Ron Paul Might Have a Huge Win in Nevada
Have you wondered why Ron Paul is spending so much time in Nevada instead of Michigan or South Carolina? It's because he has a chance to win Nevada with some big numbers.
I've been tracking Ron Paul Meetup members in New Hampshire and Iowa and seeing how it translates into total votes. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Ron Paul had about 1200 Meetup members and got around 12,000 votes in Iowa and 18,000 votes in New Hamshire. Right now there are a little over 1200 Meetup members in Nevada. This might suggest that Ron Paul will end up with a similar number of total votes as he received in Iowa and NH, 12,000 to 18,000.
Now why is that so exciting? According to the Nevada Sun, the expected turnout for the Republicans in Nevada is between 30,000-40,000. That would translate anywhere from 30%-60% of the vote.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan/14/most-republicans...
Nevada has 34 delegates up for grabs vs. 24 for South Carolina. Nevada delegates are non-binding but I really don't think that an elected Ron Paul delegate is going to vote for anyone else.
Michigan has around 3000 Meetup members which might translate into 40,000 votes. Unfortunately the Republican primary in 2000 had 1,276,770 votes cast. Therefore Ron Paul would end up with a little more than 3% of the total vote. It's about the same result for South Carolina.
I'm hoping that Nevada will be the state that will give Ron Paul his first win. It should be interesting to see how Meetup numbers work as a prediction device.
UPDATE: Ron Paul received 54,434 votes yesterday in Michigan for 6.27% of the vote. Therefore he got 18.5 votes/meetup member. His votes/meetup member in Iowa and NH were 11.4 and 14.5 respectively. That's an average of 15 votes/meetup member for the first three states. That would mean about 18,000 votes in Nevada. With a turnout of 50,000, that would mean 36%. Time will tell.





















Nevadas main obstacles
I originally posted this in another thread, but will repost here
I live in Reno Nevada. Here's my thoughts on the biggest challenges facing Dr Paul here:
1) Nevadans are so displeased with the Bush administration that most won't even look at a Republican candidate, much less look at him twice.
2) The "Official" meetup group leaders are driving people away with unbelievable negativity. There's a "My way or the highway" attitude amongst the meetup coordinators that is devastating to the cause.
3) We have a large minority population that is not being targeted as they should be. I mean a LARGE minority population, most of whom have never voted and must be motivated toward attending the caucus. Several of us pledged on ronpaulmarch.com to march on MLK day downtown, and we have been subject to outright hostility from the "Official" meetup coordinators (See #2 above). My wife actually received a letter from Juanita Cox (One of the main meetup coordinators) in which she said "If the BLACK LEADERS allow this, then you have my blessing and I will
help you. If you don't, then I WILL FIGHT YOU EVERY STEP OF THE WAY" (Direct copy/paste). That is flat out racist. Dr King spoke of equality, not Black Power.
4) Contradictory information regarding caucuses. We are receiving conflicting info on how long we must be registered as republicans before we may vote in the caucus. Some say Dec 19th was the deadline, others say there is no deadline, and still others say 2 days prior. Regardless of which is the case the simple fact is that getting straightforward answers is absolutely necessary to motivate the apathetic to become involved beyond putting a sign on their lawn. Also we are getting much conflicting info on our precincts. We have been informed of 2 precinct changes in the past 2 weeks, switching our caucus location.
If we fail to resolve these issues then Nevada has no hope of being the great stand we all expected New Hampshire to be.
Get real. Strippers and
Get real. Strippers and prostituted don't vote. Sheeple do.
Nevada
Please do not have unrealistic expectations. Lots of retirees and other major demographic groups who have not performed for RP to date. Nevada is a tough, tough state with a very Libertarian streak and many Libertarians. Heavy unions will go DEM. And Romney will do very well in urban and rural areas. Ron Paul may have spent time in Nevada...but he spent it preaching to the choir and not out among the general population.
cee cee
SECRET WEAPON IN NV
Don't forget. According to FAUX news the only supporters Dr. Paul has are strippers and prostitutes. I think we will do quite well in Nevada thanks to the Bunny Ranch.
“Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.” Barry Goldwater
Brace yourselves. Romney is
Brace yourselves. Romney is going to win Nevada. This place is crawling with them, and they do as they are told.
Crawling with campaign staff or voters?
“Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.” Barry Goldwater
Mormans
Expect a big turnout for Romney.
Nevada
I'm in the UK, I've just found a bookmaker where I could get £6 at 100 - 1 for Ron to win Nevada. I think that could be a bargain, after what I read on the other thread about the ratio of donors to voters. If he wins, I will send half to a worthy Paulite cause :)
Excellant
I'm bumping this so I can find it easily Saturday.
40K turnout??
http://secretaryofstate.biz/elections/results/2004Primary/El...
In 2004 122K showed up to vote in the Republican Senate primary (there was no presidential primary ever on the websites history, I don't know why)
And almost a million voted in the 2004 General election in Nevada.
Michigan
I think you're right on the good Doctor surprising them here. The media will spin it as Dem votes goint to the Rep dark horse.. but that's OK.. it may still generate some greatly needed airtime for Ron.
~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~
He's going to shock alot of people in Michigan
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent" Thomas Jefferson
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent" Thomas Jefferson
He's going to shock alot of people in Michigan
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent" Thomas Jefferson
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent" Thomas Jefferson
Overlap
I'm in the Los Angeles area and had to join 3 Meet-ups just to cover the groups within walking distance.
I imagine in Nevada, that there may be less of this since there are open spaces between population centers. It will be interesting to see.
Thanks for not posting this sooner and stimulating the competition.
IMissLiberty
IMissLiberty
Aaron Russo did very well in Nevada...
Aarron Russo did very well in Nevada in 1998 when he ran in the Republican primary for governor. He got 2nd place overall with about 28% of the vote. If all the people who voted for Russo will vote for Ron Paul then we've got a real fight on our hands here...
Agreed!
I hope Aaron helps from heaven....
Aaron Russo, a true American patriot.
I'll second that!
I think it's safe to assume that anyone who supported Russo has seen America: Freedom to Fascism (free on google videos). With that being said, I would hope that everyone remember Ron Paul was the only congressman brave enough to step up and tell the truth in that documentary.
NOTE: I am not advocating violence in any way. The content of the post is for intellectual, theoretical, and philosophical discussion. FEDS, please don't come to my house.
I'll raise your second!
What a great man..RIP
which states have what?
machine counts
hand counts
combination
delegates/caucus
???
anyone have a list
Ok, here's Dr. Paul's log in NV
I just checked in the news/announcements of his whereabouts. Guys, he's very busy:
LAS VEGAS - Presidential candidate Ron Paul will be visiting Nevada beginning today, January 13th. His trip through the Silver State will begin in Pahrump. Dr. Paul will then head north to Reno where, on Monday the 14th, he will meet with the media and hold a rally in Carson City. Dr. Paul's visit will end in Las Vegas on Tuesday the 15th.
Dr. Paul will visit with Nye County Republicans at the Bob Ruud Community Center in Pahrump, Nevada. The Community Center is located at 150 North Highway 160. The event will begin at 7 pm and end at 8:30 pm.
Dr. Paul will then head north to Reno for media events on the morning of Monday, January 14th. He will meet with supporters and undecided voters at a local restaurant. Then he will head south to Carson City to hold a rally at Comma Coffee at 312 South Carson Street. The media and the general public are invited to attend.
The next stop for the Texas Congressman will be in Las Vegas on Tuesday the 15th. He will meet with various media outlets in the morning. At 12:30 pm, Dr. Paul will attend the Third Tuesday Coalition Luncheon hosted by the Nevada Policy Research Institute, which will be attended by Clark County Republicans.
Later in the afternoon, Dr. Paul will meet with Nevada voters concerned about border security as well as some citizens' group leaders concerned about border security from Nevada and other western states at the Memphis Championship Barbecue in Las Vegas.
"He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it." Confucius
"He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it." Confucius
There is a reason
There is a reason they are keeping Nevada news on the republican side under wraps. I never hear a word about the polling in Nevada. All we hear is the democrats. the democrats the democrats. No word on who Nevada is in favor of on the republican side. Hope it is true. A big win there. Even though they will say no one else campaigned there. We will seeeeeeee!!!
www.ronpaul2008.com
There is VICTORY at the end of the tunnel my friends!
***********Ron Paul for POTUS 2012***********
*************Obama Is A Communist!************
**********Repeal the 17th Amendment**********
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HQ drops the ball again?
First of all i need to correct you about your comment that "Ron Paul is spending so much time in Nevada". Thats just not even close to being true. He did not show up for the paulapalooza event and now he was apparently in reno yesterday and today in vegas, thats it before the caucus?
The other thing is that yes there are lots of meetup members here and i think there were 702 for paulopalooza but yet only a few hundred showed up. SO i highly doubt that the turnout will be anywhere as high as you predict.
Myself and other supporters have been trying to find out his schedule while he is here and if we could plan a huge rally. I just heard from the guy who organized the paulopalooza event and he says he had contacted HQ about planning a rally here a few days ago and HQ said they would get back to him and of course never did as of the morning of the event! Now its pretty much last minute notice to expect that we can plan any kind of significant rally with less than 8 hours notice! I have spoken to many other supporters that are becoming very fed up with HQ dropping the ball time and time again in every state apparently. What is happening with HQ????
Also please note: What is the point of him even coming here if his schedule is so secretive? How can we be expected to support him? How can any potential likely voters even get access to him? His schedule says business luncheon and media opportunities. Luncheon with who?? Media opportunities? Well hopefully HQ doesn't wait until he arrived in Vegas before trying to arrange for the media to be there!!
It's a frustrating mess
No support for the Paulapalooza, we're simply supposed to believe they're going to win? Too many of you must have watched theat law of attraction video and have your rose coloured glasses on.
If they don't care, why should I.
What about Thanksgiving Week?
Ron Paul was in Nevada all over the place Thanksgiving week. He was in Las Vegas and then Reno with several stops in different places. He built up a following then. Also, people all over the place were getting calls and ads in their mailbox from Ron Paul. My girlfriend who lives in Minden was very impressed with the campaign material and went to Reno with me as I was passing through. She would not have if the campaign had not sent out the material then.
It takes a relationship to build a strong following. He has been building that relationship so don't say he has not been in Nevada.
Healthnuttie for Ron Paul
Healthnut4freedom
The lip of truth shall be established forever: but a lying tongue is but for a moment...Lying lips are abomination to the LORD: but they that deal truly are His delight. Prov 12:19,22
Go Nevada!
Ron Paul knows what he is doing! Please help clean up this site for a more positive focus! Remember new members and guests get an impression here and the energy needs to be focused positive!
Give to the official campaign then give whatever help you can to your local meetups. Nevada could be very big! Also go to the Ron Paul forums Nevada for the latest news there and see what you can do to help there to help push this momentum big!
"I think we are living in a world of lies: lies that don't even know they are lies, because they are the children and grandchildren of lies." ~ Chris Floyd
He Looks Good In Virginia
"He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it." Confucius
"He who exercises government by means of his virtue may be compared to the north polar star, which keeps its place and all the stars turn towards it." Confucius
Great news a lot of people have recieved Ron's message,,,
Just do not expect to much its their game their ball their feild their judges. Like Ron says have FUN
If voting could really change things,
it would be illegal. Here is hoping for change!
great post!
I may be a vegetarian, but I'll defend to the death my right to eat pork!
I may be a vegetarian, but I'll defend to the death my right to eat meat!
i laugh every time i see your signature
i'm a veg, too...!
lol. I am too, I like it.
lol. I am too, I like it.
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