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Prediction: What will the fair market value be of Kid Rock's $20 tickets?

Kid "I'm f--king embarrassed to be a Republican" Rock is putting on a $20 nationwide tour. All seats, all venues, just $20.

After supporting Mitt Romney during the general election, here's a choice quote about the party itself:

"That's one of the times I'm f--king embarrassed to be a Republican," Rock said. "It's f--king Republican lawmakers passing those laws, you dumbasses. They already did it in New York and they're trying to do it in Michigan. I've even called some of those guys to try and stop it."

I predict that the $20 tickets will adjust to market rates, and we'll hear stories of outrages prices being asked, and what a scandal it will be.

Sugarman came to the Somerville Theater, and scalped tickets were going for over $1,000 per pop.

But the article also says that Kid Rock is

also putting up tickets on sites like StubHub in an effort to combat scalping. Rock, who said that all musicians "have huge f--king egos," cited overpriced ticketing on tours by artists like The Rolling Stones as a big problem for the music industry: "The Rolling Stones are charging $650 per ticket! That just makes me speechless. I love the Stones, but I won't be attending."

Let's see if we hear on any Kid Rock tickets in the mid triple digits.

How much do concert tickets go for these days? Maybe our resident music expert jrd380 will know.

So here's a project. Track the market price of Kid Rock's ticket prices when he comes to your town. Look for them on Craigslist, and call up the scalpers and strike up a conversation - friendly. People talk to friendly people (trust me). Try to see what he's doing: Is he a fan? What does he think of the promotion? Why would you want to sell above $20 if Kid Rock doesn't want you to? etc.

Report back with insights.

Graph the true market. Calculate the market cap of the concert, and watch it change, if the values of the tickets behave the same way as the value of stocks.

Since each ticket is created equal - $20 - they are, in effect, all the same -- at least from a financial point of view. If they are all the same, it means that if someone buys a scalped ticket for $600, then suddenly all of the tickets are worth $600.

Calculate how much money Kid Rock "lost" by not charging as much as he humanly possibly could have.

Ponder - where did that money that Kid Rock "lost" - try to figure out, where did it "go?"

Analyze - What was the true intent of stunt? Is it goodwill? Or clever marketing. Pretty clever I'd say.

Explain - I don't know much about Kid Rock, his music, his audience, except he sang for Mitt Romney and him and Sean Penn did that corny skit. Good intentioned, or marketing? Both, really.

There are no clear lines - everything is blurry, because we're in that transition phase - from dark to light, or light to dark, depending on what your own persuasion is. Everything eventually becomes its opposite.

- - - rambling - - - -

What do you guys think of the Kid Rock project?

Here's what I think: People think this $20 ticket idea is great. Cheap tickets! What they don't realize is that there is still a cost to that "cheap." It just comes out in other ways. And the market always finds equilibrium. And there is a journey of discovery to be had. Some learning is going to take place here. This is about to challenge what some people believe, and shake them up.

On the other hand, here's an article that reads like a press release for Live Nation:


It is a pretty advanced, and long term marketing strategy:

"You know, $20 is the kind of ticket price where you don’t really have to plan six months in advance to budget for it," Bongiovanni said. "It can be more of a spur of the moment purchase. And the fact they are having the $4 beers means it’s not going to cost you a fortune to go out and enjoy yourself.”

He's playing to the down & out. People that don't save, and don't plan ahead. Yo - ho! And wait! As if that weren't enough, $4 beers! He's looking to the future:

"I think Kid Rock plans to be around for a while and is probably hoping to be touring five years from now and still making a good living,” Bongiovanni said. “He’s treating his audience very well, and the thing about this promotion is that everyone can see it’s a good deal - whether it’s the beer prices or the $20 tickets."

"Everyone can see it's a good deal."

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People will pay whatever they

People will pay whatever they think they are worth. If someone is going to pay several hundred for a ticket, they obviously think its worth it.

To climb the mountain, you must believe you can.

i don't care what you think about

the man or his music. pricing tickets at $20 is being good to your fans.
so i tip my hat to him.

well Sir McCartney, i'd still love to see you once, ball is in your court.

"The two weakest arguments for any issue on the House floor are moral and constitutional"
Ron Paul

I'm not sure what the market value is for Kid Rock tickets.

But my own subjective valuation would be around -$100.00, as in you would have to pay me around $100.00 in order to get me to attend one of his shows.

I like his change of mind on Republican politics, but I still can't stand his music.

Check out the Laissez-Faire Journal at LFJournal.com

"The State is a gang of thieves writ large." - Murray Rothbard

Rolling Stones had to lower prices to fill the venue.

"With the group’s “50 and Counting” tour kicking off in Los Angeles on May 3, pairs of $600 floor seats were still available yesterday for Staples Center arena, based on the sales website of Anschutz Entertainment Group Inc., the Staples owner and promoter of the Rolling Stones tour.

“To anyone not working in investment banking, these are extremely expensive tickets,” said Gary Bongiovanni, editor-in- chief of Pollstar, a concert-industry magazine."

Even the generation of "sex, drugs and rock and roll" is tired of getting rufied and screwed for a little music.

Love or fear? Choose again with every breath.

Unless he was planning on doing something spectacular,

like setting himself on fire, I wouldn't spend a buck on him.

There are no politicians or bankers in foxholes.



Southern Agrarian

I learned to ski on "free passes" when the going rate was

between $30 and $65 for a day pass, per person. A family pass was typically most of $1000 bucks. After the promotion that got us free passes ended we figured we'd have to give it up, but that winter our local resort offered $199 family passes. Skiing in general was waning, the slopes were abandoned on weekdays. They did it to generate a little business. The response was overwhelming - all the local resorts now offer similar values, and you can get multi-resort passes for even better deals. Skiing is wildly popular again, and over the 15 years since they dropped the price, it has only crept up to $229, that increase happened this year.
I won't go to concerts any more. The price for a ticket usually exceeds the price for me to go buy every CD they made, and have better quality and control of the volume. If artists brought the price back down to something where I felt I was getting fair value for my money, I might go again. I'm saying $20 IS the fair market price... whether Kid Rock's fans will agree is questionable, but there is my prediction. $20.

Love or fear? Choose again with every breath.

from what i saw on wnem news,

the tickets come with your name on them and are not transferable, to avoid price fixing. I havent atually seen one though.

Michael Nystrom's picture

Without a link,

this is just a rumor.

Should we find out through direct experience? What will the frenzy be like in your city when Kid Rock comes to town. $20 tickets and $4 beer is going to cause pandemonium!

Tickets with your name on them - weird. And then guards will check your ticket against your ID at the door? How about an Iris Scan while they're at it?

This is totally a free market anomaly. Austrian economics mandates that artificial markets find equilibrium.

- - - - -

MichiganDan. When's he coming to your town?

An expensive mistake.

If scalpers know they cannot resell tickets, they will not purchase them, thereby leaving promoters, solely, to bear the risks of poor sales. This leads me to wonder what would happen if the first ten shows posted losses. Do they give up the scheme, thereafter -- imagine the PR disaster that would be?!

Whatever the case, it's going to cost him him millions and backfire in terms of marketing, when, either:

1. Tickets are unavailable as scalpers snap them up in pursuit of the huge markups possible or...

2. Concert-goers are treated as if at the airport: ID'd and searched.

As per his schedule, he is

As per his schedule, he is playing at 38 venues and the number of seats vary from 12000 to 25000 but are mostly around the 20000 mark.

As a rough approximation he will generate $15.2 million in ticket sales at the $20 price.

So his projected figures:

Total Gross: $15.2
Total Attendance: 760,000
Number of Shows: 38

For comparison: Top grossing tours in 2012

Total Gross: $46.8 million
Total Attendance: 490,165
Number of Shows: 99
Average price per ticket: $95

Total Gross: $47 million
Total Attendance: 371,777
Number of Shows: 31
Average price per ticket: $126

Total Gross: $54.4 million
Total Attendance: 522,296
Number of Shows: 46
Average price per ticket: $104

Total Gross: $96.5 million
Total Attendance: 1,085,382
Number of Shows: 23
Average price per ticket: $88

Total Gross: $124.9 million
Total Attendance: 1,111,099
Number of Shows: 65
Average price per ticket: $112

Total Gross: $147.3 million
Total Attendance: 1,811,787
Number of Shows: 67
Average price per ticket: $81

Total Gross: $147.3 million
Total Attendance: 1,374,482
Number of Shows: 183
Average price per ticket: $107

Total Gross: $186.5 million
Total Attendance: 1,680,042
Number of Shows: 72
Average price per ticket: $111

Total Gross: $199.4 million
Total Attendance: 2,165,925
Number of Shows: 72
Average price per ticket: $92

Total Gross: $228.4 million
Total Attendance: 1,635,176
Number of Shows: 72
Average price per ticket: $139

His ticket rates are an average of 5.25 times cheaper than the above acts, his revenue at the corrected market rate would have been $80.2 Million with an average ticket price of $105.

If he was doing this concert last year, he would have ended up 8th of the top grossing tours in that year, with the higher prices.

Assuming he got the same crowd with either ticket price he would be making a loss(read foregoing revenue) of $65 Million.

If he got 20% less audience due to the higher prices, he would still gross $67 Million, which would still mean a loss of $51.8 Million

If he got only half the audience then his losses would be $24.7 Million.

I grew up in Detroit. in the late 60's early 70's.

if I drew a line and asked you what happened to Detroit after Nixon made his move in 71.....

I suppose you would have to be from Detroit to understand....

Wait. You're telling me if I grab my guitar and go play...

...for a few hours on a stage in front of a bunch of people...

I can make twenty bucks?

Sounds good. I'm in.

Chris Indeedski!

Daily Paul cured my abibliophobia.