The US government lies to us AGAIN about North Korea strategic capabilities.Submitted by Bob-45 on Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:25
The following essay is by Larry Niksch, a Specialist in Asian Affairs of the Congressional Research Service - Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division of the Library of Congress. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent views of the Congressional Research Service. This essay was originally distributed as PacNet #5 by Pacific Forum CSIS.
The author argues that the Clinton administration's efforts at engagement with the DPRK have failed to curb the DPRK's missile development. He maintains that the DPRK will likely have Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) capable of reaching parts of the US before the US will be able to build a National Missile Defense to protect against them. He argues that the DPRK will likely use these missiles as a "diplomatic trump card" to make up for the deterioration of its conventional armed forces and to push the US to withdraw its troops from the ROK. He calls on the US to restructure its deterrence policy to make clear to the DPRK that it would face massive retaliation if it attempted to attack the US.
II. Essay by Larry Niksch
"North Korea's Coming ICBM" by Larry Niksch
North Korea's test of a three stage "Taepodong" missile on August 31, 1998, halted the Clinton Administration's escalating claims in 1998 of success in its "engagement" policy towards North Korea. Those claims were already in doubt due to the revelations two weeks earlier of US intelligence findings that North Korea was constructing underground an apparent nuclear installation. A more profound development came later in the form of reported US intelligence assessments regarding the missile test. These findings are that: 1) the third stage of the missile, claimed as a satellite by North Korea, traveled over 3,000 miles and landed in waters near Alaska; 2) North Korea will have a missile capable of striking Alaska and Hawaii by 2002, for practical purposes an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM); 3) North Korea is constructing underground sites to deploy these missiles (which suggests deployment as early as 2000); 4) North Korea will have a longer-range ICBM capable of striking the US west coast and other parts of the continental United States within five years.