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MUST SEE: Projected Ron Paul Primary Results by State

Want to get an indication of how things might unfold?

This will give you some optimism but keep in mind that these are unscientific projections and that we can IMPROVE these numbers with the Precinct Leader program. Time is running out to join: voters.ronpaul2008.com.

See the numbers here:
http://www.paulunteer.com/projects/projected-ron-paul-primary-results-by-state/



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davidinliberty's picture

There seems to be some major differences, please explain

According to Red Telegram, which the site references, here are the numbers:

State Projection Actual Error

Alaska 27.29%

District of Columbia 16.76%

Utah 16.01%

Nevada 13.65% 13.73% 0.08%

Arizona 12.85%

Colorado 12.75%

Iowa 11.47% 11.29% -0.18%

North Dakota 10.95%

Texas 10.77%

Idaho 10.71%

Oregon 10.67%

New Mexico 10.65%

Tennessee 10.50%

New Hampshire 10.23% 7.84% -2.39%

Florida 9.09%

Washington 8.87%

New Jersey 8.66%

Oklahoma 8.37%

Arkansas 8.08%

North Carolina 7.95%

Delaware 7.49%

Montana 7.44%

Kentucky 7.25%

Pennsylvania 6.92%

California 6.83%

Connecticut 6.69%

Maryland 6.55%

Illinois 6.05%

Louisiana 6.00%

Virginia 5.71%

Minnesota 5.31%

Missouri 5.09%

Kansas 4.89%

Georgia 4.85%

Indiana 4.46%

Michigan 4.25% 6.41% 2.16%

Massachusetts 4.15%

Alabama 4.08%

Wyoming 3.98%

Wisconsin 3.61%

Nebraska 3.53%

South Carolina 3.43% 3.66% 0.23%

New York 3.24%

Mississippi 2.89%

West Virginia 2.78%

Ohio 2.75%

Maine 2.69%

Hawaii 1.88%

Vermont 1.75%

South Dakota 1.61%

Rhode Island 1.49%

So where did this new projection come from with NJ at 46%?

-dave

"She's lower than the lowest whore outside the Holland Tunnel at 3am in fishnet stockings." - Michael Savage in reference to Dianne Sawyer

David Burns
Simi Valley, CA

They could have edited their

They could have edited their article...

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I tend to

I tend to agree....................

Tim
Active/Reserves/Retired
Join the
Military for Ron Paul
meet-up Group
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/1040/

It's pretty hard to argue

It's pretty hard to argue with that kind of accuracy so far.

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This Is Interesting To Me, So...

"Bump", so others can see this.

Ron Paul for President 2008 !!!

ditto Visit The

ditto

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So

The most this spreadsheet has been off by so far is 3.5%? That's pretty impressive considering the author claims not to have the data for general meetup group sizes and libertarian party members. Hopefully other states will follow the Nevada trend. I hope 19.3% is close to accurate for Illinois. He has a lot of support from the college community, they seem to be split between him and Obama for some reason. I think a lot of them are concerned about some of Paul's economic policies and how it might effect their financial aid, etc. But I'm also seeing a huge generation gap with people over 30. Most of them I talk to like McCain.
As the author also said, there's still time to increase these numbers a lot :)

I'm a County Coordinator in

I'm a County Coordinator in Illinois and I would say that 19.3 sounds about right but may be a little high.

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No Maine? Vermont 0? Hawaii 0?

Seriously, Ron MUST go to MAINE!

We DESPERATELY need a win and he CAN WIN MAINE!

If we win Maine, we get a HUGE push in Vermont and Upstate New York (particularly North Country))

This Florida thing has got to stop - no one else is in Maine now, and they are anti-government and pro-gun.

After Florida Romney is going to go there and spend millions flooding the market.

We have to be there NOW!
Ron will NOT win Florida. It is a waste of time and money.

Mainers and Vermonters and Upstate New Yorkers all communicate.

Want proof? Today the local NY news reported that Rudy just lost a HUGE amount of his support here to McCain.

I said, Great! If Rudy looses NY that's awesome! My mom never thought he would win anyway.

I said that Rudy and Hillary would both take NY because they are NYers.

My brother yells "WHAT? She's not a New Yorker! No Way! She wasn't born here! You can't call yourself a Vermonter unless you've lived there for at least 20 years!"

My brother lived in both Vermont and Upstate NY. Their mentality is exactly the same as Maine's.

And, today my brother was complaining because his friend's neighbor called the cops on him for smoking pot in his back yard. So, My brother is voting for RON PAUL!

Figures, I couldn't convince him to vote at all. But now that someone else says "He's pro-gun and pro-pot!" He got my brother's vote!

I may be a vegetarian, but I'll defend to the death my right to eat pork!

I may be a vegetarian, but I'll defend to the death my right to eat meat!

I agree that Hawaii will be

I agree that Hawaii will be a Paul stronghold.

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Brian...

Can you tell us what the delegate count is for these states I selected below?

Treg

Yes, please BUY this wonderful libertarian BOOK! We all must know the History of Freedom! Buy it today!

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I pulled this up.

We really need to focus on the district delegates and primary dates. Take a look here: total del. / district del. / primary time
New Jersey 46% - 52 total – 39 district – super tuesday
Arkansas 34.6% - 34 total – 12 district – super tuesday
North Carolina 30.2% - 69 total – 39 district - May
Delaware 27.6% - 18 total – 3 district – super tuesday
Utah 26.1% - 36 total – 9 district – super tuesday
Colorado 21.2% - 46 total – 21 district – super tuesday
Tennessee 19.9% - 55 total – 27 district – super tuesday
Illinois 19.3% - 70 total – 57 district – super tuesday
Alabama 18% - 48 total – 21 district – super tuesday
Texas 17.9% - 140 total – 96 district - March
District of Columbia 17.8% - 19 total – 0 district – Feb. 12
North Dakota 17.8% - 26 total – 3 district – super tuesday
Alaska 17.8% - 29 total – 3 district – super tuesday
Oregon 17.2% - 30 total – 15 district - May
Florida 16.8% - 114 (57 actual) – 75 district ? – FL loses half delegates for early primary
Oklahoma 15.7% - 41 total – 15 district – super tuesday
New Mexico 15.2% - 32 total – 9 district - June
Kentucky 14.2% - 45 total – 18 district - May
Washington 12.7% - 40 total – 27 district – Feb after super tuesday
Pennsylvania 12.3% - 74 total – 57 district – April

What Does "District Delegates" Mean,

compared to "Total Delegates"?

District delegates

The way I understand it is that some delegates are already chosen. Republican chairmen and other party officials are automatically delegates. In Texas, our GOP governor Rick Perry is a delegate I believe. So these are party loyals, but the districts are alloted for the voters. In Texas, the evening of the primary the voters elect the delegates. Find out how to be a delegate in your state so we have more delegates. Technically, even though other candidates win more delegates, they could be Ron Paul supporters and swing the vote at the national conference. Anybody else chime in if I'm off on something.

If this is true: New Jersey

If this is true:

New Jersey 46%
Arkansas 34.6%
North Carolina 30.2%
Delaware 27.6%
Utah 26.1%
Colorado 21.2%
Tennessee 19.9%
Illinois 19.3%
Alabama 18%
Texas 17.9%
District of Columbia 17.8%
North Dakota 17.8%
Alaska 17.8%
Oregon 17.2%
Florida 16.8%
Oklahoma 15.7%
New Mexico 15.2%
Kentucky 14.2%
Washington 12.7%
Pennsylvania 12.3%

Then when and where will the HQ Campaign be focusing on? It makes sense to me he should focus on a "WIN", ....ASAP. The more Delegates he has going into the GOP convention, the more likely Ron Paul could pull a Rabbit out of his hat and win this thing.

What I would like to know next to this graph, is ...which is the winner take all and what is the delegate spread for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th...etc.

Anyone?

Treg

Yes, please BUY this wonderful libertarian BOOK! We all must know the History of Freedom! Buy it today!

"The System of Liberty: Themes in the History of Classical Liberalism" ...by author George Smith --
Buy it Here: http://www.amazon.com/dp/05211820

very interesting. thanks!

very interesting. thanks!

My pleasure, as

My pleasure, as always!

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Southwestern Illinois County Coordinator

Looks like a lot of work went

into that, thanks.

"We can see with our eyes, hear with our ears and feel with our touch, but we understand with our hearts."

Yeah, definitely. Visit The

Yeah, definitely.

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Ron Paul 2008
Southwestern Illinois County Coordinator

interesting

Their 16.8% prediction for Florida is in line with my 15.3% prediction (http://www.dailypaul.com/node/27069) which I always thought to be way too high, but we might be on to something here. Their Colorado and Utah prediction is also very close to what I have, but some of the other states are kind of off..although the general trend seems to be similar.

Yeah I think that people are

Yeah I think that people are missing the fact that folks in different states are... different. People in Louisiana will not vote the same as people in New Hampshire. People in Florida will NOT vote the same as people in Iowa.

If we all continue to work hard there will be results.

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What do you think? Visit The

What do you think?

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Ron Paul 2008
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Weigh by turnout

You need to weight by just how large an expected republican turnout. Nevada had a very low turnout because of less media attention so our numbers were higher. They could have been much higher still had there not been the large over representation of Romney supporters.

It really depends on a large part about how the media plays Feb 5th. Do they play it as a national election, and encourage everyone to show up, or do they overplay a few states and not properly motivate all states.

actually

the reason for the low turnout for nevada was because they changed from primary in the past to a caucus.

I still and will always feel

I still and will always feel that 6000 voters in Nevada was wrong--especially with Romney getting 22,000..something was definitely nuts there...

Doesn't matter

Iowa had 20 times (or 10 if you assume ronpaulgraphs is half counting) the number of votes in a caucus as donations.
Nevada had 5 ( or just 2.5 taking the same assumption) the amount of votes than donations.

Thats ridiculously low