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Gold And Silver Dead Cat Bounce And More Carnage To Come Or All In?

Last week we saw some real carnage in the gold and silver markets. In two days, April 12 and April 15, we saw the price of gold fall over $200 and many in the financial media came out of the woodwork saying the gold bull was over. Since that time we have had a move off the low of $1,322 reached April 15th to the current price of just over $1,470, a nice $140+ pop back up in price. Silver yesterday was up more than $1.30 at $24.24 This leaves investors wanting to know, have we hit bottom in gold and silver and will this be the 13th year straight of higher gold prices or will we continue the pattern of lower lows?

In September of 2011, the dollar hit a low of 74.14 as seen in the following chart. Below that you will see the chart as to where the dollar is today, April 26, 2013, currently sitting at just below 83 on the index.

DollarIndexLow2011

DollarIndex2013

From November of 2011 to today, you can read what my comments have been about the gold and silver markets in an article I wrote last Monday, Gold and Silver Doom and Gloom or Crack Up Boom?

Some highlights from that article;

"I said I believe we get one more push down in gold and silver." "I believe the domino's will start falling in the eurozone and Japan first." "Gold is still in its second and longest phase. The professionals will still try and buck you off the gold and silver bull." "Market Makers love to move markets they can control." "I fully expect over the next few months the Market Makers to test and break the 200 day moving averages lower on both gold and silver. Why not make them scream UNCLE? That's what they do!"

Well, last Monday we got that fall in price where the price was pushed down producing the candlestick long tail down that typically signifies a reversal in price as seen in the chart below. And a reversal in price is what we got since that time, but is it sustainable?

Candlesticktail

Short Term Thinking vs. Long Term Planning

Continued at Seeking Alpha: http://bit.ly/ZTixuq




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I smell a dead cat

We'll see how far she goes down and if we test the April 15th lows. I will be writing an article by the end of this month that will be bullish with an 80% probability of gold and silver moving higher.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Great article Doug. I agree,

Great article Doug. I agree, one more push down then watch. the next phase of this bull market is going to be wild. Fortunes will be made.
Silver will hit 22 to 20. The bears will have been sucked in by the commercials then watch the commercials take it higher. They want to take it higher alone.

Thanks

Thanks Sierra, the 3rd euphoria stage will be something to behold!

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Dead Cat Bounce

I'm going with dead cat bounce. I think the Precious metals Bull Market is over and I expect the next leg of rapid deflation to hit hard when we have our next major sovereign default. Remember when the banks were robbed in Cyprus it was not credit or gold and silver that mattered, it was CASH IN HAND.

freestater,

I am a deflationist, via credit contraction, but you are mistaken in what people will view as perceived wealth and real wealth, the subject matter of my next book, "Illusions of Wealth."

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

The problem is that the

The problem is that the premiums are up for most things, especially 1ozt silver. It is about the same as it was the friday before the big fall.

As I see it right now a person has to look at how much he has in these metals and where his average per ozt is before deciding if it is worth buying. The premiums are too high right now to buy silver. Some gold coins can be had for normal premium levels atm, those are probably fine to get.

The suckers on the paper side of the market have to be getting thin now.

During the big drop, what I thought of is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw

Sadly that isn't the full scene.

silver premiums

Tetra, the premiums didn't pass over the $4 and $5 mark until after the carnage of the 15th. Until the premiums return to normal (when Mints catch up with demand), the best buy are the 100 ounce silver bars at about $1.45, give or take over spot.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

$1.15 over spot 100oz bars at provident.

i have bought 1 oz coins here ant there around 25$...remember silver is silver.i usually don't care if one press has more pressure than the other lol

gonna join the May 1st buy...http://silverdoctors.com/on-may-1st-we-fight-back/#more-25668

It all depends

It all depends Iron-Paul. While I agree silver is silver, those who buy like to know what they are going to get for it if they decide to sell.

I just checked Provident's site and they have only 100 ounce bars minted by NTR. This is $1.43 over spot, within the range I mentioned.

http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/silver/private-slv/10...

My cost as a dealer is $1.23 over spot, FYI. I have been recommending 100 ounce bars because of the high premium for all the coins right now.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

i agree...but

NTR 100oz bar sells for $2533.

$2533 / 100 = $25.33(1oz)

worlds spot price according to Provident is $24.14oz difference of $1.19 over spot.

Apmex is stating $24.07 difference of $1.26 over spot.

i am no expert but i am trying to figure out where do you come up with $1.43 over spot?maybe there something im not seeing...

buying silver at the cheapest price always worked for me. i have a few eagle maple Philharmonics tubes but been more successful with generic rounds and bars.Just my opinion. like i said i am always learning and open to others strategies...

interesting

Apmex bars $1.79 over spot for their own brand, that was the cheapest I saw.

Maybe I should mint my own!

Don't know how I came up with that price. Strange. But how come Provident doesn't list the buy back price?

Thanks...I stick with what is in my opinion the most liquid. At some point this will be an important issue. eBay is a good indicator of what is selling popularity wise, but I still recommend nsme brand mints.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

fair enough.

good question about provident...gonna give them a call Monday.

hehe let me know when you start minting i will defiantly buy a few.

just bought your book "Buy Gold and Silver Safely" on Amazon and looking forward in reading that.

Thank you

You will like the subliminal support of RP. There is a method to my madness.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Where is the resistance?

Isnt it at about 1060? Thats the level I would be looking to buy in at.

All in!

Wish I could buy more.

"We have allowed our nation to be over-taxed, over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The founders would be ashamed of us for what we are putting up with."
-Ron Paul

Wish

we had our own printing press!

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

3d alchemy? lol!

All in. I still say silver is the way to go, and that anything under $50 is a bargain. That has been their "magic number" for decades, everyone "knows" silver will never go above $50. But then, I hold silver primarily so that those who make weapons with silver do not hold it. FRN "values" are sort of laughable to me.

This is the article that got my posting privileges revoked:
http://bklim.newsvine.com/_news/2013/05/12/18212165-dr-stan-...

deacon's picture

most will hope and or pray

you are wrong about silver not going above $50
it still creates a better gain than keeping it in a bank
and there is no need to worry about it getting stolen to fund more wars
I recently bought on the low,and made a small profit
i see a day when precious metals being the top of the food chain
with the paper on the bottom or non-existent,for thousands of years wars were fought over it(they didn't fight over paper assets
the ones who are holding fiat money(the to of the food chain)
will be at the bottom,they do not create a thing
they cannot grow a garden,they cannot mow their own lawns,and when their lawn mowers quit,for any reason,they but a new one
one day they will work for us,and probably for a days meal
the world is upside down and it has to right itself,this puts the ones top now,on the bottom
deacon

setting your expectations to high,can cause depression

That is just the word in the "industry."

I think it is going over $50, I think that when it does it will be a signal that they have finally lost control, and it will either go way over 50 or people will stop talking about its "value" in fiat currency.

This is the article that got my posting privileges revoked:
http://bklim.newsvine.com/_news/2013/05/12/18212165-dr-stan-...