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Skyscrapers and the Business Cycle

"The ability of the index to predict economic collapse is surprising. For example, the Panic of 1907 was presaged by the building of the Singer Building (completed in 1908) and the Metropolitan Life Building (completed in 1909). The skyscraper index also accurately predicted the Great Depression with the completion of 40 Wall Tower in 1929, the Chrysler Building in 1930, and the Empire State Building in 1931. There are, however, important exceptions in the ability of the index to predict, so the first question is: how good of a predictor is the skyscraper index?

Second, what is the nature of the relationship between skyscraper building and the business cycle? Surely, building the world's tallest building does not cause economic collapse, but just as clearly, there are economic linkages between construction booms and financial busts. What theoretical connections can be made between skyscraper building and business cycles? Andrew Lawrence noted overinvestment, monetary expansion, and speculation as possible foundations for the index, but did not explore these issues. With the destruction of the World Trade Towers and the increased threat of terrorism, the skyscraper index may have already lost its usefulness for future prediction,[1] but even if that were the case, the theoretical linkages between skyscraper building and business cycles may still have usefulness in improving our understanding of business cycles and the economic theory behind them."

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I believe from 2009 to 2011,

I believe from 2009 to 2011, the lunar cycles of the moon correlated 1:1 with the swings in the stock market.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:


Specific cuts; defense spending:

I was just in SF and about to

I was just in SF and about to go there again today. Everywhere you look in the financial district, there are new towers being built. There has to be 20-30 new tall buildings being built. They aren't empire state buildings, but there is no doubt a big boom in construction.

I think in a free market, tall buildings can be a sign of wealth in an area, although its not the only indicator. But I'm concerned because houses in the silicon valley or doubling in price, and there are endless construction projects.

All up and down CalTrains, the train that goes up and down the silicon valley, there are massive and I mean massive condo communities and giant apartment complexes being built. The crazy part is that they are getting high rents (2,000+) and are 95% filled up. There is more construction being built now than I remember before the last housing boom. I don't know if this is because of the Fed or because of other factors (a lot of the tech companies got huge tax breaks), but construction is booming at a scary rate.