15 votes

October 9th: Did the bear market start yesterday?

By Mark Hulbert | MarketWatch

Will the bull market come to an end on Oct. 9? Don’t laugh. It turns out that two of the most prominent market turning points of the last decade occurred on this very date.

The first was the beginning of the 2002-07 bull market, which occurred Oct. 9, 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on that date hit an intraday low of 7,282.39, and the S&P 500 index sank to 775.80 — more or less half the levels these indexes would rise to in five years’ time.

The second of those major turning points came as that 2002-2007 bull market was coming to an end. Believe it or not, its exact end was on — you guessed it — Oct. 9, 2007. In the ensuing bear market, the Dow and the S&P 500 would each lose more than half their values.

You might think that there are almost impossibly low odds that two trend changes this momentous would occur on the very same day of the year.

But you’d be wrong. In fact, this is a great illustration of how our gut instincts are poor guides to statistical truths.

Continue reading at MarketWatch

Trending on the Web

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

NO! The S&P 500 rallys to

NO! The S&P 500 rallys to the 1600 area, most likely the high will be between Thanksgiving and Valentines day. Commodities will rally the most. After this top is put in, we begin a bear market taking us BELOW the lows of March 2009 over the next 2 years or so! From this bottom we begin a crazy inflationary bull market taking everything to crazy highs, but mainly commodities. This will likely end with a blow off bubble top for gold and silver around 2017-2019.

No Bulls in charts i use. Hmmm....


Peter Schiff is right again.

Free includes debt-free!

Going to get interesting


"We can see with our eyes, hear with our ears and feel with our touch, but we understand with our hearts."

Please. Never quote

Please. Never quote MarketWatch. Their sole mission is to troll for clicks, forget about accuracy or common sense. They are literally as bad as Business Insider.

Michael Nystrom's picture

Oh come on Velveeta

Marketwatch is a great site. Them and Bigcharts are my first stop for financial news, along with the WSJ.

Anyway, regardless of what you think of the site, take heed of the article. Mark Hulbert is pretty good. Plus, have you checked the market lately? Especially the Nasdaq. Looks like the top might be in:


QE3 ain't gonna work.

He's the man.

Where is all this freshly

Where is all this freshly counterfeited fed cash going to find a home?

Time to start shorting? Would

Time to start shorting?

Would be fitting to make money on financial institutions losing value!


Michael Nystrom's picture

If you're going to short, just keep a tight stop

Predicting the actual top is a pretty low probability event, so expect to get whipsawed.

In response to the question, 'how do you prevent getting whipsawed?" One great trader replied, "Don't trade."

The moves down are much quicker than the moves up. There is the potential to make some money here, but it is not a slam dunk. It never is. Keep a close eye on, and keep the shorts on a tight leash, don't over trade, and don't overcommit!

Plus you never know when the Government is going to swoop into the market, through word or deed, and cause a massive short term rally that is only exacerbated by short covering. And before you know it, we've got a 5% up day in the midst of a bear market.

He's the man.

Since there's no theoretical

Since there's no theoretical limit to upside potential, I've always been wary of shorting. A lot of my trading is done by buying the underlying stock along with protective puts. Maybe I'll just start buying puts without buying the underlying. At least my risk is known beforehand.