Exit poll says Ron Paul should be at 6% in SC.
Submitted by dgingerich on Sat, 01/19/2008 - 21:10
Exit polls are supposed to be very accurate, so how is it that RP is only pulling 3.7% when the exit poll says he should get 6%? The poll is pretty accurate for all of the other candidates except for Rudy, who is also a full 1% less than the exit polls. Even with that, Ron Paul is 2.3% lower. Something is strange here.......again.
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Take off the tin foil hats
Think about this for one minute and stop the mindless paranoia that always comes up when results aren't what was hoped for.
1) Any statistical analysis has a "margin of error." I can say for sure that at a minimum it was + or - 2%, probably more like 4%. This basically means there's a 95% chance that his numbers would be between 2% and 10%.
2) What incentive would "they" have to cheat to take us down from 6%. Quite honestly, that number stinks no matter what. Why risk it to take it down to 4%????
3) The same people whining about this are the same people who claim the polls aren't real either. Well, which one is it this time?
That being said, they are adding respondents as the night goes on and that's changing the percentages. That is irresponsible and they shouldn't post until all are in. However, I'm sure all of you would still be claiming it's rigged no matter what happens if RP isn't in the top 3 in any vote.
Surprise, surprise! The
Surprise, surprise! The exit poll percentages just magically changed to match the final results. This has happened in almost every state. Wake up! How do exit polls suddenly change by several percent? The number of respondents only changed by a few and yet Ron Paul went from 8% among males to 5% and 4% among females to 2%. How convenient! BTW, the reason to lower him from 6% to about 4% would be to make him match the predictions of the "scientific" polls which had him at an average of 4.4%.
They change when the sample
They change when the sample goes up by 30%! Not a few, 30%! When your #s are as bad as ours were in SC, there can be a lot of volatility since a couple of points makes a big difference, while if McCain's are a couple off either way it looks close.
If you feel this is all a conspiracy, tell me why they'd release the early numbers in the first place. I guess that kind of shoots a hole in that one. I have already said it was irresponsible to release partial numbers, but beyond that there is nothing gained either way.
Please stop posting moronic comments like this. There may be people honestly looking at Dr. Paul and the last thing we need as them thinking we're all nuts like you.
OMG Thank you for posting
I now feel like I am not alone when people talk about the voting conspiracy against Paul.
It went up less than 300
It went up less than 300 respondents which is less than a 22% change, by the way. The numbers don't add up. 4% of 1655 is 66 people, but 6% of 1368, which was the number before is 82 people. In other words, out of the last 300 people who responded, Ron Paul got NEGATIVE 16 votes. I don't know what kind of math you learned, but that's NOT POSSIBLE!
When I first saw it was in
When I first saw it was in the 1100s. Secondly, especially at #s that low the rounding can be a huge factor.
4+8 might really be 3.5+7.5 = 5.5 avg instead of 6, which in the 1100s is around 60. If it's even 4.2% after the additions you're looking at 69 at the later numbers, which could be true if he got 1% of the other 500 votes. If the votes not tallied were all from one area or areas with similar demographics, that could be possible.
Again, they shouldn't be adjusting as new #s come in and just wait to release. It's irresponsible but they gain nothing for it. And the connection to rigging elections to justify polls is absurd. That really didn't work for Obama did it? He had NH wrapped up.
Even IF they did round, AND
Even IF they did round, AND your numbers are correct (which I don't believe they are), there is only 1 county where Ron Paul received only 1% of the vote. So, unless the last 500 respondents ALL came from that 1 county, there is statistically NO WAY he only got 1% of the last 500 votes. Keep living in the dream world, it's a lot more pleasant than the real world the rest of us are living in.
I'm confused
Why are almost half the counties not reporting, yet they claim 90% reporting. Are there only certain counties that can participate in the fraud scheme?
Don't worry
I'm sure they'll "adjust" the exit poll shortly to conform to the reported results just like they did in Nevada.
82% reporting
But yet there are 20+ counties that have not reported anything?
BS!!!!
They need to nullify the results of this Primary being they don't have the legally required paper trail to support the results. How could anything in this state be verified in any court without one single shred of physical evidence?
FRAUD?
RSK You didn't think after his relative success in NV they were gonna let Dr. Paul look competitive twice in one night? Dysfunctional Diebold machines, that's all they're using in SC. The MSM would probably question the discrepancy between "real time" and the exit polls if the candidate were anyone other than Ron Paul. THE FAUX I MEAN FIX IS IN!
Yeap
I would have more believable to let them vote from home over the internet, at least there would be a traceable element.