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Austrian economist, John Williams (Oct. 15)-Very Serious Trouble in this Next Year

Austrian economist, John Williams, was a guest on USA Watchdog, Oct. 15. Said the United States is in serious trouble the next year; weaker dollar and hyperinflation.


http://youtu.be/wF3kS0yx-dI

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John Williams thinks he can drive while looking in the

rear view mirror.

OK. Our debt is probably not ever going to get paid.

But as a net energy exporter America is quietly turning a corner.

It really irks me that once again the corrupt, money junkie, politicians are going to be spared by "free" enterprise.

The energy and natural resource production in America is once again doing what it has done many times over the last 100 years. It's creating a boom and providing exportable products.
It's bailing out the country!

Wheels coming off

He now says all ducks have been aligned for currency panic & wheels coming off this year.

My personal addition over his commentary: I think wheels will come off Japan ahead of the US, and will make US dollar artificially look strong before its eventual collapse. Japan collapsing in 2014 is lot more realistic. US dollar, I'm not so sure...the house of cards might be kept propped up till 2015.


http://youtu.be/dQt-FFDM_5k

Immoral funding of Military Industrial Complex by Federal Reserve and US taxation system must stop!!!! End illegal/unconstitutional wars! Preserve US currency!
http://facebook.com/NoPropagandaZone
http://twitter.com/the_chiefe71

Hurry! Keep shoveling!

Don't stop till we get there.

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul

Ben Bernanke

the ass with the shovel! LOL

Gold standard: because man can not be trusted to control his greed

not really feeling this guy

...he is to forgiving to the banks.

A personal view.

John Williams has been forecasting a hyperinflationary depression for about five years and he did pinpoint 2014 some time ago as the year of the next major event. However his own M3 charts show a contraction in M3 in 2010-2011 and if I remember correctly that indicates a contraction in the economy during 2013-2014.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

If this contraction is causing the Fed to increase their monetary stimulation then this may be where he is getting his hyperinflationary scenario. My understanding is that a hyperinflationary depression is stagflation writ large. This recalls the conditions in the 1970's when gold ran from $42 to $850 an ounce...a twentyfold increase. If we take the low of the current market as $252, again going from memory, than this would indicate a target of over $5000 for the price of gold.

However conditions are very different than in the 1970's and no two periods are ever the same. There are both powerful inflationary and deflationary forces at work and the Fed's actions are merely counteracting the deflationary forces, in my opinion. There is a huge amount of monetary destruction going on around the world and central banks are acting to replace the credit being lost. At least that is my understanding.

My own guess is that in due time the monetary system will change radically and that the present fiat regimes will fail causing all credit to dry up for a time. This is being prepared for I believe and the new monetary system that will be rolled out will replace the old one fairly seamlessly. There will be a short transition period and the present cash currencies will remain legal tender during that time. The international trade unit will be gold or gold based instead of the US dollar and an international bills market settled in gold or gold based units will be reinstated. National currencies will then be marked to this world trading unit and traded accordingly.

This means that gold will have to be revalued at a much higher level so holding gold is I believe a good way to offset any destructive effects that might occur. Keeping a reserve of cash is always a useful standby along with a store of non-perishable food. I do not believe we shall experience a social collapse of the dimensions feared by many but rather that the old monetary system will be completely eradicated root and branch and those associated with it will be much poorer as a result and have no say in the new system. This will undoubtedly mean some disruptive effects but this will soon pass as the new monetary system kicks into gear.

"Jesus answered them: 'Truly, truly, I say to you, everyone who commits sin is a slave to sin. The slave does not remain in the house forever; the son remains forever. So if the Son sets you free, you will be free indeed.'" (John 8:34-36)

So, you assure me your taxes will be paid? With interest?

Hold on while I print up your 2013 Federal Reserve Act promissory notes. Terms & conditions may apply.

Disclaimer: Mark Twain (1835-1910-To be continued) is unlicensed. His river pilot's license went delinquent in 1862. Caution advised. Daily Paul

Taxes are different in the UK.

.

"Jesus answered them: 'Truly, truly, I say to you, everyone who commits sin is a slave to sin. The slave does not remain in the house forever; the son remains forever. So if the Son sets you free, you will be free indeed.'" (John 8:34-36)

Government is not the answer....

we need to realize that in every are of life for every question.

Here is great video about how Monsanto could be stopped by the free market.

http://www.dailypaul.com/302807/how-free-markets-could-stop-...

www.SuccessCouncil.com
Protect your assets and profit from the greatest wealth transfer in history.

How much more can the American economy take?

People like John Williams seem to sound like broken records, by repeating the coming hyperinflation.

In over sixty years, I have never seen anything like what we are facing as a country. All it will take is China and Russia pushing us over the edge.

I think the two will collude together to create a new reserve currency, and America will crash and burn in our own dung hemp of debt.

We all have an opportunity to protect ourselves from coming disaster, by buying gold or silver.

Gold standard: because man can not be trusted to control his greed

I don't think it's in Chinas or Russias best interests

A crash of the USD and the following instability of the world economy would be no benefit to them. Their economies would suffer, not to mention the instabilities of the bordering countries. When the USSR went down the US spent billions trying to stabilize the situation. Remember the problem when the USSR crashed and the concern was rouge nuclear scientists and the loose nukes? I don't think they would shed a tear at our demise, but a soft crash is preferable to a hard crash.

So, why is the Chinese Government importing so much gold?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-13/chart-day-china-imp...

No one really knows how much gold China is sitting on, but I'll wager it's more than the FED has.

Let's not forget China is a Communist country and if the USA is of no value to them we will be dropped like a hot potato.

Gold standard: because man can not be trusted to control his greed

The answer to that is obvious, protection from inflation

The US is China's largest trading market, they don't want to loose their best customer, but they also don't want to be left holding devalued dollars either. The real concern China and the rest of the world has, is that if there is a social/governmental meltdown, who is going to wind up being in control of the military and the MIC?

Not quite the largest trading partner

but certainly the trading partner with the most baggage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_par...

Baggage: http://www.dailypaul.com/302912/headline-for-the-history-boo...

Seems we the USA is getting under the skin of those Chinese boys.

Gold standard: because man can not be trusted to control his greed

Yeah

They say 50% of the dollars are held out of the country and we these come flooding back boom .. but China and Russia still want to use them until they think they don't

Critics of the FRS

I have been hearing to prepare for hyperinflation for the last five years at least. There is no present danger of that happening. Some other things are going to have to happen first. I think John Williams alluded to those, but I don't think they will happen in the next year.

As long as the FED serves the banks before the government, I believe hyper inflation will remain a low risk. Japan has been in a similar situation as the U.S. for about 30 years and there has been no hyper-inflation there. Japan has had three decades of stagnation instead. They have a big old-age pension program there and some politicians are suggesting old people there need to die already.

U.S. default may take a form different from hyper-inflation. Some of the benefit programs will probably be restricted. The retirement age may be increased, or there may be means testing for participation.

As for the current money supply, M2 remains on a steady path upward. The current QE is going back to the Fed as member bank reserve deposits or is being exported to pay for the trade deficit. The current FED program will not produce much inflation.

There really is no "stimulus." What is happening is the Fed is buying bad bank debt in order to make it look like the banks are solvent. The banks are taking the money from the Fed and, instead of loaning it, are depositing it back at the Fed. This debt should be written off and the banks declared insolvent. This is what Japan has been avoiding for thirty years. It would not surprise me if the Fed played the same game for longer than that.

[F]orce can only settle questions of power, not of right. - Clyde N. Wilson

you must be prepared for

you must be prepared for both. I sit in the inflationary depression camp.

Weirami

Agree. Williams has been calling for hyperinflation pretty much every year. We are not Germany or Zimbabwe who had either an economy decimated by war or an economy with 80% unemployment.

Williams Hyperinflation calls over the last 6 years:

2008 Hyperinflation Special Report http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation

2009 Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression http://www.zerohedge.com/article/shadowstats-john-williams-p...

2010 Hyperinflation Will Start in the Next Couple Months Hyperinflation Will Start in the Next Couple Months

2011 Hyperinflation Special Report http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-re...

2012 Hyperinflation Special Report http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-spe...

and now 2013 talking about Hyperinflation in 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB4huOTkBwY

Maybe next year...maybe not.

But any talk of hyperinflation occurring soon is misguided.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

fireant's picture

I think you have a good grasp of the situation.

There is no excessive currency being printed; just digits sloshing around in the banking system.
Price inflation is coming from two sources at present; foreign imports and government.
While a sudden onslaught of inflation cannot be ruled out, the more likely scenario imo is the digital system, for any number of reasons, locks up, and there will be a huge demand for hard currency with short supply.
Bottom line for me is no one knows, so it's best to prepare for all possibilities.

Undo what Wilson did

digits sloshing around in the

digits sloshing around in the banking system are the same as currency in a vault. how could the digital system lock up? EMP? Virus? terrorism? in that type of a scenario, you better have some cash on hand along with anything that can be traded for other goods.

fireant's picture

All of the above plus by fiat, like Cyprus,

which is the likeliest imo.
And yes, digits can be considered the same as currency in a vault, as long as it stays in the vault until it is used to pay down debt. Once it gets into the system, there is a sea of difference between hard currency and digits. Ask the Cypriots what they would rather have had over the past year; digits in the bank, or euros and dollars.
My estimation is we will see such before the loss of reserve status and dollar crash. Though it is inevitable, there is no viable alternative to the dollar at present. But again, no one knows how events will play out. Best to cover many bases imo.

Undo what Wilson did

We will still see

We will still see hyperinflaiton if the currency has near-zero desirability, as it will take a lot more of them to get the same value.

Japan never was a reserve currency

that required all oil to be bought and sold using the dollar. Russia and China are working hard to change this. One or both the countries are going to declare their currency to be backed by gold. China will stop pegging it's currency to the dollar for trade advantage.

If one or both these things happen I can see gas going to $10 over night, then it's off to the races with hyperinflation.

After all when will the rest of the world get sick and tired of America exporting it's inflation to them? I would say we are very close now, with Obamacare a reality.

Gold standard: because man can not be trusted to control his greed

Some what agree

We can go back sometime and see the various economist, even Ron Paul, talk about the soon to be explosion of inflation. Where is it?

______
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty."

Excellent interview

Question, how can you have hyper inflation with such a high unemployment rate and excessive personal debt? Goods and services that won't sell because no one can afford them? This may get real ugly.
Thanks for posting this.

The demand will come from foreign reserves

China and Japan have over a trillion in US treasuries each. Once they give up on our currency their money will buy up everything they can (causing a massive rise in prices). After that, I think we'll have deflation. That's my understanding anyway. Would certainly like to hear the opinions of others.

you are 100% right

you nailed it!

That's an interesting perspective

As the import prices rise, due to the foreign countries rejection of the dollar, domestically produced products will be competitive. Maybe we will start making things in the US again?

The hyperinflation will occurs with all the thing you said

Because it will be a repudiation of the dollar and treasuries, the same or less supply of goods and services will be available but the dollars to purchase those supplies and services will be in such great supply that it will take a wheel barrel to bring the currency to the store.

In 1919 the Riechmark was 8 cent to the dollar (or 12.5 marks per dollar) when they bottomed out it was 16 trillion marks to the dollar, and then they rebounded to 4 trillion mark to the dollar.

Don’t think in terms of cost push inflation…..inflation is an increases in the supply of currency…period…..anything after that is the effects of inflation.

The riechmark is probably the best recent historic example of

a hyper inflated currency. I wish I knew more about the economy in Germany circa 1930s, I'm going to research it. What seems amazing is how did this destroyed economy and war torn country manage to come back in 15 years to lead the world, in science, technology, engineering, and almost dominate the world?