26 votes

Update:Looks like a shortage in Physical Silver is shaping up

Here is the original post and status as of April 12. I've updated to reflect activity as of April 15
You can see the record sales at the US Mint site:

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cf...

As of April 15 the mint has not yet updated its sales to reflect Friday and Monday's action

In spite of record sales and production online sites seem to have trouble keeping up with orders
Here is a quick survey of some online precious metal sites:

JM bullion: 15 business delay on silver eagles
http://www.jmbullion.com/2013-american-silver-eagle/

April 15:the delay warning is across the top of the page but what is interesting they are selling individual 2013 silver eagles for $30.36 while the spot price right now is $22.41-nearly an $8 an ounce premium

Provident:looks like most of its silver products are out of stock. I could only find a 2011 silver eagle for sale at $5+over spot price
http://www.providentmetals.com/coins/us-silver-coins.html?li...

http://www.providentmetals.com/2011-american-silver-eagle-br...

April 15: the front page features a product called Wise Fire, an eco friendly fuel source! That's right a Precious metal company selling fuel.
and the 2011 silver eagle reference on April 12 is now unavailable

Apmex: Random year silver eagles are sold out. The 2013 contains a note that they are being sold on a limited basis
http://www.apmex.com/Category/160/Silver_Eagles___Uncirculat...

April 15: now charging $29.28 for the 2013 Silver eagle and the limited basis language is now gone and a delayed till April 24 notice is included.

Golden Eagle Coin: Has a delay on silver eagles to April 19
http://www.goldeneaglecoin.com/Buy_Silver/Silver_American_Ea...
April 15:increased their delayed shipping date till May 3

Bullion direct: Surprisingly seems to have inventory and the best price!
http://www.bulliondirect.com/catalog/lp/US_Mint_American_Eagle_Silver_Coin_(1.00_oz).html

April 15: claims to have silver eagles for $25.83!

Northwest Territorial Mint: Has eagles if you buy 60 or more http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_americaneagle.php

April 15: still has eagles if you buy 60 or more and the price is $27.50

Gainesville coins says allow 5-7 days to ship- not sure if that means it will take 5-7 days to get your order or that they won't send out your order for 5-7 days after they receive it:
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/162421/2013-1-oz-am...
April 15 delay is explicit till April 30
Selling silver eagles for $28.47 if you do a bank wire, $29.31 by credit card

Kitco
https://online.kitco.com/?utm_source=New_Store_Tab_Top_Nav&u...
Wasnt covered in the original post.
Status as of April 15:now running a big banner noting high volume and delays



Trending on the Web

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Cyril's picture

Physical shortage or not, also very relevant and recent remarks

Physical shortage or not (only "God knows" so to speak), also very relevant and recent remarks from Mike about what is likely happening behind the veil, IMO :

Today's Low Gold & Silver Prices Are Not Realistic

http://www.dailypaul.com/281898/mike-maloney-todays-low-gold...

'HTH,

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

Golden eagle coin has moved its ship date

To April 30

Please subscribe to smaulgld.com

Cyril's picture

I'm still waiting for delivery of an order I placed on 03/29

I'm still waiting for delivery of an order I placed on 03/29 at a known supplier and I paid 3 days after.

They have these milestones: 1)awaiting payment - 2)confirmed payment - 3)processing - 4)shipping - 5)processed.

That order is still in state 2)confirmed payment.

Note: and it's a rather small order of course (< 4 digits).

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

I made an order back late

I made an order back late last week and I am not even going to bother expecting it at my door until late May at this point.

Southern Agrarian

jrd3820's picture

Cyril

I placed an order on 3/26 just got it yesterday. Stack on and stack away it might just take a bit longer to make it to you for the time being.

“I like nonsense, it wakes up the brain cells. Fantasy is a necessary ingredient in living.”
― Dr. Seuss

Cyril's picture

Oh, okay, thanks.

Oh, okay, thanks. But I'm not worried, not even impatient or surprised. That's not gonna last many more years at this price anyway.

Thanks for sharing. :)

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

Update on silver

Jm bullion now stretces delivery to 20 days "as a result of recent high volume"
http://www.jmbullion.com/2013-american-silver-eagle/

Goldsilver.com now has a May 4 estimated delivery date
Mike Maloney of gold silver gives his views on the chris Martenson show here

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/81512/mike-maloney-tod...

Please subscribe to smaulgld.com

Michael

I respect the dickens outta you for running one of the best informational sites in the world....., but...

COME ON MAN! Silver to $15 and then to $10?

You do realize that right now you cant find major silver products for under $30? Premiums on eagles, maples, 90% are all now routinely $5 OVER spot.

Why?

It's because JPM and company are carpet bombing to cover the rest of their shorts. Nothing more.

In 2009, they took paper silver from $21 to 9. It then went from 9 to 50.....because there was there PHYSICAL underlying product to buy at that price.

$25.90 silver is Candyland fantasy. There's nowhere in the world that someone can show up to buy 10 or even 5 million oz of silver for that price. It doesn't exist.

When JPM is done covering, and that time should come within a week or two, they'll have all of the folks here thinking 'it's headed back to $5 for years'....while they've stuffed their vaults with it, and ride their longs up to triple digits.

I'm just saying....Even all the shorts in SLV have now been covered. The shorts dropped from 36 million shares to 6 million now. JPM has already covered in SLV! Now they're finishing covering in Comex futures.

Don't be fooled people. You well know that we all live in the Matrix.

The illusion will shatter when gold and silver lift off again.

Keep stacking

There is no Silver shortage, you can buy eagles anywhere, its just that you can't get 2013 eagles as easily. Its still the beginning of 2013. Still stack though.

The US Mint just rationed Eagles

For the third time in 3 months!

I'm talking about a big boy investor, who wanted to source 5 to 10 million ounces TODAY, and wanted to pay CASH for delivery immediately.

That amount of silver does not exist.

Nowhere in the world can you make that happen, even if you pay 100% up front.

That's why I'm saying this is the beginning of the real shortage that will strike all the way up the totem pole....first from wholesale and retailers...and then up to mines and refiners....whose delay times are already 10 weeks, and may at some point be 3 to 6 months.

Yes, by all means, agreed....keep stacking. Bring these banks down.

Agree no shortage but mow there are production delays

Which means the mints cant keep upmwith demand

Please subscribe to smaulgld.com

Keep in mind prior year silver eagles were not minted in

Great numbers so if the 2013 production doesnt keep up the older year stocks will deplete quickly

Please subscribe to smaulgld.com

Are the retail physical buyers (i.e. most of us) just suckers?

It seems like all the so called smart money is betting on declining prices. Yet, the mints can't keep up with surging demand for coins. The retail buyers are the ones loading up on Silver Eagles, it isn't hedge funds and ETFs.

Personally, I just can't see a sustained collapse in metal prices. I've drunk the Peter Schiff Kool Aid I guess. My investments have been an absolute disaster over the past two years, but I just keep buying whatever I can. I still believe that FRNs are a bad place to store savings. Even so, I would have been better off over the last two years to stick cash under my mattress.

We all want progress, but if you're on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive.

-C. S. Lewis

Supply and Demand

Many people believe that the law of supply and demand applies to gold and silver in the same way that it applies to other economic goods and services. Anything that trades on commodity or financial exchanges involving the use of leverage behaves much differently however.
If you'd like to attain a better understanding of the behavior of financial products and avoid some of the pitfalls of linear thinking regarding news reports about so called fundamental supply and demand factors then I recommend the following article/paper:

http://www.socionomics.net/pdf/jbf_financial-economic-dichot...

hmmm .. so buyers are

hmmm .. so buyers are outpacing sellers 50 to 1. And this is your socio economic BS? this is laughable.

Still the question is who is right?

Interesting article, and here is a quote from it:

"In utilitarian economic settings, where certainty is the norm, people reason; in financial settings, where uncertainty is pervasive, they herd....Unfortunately, when investors in a modern financial setting look to the herd for guidance, they do not realize that most others in the herd are just as uninformed, ignorant and uncertain as they are."

The question is, which is the uniformed herd: the retail investors loading up on coins, or the big players shorting futures contracts?

We all want progress, but if you're on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive.

-C. S. Lewis

I'm guessing that's the

"uninformed herd"?

Since JPM etc., seem to have an informed (if evil) agenda to artificially
depress the value of gold/silver to make the value of fiat currency,
derivatives and such appear higher by comparison,

And since the retail coin, etc. investors are making a reasonably informed
bet against the value of fiat currency, etc.,

Then, I'd say that the uninformed herd is neither of them.

Wouldn't that consist of those who are blindly proceeding on the assumption
that the value of paper assets isn't going to just go "poof" and will somehow
continue to be worth something ?

We Don't Know Who's Right

In 2008 my brother and I bet a bottle of wine on the direction of crude oil oil prices. He said it would go above $100 before the end of the year. I said it would go below $60. Crude prices did BOTH in a very short period of time, so we were both right but neither won the bet. Had we been trading crude oil futures we could have both won, or lost, large sums of money - who knows, right?
The point is that at the top the "fundamental" arguments are so strong and logically sound that higher prices seem inevitable. The same is true of bottoms, and in both cases the market proves the fundamentals wrong.

Just how important is the stock price of silver?

As an investment. Is it important to eventually have a bunch of silver? Or is it important that the proposed dollar value is high?

I'm not joking. Which is more important?

If...

If you envision an economy based on silver, then it is important to have enough silver to carry out the transactions you wish to carry out in that economy. If you envision an economy based on silver, then the wfrn and its value are irrelevant.

If you envision an economy based on the wfrn, then you're seeing something I can't see, and I have no comment on your question.

I am getting scared

Silver has been bottom-bouncing since mid 2011. It is back under 27 for the sixth time. Gold is looking pitiful too. The only positive thing I have seen was an article in the Wash. Post (I think it was) about how gold is petering out.

I raised an alarm here on DP when silver was at 47. No one wanted to hear it. Alas, all I did was to buy some puts. I made money on those, but I kept all my physical. I should listen to myself more.

Ĵīɣȩ Ɖåđşŏń

"Fully half the quotations found on the internet are either mis-attributed, or outright fabrications." - Abraham Lincoln

Michael Nystrom's picture

Next stop 20, eventually back to 10

That what I see on that chart. The move to 20 should be pretty fierce & quick. There is multi year support there. The bottom fishers will come in and it'll bounce around there for a few years. There might be a quick stab down to 15, then bouncing around between 15-20 for a few years, and the eventual, slow rot to 10 as the early birds get disgusted / need to liquidate because they need the money.

Gold dropped through its similarly structure support shelf this morning:

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GCJ13&t=BAR&size=M&v=2...

My speculation in DUST has paid off well.

So are you going to listen to yourself now?

He's the man.

Michael if the gold and silver markets are manipulated

Can charts be a decent predictor of price movememts?

Please subscribe to smaulgld.com

How can gold mining stocks be

How can gold mining stocks be going up if the price of gold be going down? At a certain point, it becomes worthless to keep mining for gold because of the small return. But there is an incredible demand for both gold and silver right now. The laws of supply and demand are being manipulated.

Right now gold mining stocks

Right now gold mining stocks are getting hammered. I'd say they're already pricing in $1200/oz gold. Whether gold actually gets that low I am in no position to guess.

The truth is that for most of the gold boom you'd have been better off holding gold rather than gold stocks. While the gold price was going up the expenses of mining gold were rising faster. And now gold is off $400 from its peak. Also, during the early stage of the gold boom gold stocks were priced at outrageous P/Es, like 40. Now they're priced at sane P/Es like 10, meaning the price has come down.

Silver miners are also getting creamed

The casey group had a webinar on the gold miners and how under valued and sold off they were

Please subscribe to smaulgld.com

with overwhelming demand and

with overwhelming demand and sales? shortages? how can the law of supply and demand, that economic law be trashed?

Something else is going on here. Not Prechter's analysis.

Michael Nystrom's picture

Prechter says we'll experience deflation

When the credit bubble pops. His theory is the "all one market theory" - i.e. that everything rises/ has been rising on the bubble of increasing fiat credit. Eventually, the entire bubble pops, and everything comes down in price. Comes down in price because the inflation reverses. The upward spiral of creation becomes a downward spiral of destruction. The destruction is of the FRNs.

As FRNs become more scarce, the remaining ones become more valuable. As they become more valuable, they can buy more. Which is another way of saying that prices fall.

We all know that FRNs can be created from thin air. What Prechter says is that they can - and will - also disappear back into thin air.

What is wrong with that analysis? How much "wealth" got destroyed in the last crash? Something like $8 trillion, if I recall. Gold and gold stocks took a dump back then too (2007 - 2009) if I recall.

Anyway - what do the COTs say now?

He's the man.
the stranger's picture

Prechter is an idiot

You keep equating collapse with deflation; they are not synonymous. The FRNs may be created out of thin air and disappear into black holes, but the debt remains.

If the market economy were a combustion engine and the goods and services running through it were the gasoline, money would simply be recycled lubricant. Printing money is like lowering the viscosity of the oil, at some point the engine will seize.

If you increase the coin in circulation you have inflation, decrease for deflation; apply this monetary rule to money substitutes, apply it to credit. But if you and I are keeping score on a notepad, for a game we've been playing for years, and you rip out half the pages – that ain't deflation – that's chaos and game over. The derivatives and financial magic destroyed any possibility that FRNs will reverse trend and “be worth more.” Beyond temporary fluctuations FRNs are worth less, in time, and that is a hundred year trend.

Quantity of Money theory breaks down here because honest money left the room. Deflation will not make FRNs more valuable – deflation is game over. I'm so damn tired of this debate. I wish you'd find every reference to this subject I've made on the Daily Paul and re-post it.

Reckoning deflation. Making sense of money matters. Real money.

The Stranger on Deflation Here are all your deflation comments, per your request.

  1. Prechter is an idiot----- 04/15/2013 02:20
  2. the brakes are melting-- 04/08/2012 04:12
  3. overlooked point-------- 01/26/2011 00:58
  4. Extra! Extra! Deflation! Deflation! 01/22/2011 18:55
  5. Inflation/Deflation------ 01/22/2011 18:29

    I think that the terms inflation and deflation are constantly misused, abused and misconstrued. But the condition during the Great Depression, of a gold backed currency, partly caused the deflation. A hundred years later, since “we’re all Keynesians now” an opposite situation exists.

    The FRN is synthetic or fake money, but it’s not the only fake money. We have an alphabet soup of pseudo bonds, we have derivatives in astronomical numbers, and we have fraud and counterfeit beyond calculation. Loans will default and those FRNs will disappear, to be instantly replaced, or not. But at some point in time, the quantity of money theory will break down.

    We don’t have a monetary system, we have a monetary process. And that process is like an explosion. Constant expansion until it can no longer expand....

  6. Deflation?---------------- 01/22/2011 17:00
  7. consequences------------ 09/05/2007 00:11
  8. Gold and Silver are cash-- 09/01/2007 11:22

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul