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Rand Paul Facebook Like Count - Looking Good!

Back on April 25, 2011, a bit more than a year prior to the nominations being made, I started a thread keeping track of Facebook Like Counts for the 2012 election called Facebook like counts - we have a lot of work to do. It's interesting to look back at that.

Back then, here were the relevant Like Counts:

Barack Obama: 19,543,556
Mitt Romney: 859,916
Ron Paul: 330,264

On May 21, 2012, the counts were this:
Barack Obama: 26,634,195
Mitt Romney: 1,753,094
Ron Paul: 966,370

And as the Like counts predicted, Romney won the GOP nomination, and Obama won the general election.

Today, May 6, 2013, it's a bit more than 3 years before the next nomination is made, but still... Rand Paul has over 900,000 likes. Better than any other likely candidate!. That's right, he's ahead of all the GOP contenders, and ahead of Hillary and Joe.

Here are the relevant counts.

Politician pages
Rand Paul: 902,770 likes
Joe Biden: 575,275 Likes
Hillary Clinton Government Official: 504,330 Likes
Marco Rubio: 483,160 likes
Chris Christie: 61,722 Likes
Ted Cruz: 2,768 Follows
Ted Cruz: ???,??? (found this 2nd/main? Cruz page on 5/31/13 with 154,610 likes)

2016 pages
Rand Paul 2016 : 47,250 likes
Hillary Clinton for President 2016: 26,721
Christie 2016: 2,412 Likes
Marco Rubio for president 2016: 2,071 Likes
Ted Cruz 2016: 517 Likes

Future update summaries will go below this line.

------------ ...Paul .......... Rubio .......Christie......... Cruz....... Clinton....... Biden
2013-05-06....902,770.....483,160.......61,722.........???,???.......504,330......575,275
2013-05-21....945,489.....488,696.......72,838.........???,???.......513,740......575,471
2013-05-31....970,524.....490,872.......74,792.........154,610......515,684......575,864
2013-06-07....994,904.....492,509.......75,956.........161,389......517,032......576,099
2013-06-10..1,002,610.....492,917......76,038.........162,072......517,403......576,227
2013-06-19..1,022,015.....492,031......76,052.........167,380......521,750......576,789
2013-06-25..1,034,418.....491,125......76,092.........178,693......358,134......577,013
2013-07-09..1,061,118.....489,474......76,097.........183,732......361,660......577,895
2013-07-14..1,068,689 ....488,908......76,120.........184,274......363,161......578,195
2013-07-26..1,094,730....488,144......76,095......187,860......366,676......578,882

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Remember that fb Likes can be purchased!

Since you're keeping such tight bookeeping, you may want to just post a graph of all the results instead of tediously listing all the numbers.

Just a note Palin

has 3.5 million, I consider her likely or I wouldn't count her out.

Rand is doing a good job with his likes

Rand still looking good but Paul Ryan could be a problem

In the last 12 days...
Rand is +26k, Cruz: +3k Clinton: +3k Biden +0.7k

Rubio is down AGAIN, and Christie is down a tiny amount.

I have not been tracking Paul Ryan like counts, but per Facebook he is a force to be reckoned with. 4,884,920 likes today, 4x what Rand has. Now at least we have a base line.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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In 2 weeks, Paul up 27k, Rubio down 2k, Cruz & Clinton up 3-4k

In the last 2 weeks, between 6/25 and 7/9, Paul gained almost 27k. Nobody else came close. Cruz went up 4k, Clinton a bit less, Rubio went DOWN again, this time by almost 2k (what is that about???), and Christie and Biden gained 5 and 800 respectively.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Paul and Cruz gain, Clinton plummets, Rubio goes down again too!

Paul went up the most again, by about 12k. Cruz went up too, by 11k. Wow!

And Rubio went down again, this time by almost 1,000.

But Hillary took a huge drop, from 521k to 358k! What's up with that? I'm presuming a FB glitch.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Paul gains 20k in 9 days; Rubio goes DOWN!!!

I've never seen like counts for a presidential candidate go DOWN, but that's what happened to Rubio in the last 9 days, who went from 492,917 DOWN by 900 to 492,031.

In the mean time Rand Paul picked up another 19,500, or 2156 per day average. Cruz picked up about 5k total for the 9 days, as did Hillary. Not much movement on the others.

The rate of increase is going to have to pick up significantly to get into the multi-millions, but this early it's looking great. Still, since he was picking up about 3k per day a few weeks ago, this is a bit worrisome...


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Ran Paul clears ONE MILLION Likes on Facebook

Rand picked up another 8k in the last 3 days while the others picked up a few hundred at most.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Another week, another HUGE jump for Rand Paul in Facebook likes

In the last week Rand Paul increased his Facebook likes by 24k. Cruz went up by a relatively impressive 7k; everyone else by about 2k.

So that's over 3k per day average growth for Rand, and closing in on that 1M pretty quickly...


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Rand Paul facebook URL changes

The original URL to the main Rand Paul page was www.facebook.com/RandPaul2010. That page is now gone, and has apparently been moved to www.facebook.com/RandPaul where the 2016 campaign used to be.

Update: here is the 2016 page, though it has only 45,035 likes right now:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Rand-Paul-2016


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Rand Paul continues march way ahead

In the last 10 days Rand went up from 945k to 970k; an average of 3500 new likes per day.

During the same period Rubio, Christie and Clinton each gained only about 2k, or 200 per day.

So Rand Paul is gaining likes at a rate that is almost 20 times faster than his competitors. Amazing.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Rand Paul Like Count clears 950k - less than 50k to get ONE MIL

Rand Paul's Like count on Facebook has cleared 950,000... less than 50,000 to go to hit ONE MILLION.

As of right now he is at 950,619 likes, which is 5,000 more than just two days ago. So at this rate he should hit one million within 10 days.

For perspective, his dad is at 1,122,950 likes. Will Son surpass Dad's count in 6-7 weeks?

Son: https://www.facebook.com/RandPaul2010?fref=ts
Dad: https://www.facebook.com/ronpaul?fref=ts


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
track

Rand Paul is ahead and growing the fastest

The first update still looks very good.

------------ ...Paul .......... Rubio .......Christie...... Cruz....... Clinton............ Biden
2013-05-06....902,770.....483,160.......61,722.........2,768.......504,330...... 575,275
2013-05-21....945,489.....488,696.......72,838.........5,120.......513,740 ......575,471

Note that Paul jumped by 43k. Christie and Clinton went up by 10k, +/- 1k, while the others were well under that.

This is a very promising trend.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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I don't want to discuss your

I don't want to discuss your conclusions but your methodology.

To predict in any sensible way that Obama was going to win, you would have to take into account that he had already been president for 4 years, thus boosting his numbers.

If you go and like an artist, suppose 'The Rolling Stones' it will show that 'x' friends of yours also like that band. If you go like the same page from a friend's account and suppose it says 'y' friends like the band too. Then if you and your friend have a lot of mutual friends, x and y will have similar values.

The same applies to Ron and Rand Paul. I would guess over 90% of the people would be common in their likes so that skews your statistics which until corrected become meaningless.

If you meant this as a superstitious thread, sorry for wasting your time =D

It's an indicator, that's all

Of course Obama's numbers were boosted by having been president for 4 years. But that gave him an actual/real advantage too. So it's reflected in the Facebook Like numbers.

Similarly, of course many of Ron Paul's supporters have shifted to Rand Paul, but that's in reality too, not just in Facebook Like counts. So it matters, and it's a big reason Rand Paul is likely to do well. Remember, his actual polling numbers are reflecting these Facebook Like counts too. He's polling much better than his father ever did.

The Facebook like count is a valid indicator of a candidate's popularity. It's not 100% accurate, of course. But it gives us an idea. It told us that we had a lot of work to do with Ron Paul, and we never get there. Not even close. And it's telling us that liberty has a great shot this time around with his son.

Anything can happen. But for right now we're looking good. Real good. Whether things get even better, or if they get worse, you'll see it reflected in Facebook Like counts. Mark my words. This post is staying here...


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Palin has 3.5 million plus Facebook likes

Her page s growing at a fairly fast click as well.

But Sarah has been backing Rand on just about everything

So what? She had 2.9M in 2011

Palin collected most of those years ago. She was at 2.9M in 2011, so since then she's only grown by 600k, despite her celebrity.

She's popular among Republicans, and this is reflected in Facebook like counts. But she's not a viable candidate, and she's not running. So what?


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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like counts matter because

like counts matter because why.........????

Like counts indicate popularity

Facebook like counts indicate somewhat accurately how relatively popular a given candidate is compared to rivals and potential rivals.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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With one phone call or email

With one phone call or email and some cash, my Facebook page would have 2 million likes.....

Does that mean I'm popular?

Do you believe Rand Paul is stacking the deck?

Of course that's possible, but unless you believe Rand Paul or any of the contenders is actually stacking the deck, what's the point?

In fact, it's kind of silly for anyone to risk ridicule by doing something like that simply to pump a number that is ultimately meaningless. If you were a candidate, would you do it?

It's like paying off the pollsters to make it look like you're ahead, only to lose in the ballot box... what's the point?


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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NO, I believe that since like

NO, I believe that since like counts are corruptible, they cant count toward anything.

But that's exactly why they're unlikely to be corrupted

Because they don't count toward anything, there is no point in corrupting Facebook like counts.

Thus, they're a reasonably good indicator.

I predict the winner of each party's nomination will be first or second in Facebook like counts among all respective party nomination contenders.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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FYI, fb sells "Likes" You can

FYI, fb sells "Likes"

You can purchase Like counts, and there are people who have done it.

What

Shocks me the most is Hilary even has that much. That is insane.

Why is it shocking?

She is immensely popular among Democrats. Many think she did a fabulous job as Sec of State and would be thrilled to see her as POTUS.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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Because

She is a lunatic but hey... "In an insane world, only the sane appear to be insane."

Thanks, that's encouraging!

Twitter:
@SenRandPaul 189,238 followers
@SenMarcoRubio 2,262 followers

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know Peace." - Jimi Hendrix

Also

Do you know that Romney had thousands of fake Facebook likes during the election? Yup.

I heard the rumor

Never saw the rumor substantiated.

In any case, Romney's relatively high popularity on Facebook compared to the other GOP candidates was reflected in the booth during the primary, and his relatively low popularity on Facebook compared to Obama was reflected in the general election voting.


"Know what you know, know what you don't know, and understand and appreciate the distinction."

Minarchism
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It is

Simple. All you have to do is use a bot to calculate his followers. Lots of them are proven to not even be real registered people.