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Obama's Chance Of ReElection Plunging on Intrade - Now only 58%

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The hell is Intrade? A

The hell is Intrade? A facebook for stock trading?

Southern Agrarian

It's an open market for real life events

Each event either occurs or doesn't occur. If it occurs, it's worth $10. If not, you lose all your money. 100% = $10. So if you see a percent at 58.6% it would cost you $5.86 to "buy a share" if you think it will occur.

Intrade lets you place bets on just about anything

The idea behind it is that since peoples money is at risk, they'll be very careful about where they place their bets. In aggregate, it behaves like a market, and attempts to harness the wisdom of crowds for predictive benefit.

So with Romney at 42% chance of winning, you can "buy" a share of Romney for .42. When he wins, you collect $1. If he loses, you lose that .42. Times however many 'shares' you bought.

As far as predicting things, it is pretty accurate.

Here is a bet:

USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750356

The market assigns this only an 11% chance. At this time. (But if something big were to happen, that could shoot up dramatically - just like a real market).

The Diamond Dog is a real cool cat. | Reporting on the world from an altitude of 420.

p.s. - Senate races

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/key-races/senate/

The Diamond Dog is a real cool cat. | Reporting on the world from an altitude of 420.

That first debate fiasco hurt

That first debate fiasco hurt him badly. Too close to call.

I must be willing to give up what I am in order to become what I will be. Albert Einstein

As fixed as the stock market, and by the same people.

As reported in Reuters yesterday, Obama will win in an electoral landslide, barring massive voter fraud.

I wouldn't count out voter fraud

You saw what the Romney folks did during the RNC.

What makes you think they won't do it again?

The Diamond Dog is a real cool cat. | Reporting on the world from an altitude of 420.

LOL... www.unskewedpolls.com

LOL...

www.unskewedpolls.com

“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy.”
― Ron Paul