October 9th: Did the bear market start yesterday?Submitted by Peace Gold Love on Wed, 10/10/2012 - 13:09
By Mark Hulbert | MarketWatch
Will the bull market come to an end on Oct. 9? Don’t laugh. It turns out that two of the most prominent market turning points of the last decade occurred on this very date.
The first was the beginning of the 2002-07 bull market, which occurred Oct. 9, 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on that date hit an intraday low of 7,282.39, and the S&P 500 index sank to 775.80 — more or less half the levels these indexes would rise to in five years’ time.
The second of those major turning points came as that 2002-2007 bull market was coming to an end. Believe it or not, its exact end was on — you guessed it — Oct. 9, 2007. In the ensuing bear market, the Dow and the S&P 500 would each lose more than half their values.
You might think that there are almost impossibly low odds that two trend changes this momentous would occur on the very same day of the year.
But you’d be wrong. In fact, this is a great illustration of how our gut instincts are poor guides to statistical truths.
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