16 votes

Gold Warning! (don't take my word for it)...

Clive Maund is a respected analyst, known for his no-nonsense look at technicals. He has no axe to grind. His latest report gives pause to any notion we are at a bottom in gold.
For the record, I am still a long term gold bull, but I agree with Mr. Maund that we have much more down side before we see a bottom. I just don't wan't fellow freedom lovers to get caught up in the hype of going "all in" at the wrong time, and hope you give due consideration to this report.

http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2013-04-22




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Clive Maund

is an excellent contra-indicator.

Leges sine moribus vanae

fireant's picture

Maund's follow-up report:

"Gold's post-plunge rally of the past 9 trading days has been quite impressive, given what preceded it, but it has not vitiated the implications of the support failure and plunge, and it won’t until either a substantial base pattern forms, or the price breaks back above the strong support that has now become strong resistance."
http://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2013-04-28

Undo what Wilson did

Short

I am short Gold and Long the dollar...............Lets see anyone else be that contrarian.

fireant's picture

Full disclosure...

I am positioned accordingly. Not based on this analysis though, and certainly not long term; just until I am convinced we have seen a bottom in gold. For the record, any physical I own I do not trade.

Undo what Wilson did

hold dollars in one hand and

hold dollars in one hand and gold/silver in the other. See which goes to 0 first.

“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy.”
― Ron Paul

fireant's picture

When?

That's the question no one can answer.
In the meantime, it is just as possible to be able to purchase gold for many fewer dollars in the next few months as it is possible to be paying more.

Undo what Wilson did

Tomorrow? Next week? Next

Tomorrow? Next week? Next year? 10 years?

Who knows the exact day when the treasury and derivative time bombs will finally explode and take down the dollar and all financial pieces of paper. I do know one thing though...if you are still holding out and waiting to get the absolute best price on gold...you may wake up one morning and find the door will be slammed shut on you. You'll realize that NOBODY will give you their metals for those goofy green pieces of paper. That's the world we are speeding into.

The best advice is to dollar cost average and buy on a regular periodic basis.

“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy.”
― Ron Paul

Anti-gold and also a 9/11 disinfo agent

Fireant - how about a reply on your most recent ridiculous 9/11 thread.

fireant's picture

Actually kevink...

I am sick of your childish personal attacks. I am tired of trying to be nice, or ignore all the attacks. What do you think that does to help inure the name of Ron Paul? Huh?
All I do is present facts as I have discovered them. All I get in return for the hard work is crap responses like yours. Do you call that "critical thinking". If you don't openly consider all the facts, critical thinking is impossible, and you blind yourself to another's agenda, doing the work of unseen masters. Open thy eyes. You have been duped.

Undo what Wilson did

Fair Enough

At least you responded. Below is the URL of the 9/11 post I was referring to. I will continue the conversation there if anyone is interested.

http://www.dailypaul.com/283698/steel-reinforced-building-co...

fireant's picture

Perhaps you should go there and respond.

But I will repeat here. Look up my 4+ year history of posts on this board before you jump to conclusions of "anti-gold" or "dis-info".
Is that how you jump to conclusions about 911 too? It is no wonder you are so confused.

Undo what Wilson did

I did continue the convo there

Please reply to my comment on that thread.

Cyril's picture

Well, from my point of view,

Well, from my point of view, for gold to start being worrisome as a store of value, that would require:

1) gold to lose 75% of its current value in fiat USD's, below $350/oz, over a year or, worse, over a decade (for more "agony")

2) stay stuck there or go further below for a couple more decades

3) and today's price inflation to become zero % starting from tomorrow and stay so as long.

Rationale?

Here's why:

http://www.dailypaul.com/283943/the-power-to-create-money-in...

Just IMO.

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

You're a gold fan so I'm sure

You're a gold fan so I'm sure you'll find this interesting.

In India EVERYONE, from the richest to the poorest family who can afford it buy gold at diwali. It is usually in the form of jewellery or less commonly decorative pieces.

It is called 'Stri Dhan' or woman's wealth. It is collected and retained in the family for generations and kept as an emergency fund which is left untouched unless some contingency occurs.

It is also a tradition for the bride's family to give her some gold as a wedding present. As a country we are obsessed with gold.

But here is the thing. Right now there is plenty of money in the market but it is not flowing into gold. Almost everyone is investing in tech startups and other businesses, and for storage of wealth, land is becoming a very important vehicle despite the obvious drawbacks.

Of course this is just the view from where I'm standing, but even though gold is cheaper (the shopkeepers advertise this on their hoardings) people are not rushing in. I guess there are faster growing investments which may be as safe as or safer than gold and people are investing in people rather than metals.

Cyril's picture

Yes, that's interesting

Yes, that's interesting.

My only comment is I'd take it the people in India are likely wiser culturally and intellectually (regarding money) than ourselves in most, if not all, western countries.

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

I would not say wiser, but

I would not say wiser, but the concept of gold as wealth completely separate from the currency of the day is a good cultural hedge against inflation.

We don't yet have the credit card culture here so people also believe in savings. Bank interest rates are also decent. For example, at 60 my dad gets almost 10% on his FDs as a senior citizen, however there is a hard limit on deposits at $30000 per year.

On the whole Indians are more financially conservative than westerners (wish I could say that for the govt too).

Cyril's picture

Gold fan? Not really, not more than about silver

Gold fan? Not really, not more than about silver anyway, which I mostly own still to date.

But granted, to me, these are the only two forms of real money.

That alone means something.

If I imagine a case where gold would be smashed down to $900/oz or less while silver would manage to get back in at least the $30ish/oz, sure:

I wouldn't hesitate for a second to sell a quarter or a third of my silver to convert it into gold.

Among the small people, I can't afford a Gold/Silver ratio over 60 for that. But should the latter go back under 30, that'd be a no brainer for me to own gold.

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.

http://Laissez-Faire.Me/Liberty

"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

fireant's picture

What is your vantage point? Do you have a source?

This is interesting information, if verifiable in some way.

Undo what Wilson did

Vantage point is of a guy who

Vantage point is of a guy who successfully raised money for his own business as well as for others. Also as someone who has been selling off land to property developers (over here encroachment is a big problem unless you have time to devote to it, so have been forced to do so).

Its hearsay, I'm afraid, though the traditional stockpiling of gold in the form of jewellery is something you can easily look up.

The flow of money I don't know if I can document so well. Because of the strong family structures here, a lot of the money is provided by private backers through undocumented short term debt.

I have a friend in law school who has a small start up registering companies for engineering students and filing for patents and what I heard from him confirmed that there is a lot of investment for new companies especially tech start ups. Again hearsay but I'm sure it will reflect in figures that come out at the end of the fiscal year.

fireant's picture

Thanks. If you live there,

then you can see what is happening.
Nothing like eyes and ears on the ground.

Undo what Wilson did

I only use technical analysis to gage when to buy/sell

not on whether to buy/sell. Use fundamentals to determine if you are going to buy or sell. Fundamentals seem to be pointing towards higher gold and silver despite short term drops.

So...

I am not an economist, although I do read about economics out of interest, and I don't pretend to be an expert.

However I have no idea how anyone seems to think you will "lose" buying gold?

Even if the price of gold drops in FRN's, it isn't like the price (or purchasing power) of FRN's is going up soon. So why does it matter? FRNs will continue to be worth crap, and will continue to inflate.

Gold seems like a fairly sound purchase, even if the "price" goes down. Especially if the currency eventually collapses (of course no one has a timeframe on that).

Going "ALL IN" is always, always...

a not-very-good bet....wouldn't be surprised to see silver at $18 and gold at $1100...remember the controllers of the paper metals control pretty much everything...funny story...went to my local dealer today for the first time in a year...a year ago he was up to the hilt in PM's....silver bullion galore, even those awful casino coins, let alone the 'scrap' bullion (oddly weighted loaves, commemorative coins from who knows where, probably your butcher, etc)... so as I was saying, I went in today to do a little load up on cheap silver just to discover that all that I considered bs about physical supply being short...I show up and there was almost NOTHING ! I personally can't stand Max Keiser but the fuccer was right! And everyone that was saying PHYSICAL was drying up! Gold too! My local dealer a year ago was swinging big-dick 30 oz. gold in the display case...today there was, mnyeah, about 6 oz. I'm starting to see "sold out" signs on PM dealers. Can you say "Artificially lowered spot price so all the bastards can move in and take the physical for a ridiculously discounted rate?" That's what I see going on here. NO 2013 Silver Eagles. NO MORE than a combined 12 oz. of gold to be sold. I'm in Seattle, not Beaver Utah. I'm the UTMOST SKEPTIC but my trip to my local dealer today PROVED to me there IS a physical shortage. The guy said at the counter that he'd NEVER SEEN an actual Canadian Timber Wolf. Really? I've got loads of them!EVERYTHING is disconnected. Despite years of study and action I don't know (other that theft) what Wall St. and the Big Bansters and Government Tools are doing, but to me it SEEMS to be manipulating and scaring you out of your holdings...which is the usual tactic...'search and destroy(henry rollins would be so proud!)' Don't necessarily 'stack' but be aware, IT IS TRUE! LOCAL SHORTAGES! I hate to say this, but this was my and has been my experience! Questions? Happy to answer!

Is it a true shortage, or simply hoarding their supply...

.....?

"If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." -- James Madison

Local silver shortage here, too.

You can still find it in small quantities, but if you want to make a major purchase, you're out of luck.

This is the article that got my posting privileges revoked:
http://bklim.newsvine.com/_news/2013/05/12/18212165-dr-stan-...

That's it

No more chasing rainbows for me.

On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron.

Technical analysis is not to

Technical analysis is not to be trusted because it is little more than an intuitive belief.

Conclusions based on technical analysis have about the same value as conclusions from a psychologist, numerologist, astrologist, homeopathologist, medium, (insert your favourite snake-oil distributor here)

Please visit my site for more information about my libertarian book. Thanks!

People need to stop and

People need to stop and actually apply thought to this. Are you in a paper gold or silver scam where you buy low and sell high, or are you logical and realize that gold and silver are a store of value, not an investment, and shouldn't be traded like stocks? Spot price means nothing for the physical metal.

Please come join my forum if you're not a trendy and agree with my points of view.

How many FRNs is your metal worth?

Does not compute... I just don't understand why people HERE keep caring. If you do not understand the difference between fiat currency and real metal, in your possession... Well, I can color real purty. Please, let me color up some pretty papers for you, and lets trade. What do you have that you will give me for my purty paper?
More important, to me: How many bombs can they make using my metal? ZERO. How many FRNs is that worth? It is worth a world full of children coloring pretty pictures to me.

This is the article that got my posting privileges revoked:
http://bklim.newsvine.com/_news/2013/05/12/18212165-dr-stan-...

Oh, I don't know, because

Oh, I don't know, because barely any jobs out there pay people in anything but dollars?

Please come join my forum if you're not a trendy and agree with my points of view.