If Only Krugman Were to Understand His Biggest MistakeSubmitted by Marc Clair on Mon, 08/19/2013 - 11:15
by Chris Rossini
Paul Krugman recently expressed to his readers what he believes to be his biggest mistakes:
“Again, we all make mistakes. However, my own biggest mistakes have come either on issues where my models offered no guidance, like the economic impact of information technology, or in cases where I disregarded my models and went with my gut, like my overestimation of the impact of the Bush deficit.”
Krugman’s biggest mistake is that he doesn’t understand his biggest mistake!
You see, Krugman views the economy as if it were a giant lab experiment. Economics, in his world, is treated like a physical science, such as chemistry. Turn a few knobs here, adjust a few metrics there, tweak some mathematical models elsewhere, and presto!
When Krugman makes a mistake (which is quite frequently) he falls back on blaming his “models,” or his “gut” for not trusting his models. The man always has an excuse.
Sadly, Krugman will most likely never understand his greatest mistake. His entire career is dependant on him at least never admitting it.