an ad touting Paul's foreign policy of "peace and freedom" would be highly appropriate.
But it's too late.
Had we known the campaign was going to punt on Michigan (or just leave it to the grassroots), perhaps supporters could have brainstormed and acted accordingly. Maybe we'd be running the Jeremiah Black ads, which are fantastic.
I'm trying to stay upbeat. I'm trying to keep the faith. And I know the campaign has no obligation to clue volunteers like me into their strategy just to keep our minds at ease, but I wish I could see the logic in their decisions.
Protections for anonymous speech are vital to democratic discourse. Allowing dissenters to shield their identities frees them to express critical, minority views...Anonymity is a shield from the tyranny of the majority. - SCotUS, 1995
Well said!
I second everything in your post. Particularly your last paragraph :-)
Call and send this page to HQ
-----------------DO YOU REALLY WANT RON TO WIN------------------
Ron needs more than just money. Send this strategy to mail@ronpaul2008.com and also to press@ronpaul2008.com if these ideas make sense to you
www.dailypaul.com/node/14009
-----------------DO YOU REALLY WANT RON TO WIN------------------
Ron needs more than just money. Send this strategy to mail@ronpaul2008.com and also to press@ronpaul2008.com if these ideas make sense to you
www.dailypaul.com/node/14009
Some folks on this forum
Some folks on this forum remind me of Frank Pentangeli (Frankie Five Angels) from The Godfather Part II.
Frankie just could not understand Michael Corleone's master plan for dealing with Hyman Roth. Frankie didn't trust the man in charge; he made an ass of himself and in the end, he ended up morte.
Ron Paul Explorer: The All Paul Search Engine
Ron Paul Explorer: The All Paul Search Engine
wow, I forgot about the secret plan.
Make boring political ads, using outdated technology, fail to organize and direct the grassroots energy, lay low, make sure you just get 4th or 5th place through super Tuesday.....THEN sneak up on them at the convention. Man, I feel better now.
Do you have an opinion?
As to why the campaign passed over Michigan? That's all I, for one, have been wondering about. Call me what you will.
Blind Trust in Bad
Blind Trust in Bad Leadership is NOT Patriotism!
Blind trust in bad campaign leadership is not getting the job done, and is hurting Ron Paul's campaign, his message, and the movement.
I don't see a campaign only grassroots
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."
-- Mahatma Gandhi
A Republic, If You Can Keep It
I think at this point
we are all aware that the people running the campaign are so over their heads, they have, in fact, drowned.
How can a presidential primary campaign with more money than all the other candidates be so invisible? Where did our 20 million go...and they want another money bomb? To do what with?
They've done more to dampen momentum and lose this moment in history than we could have even fantasized. That email today from HQ to get out and canvass and to donate more money! Not even an email address easily accessed to respond to them. I just used the sign up form again as it has a comments box.
We are all disappointed, while the wars go on, our economy breaks apart, our personal liberties are chiselled away and we end up with neo-con president, no matter who is chosen.
I don't see any strategy at all
At least Rudy has a crazy strategy.........I've only seen 1 Kent Snyder interview this whole campaign season. Unbelievable. Ron Paul is not getting any help from his staff. They don't come to his aide when they throw crap on him, and they don't stand up to the biased media. I would like to think they could recruit some 3rd party spokepersons to endorse Ron. I'm sure they're are some influential celebrities that would support Ron Paul...........You could even make a film clip of his interviewers like Beck, Jim Cramer, etc. who all eventually say great things..........but the campaign isn't doing anything with these golden nuggets. Gasp.
alan laney
Why is Kent Snyder in charge of the campaign?
Is it just a matter of missplaced loyalty on the part of Dr. Paul? Did this guy run his congressional campaign? I take it he did. Since when does some chump who runs a congressional campaign get promoted to running a national presidental run...are you kidding me?
I live in Michigan ...
... and have been wondering the same thing. I used to be the staunchest defender of HQ, but now that I have seen firsthand what they have been doing here (or NOT doing), I can't.
Romney and McCain have been running ads and campaigning here non-stop. I have not seen one RP ad air on TV (I have heard of a few radio spots and have first-hand knowledge of some direct mail). HQ was not on the ball in getting materials for the meetup groups. One example - when the delivery of yard signs finally DID come in, they came without stands. The Flint, MI office is not on page with the Detroit office. I know of people in the meetup that have gone to Flint for materials/assistance and they are either told they have to go to Detroit - or, they have been unable to answer the questions from the meetups.
The majority of the Dems are NOT on the MI ballot (Edwards and Obama are not - Clinton is). It would seem to me that this is a golden opportunity wasted for the RP campaign. I absolutely LOVE Ron Paul and have done my personal best to get out the vote for him (and will support him to the end!!!), but I guess I would just like some information as to why they chose to totally bypass MI in favor of other contests. I'm no campaign expert, but it just doesn't make sense to me, I guess. I have to admit I'm a little disappointed.
Sounds like somebody needs
Sounds like somebody needs to stop tappin on the keyboard, stop waitin' around for something to happen and get out and make it happen.
"But, indeed, no private person has a right to complain, by suit in court, on the ground of a breach of the Constitution. The Constitution it is true, is a compact, but he is not a party to it."
Accusing people who are
Accusing people who are posting on here of not doing anything to support RP is getting tiresome, IMO. Just because somebody takes a few minutes out of their day to read some posts on Daily Paul and *gasp* possibly respond to them doesn't necessarily mean they are sitting on the couch all day doing nothing on behalf of Ron Paul. Give me a break. BTW, do I need to justify this post by telling you what I've done to campaign? If so, I'd be more than happy to.
Is there a campaign HQ?
You could fool me. I'm in N.W. Indiana....Mich. and Illinois are close. I have not seen one campaign ad.
www.ronpaul2008.com
There is life at the end of the tunnel my friends!
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Strategy
The official campaign's strategy is to have no campaign strategy.
they have one, but it was
so secret, even they forgot where they put it.