Could Ron Paul Get Third in Florida?
The latest Rasmussen poll in Florida has Ron Paul at 2%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 18%, McCain 27%, Romney 33%. I think they are way off base on this one as far as Ron Paul goes.
There are around 6000 Meetup members in Florida. So far, after NH, SC, and Michigan, the average Meetup factor has been around 15 votes per Meetup member. If this holds true, that would mean 90,000 votes. With a turnout in 2000 of just about 700,000, Ron Paul would have 13%.
Another projection using donors/capita and a couple of other metrics has Ron Paul getting 16% which is right in line with my projection. http://www.paulunteer.com/projects/projected-ron-paul-primar...
Getting third doesn't win any delegates but I would have to expect that the secondary headline would have to be "Rudy loses to Ron Paul again". Especially in Florida where Rudy has been campaigning forever and where Ron Paul hasn't really done much.
It sure would be nice to get some buzz before super Tuesday.





















Polls
MSM Polls = Psyops
fs
Why do you guys care about Florida?
I don't get it. Ron has 12% of the vote in Georgia and they have 72 delegates.
Florida has Paul at 2-4% and they only have 54 delegates.
So why in the world does anyone care about Florida when we should be concentrating on GEORGIA!
Ron is only 4 points behind McCain in Georgia.
Only Republicans vote
Ron Paul is not going to get the Cuban vote or the Hurricane vote in FL.
Also, no independents can vote in this election. Republicans only.
I think the Florida polls are right on the mark. I don't expect Ron to do well.
But that's not the issue. What we want is Giuliani and Huckabee to do very poorly so they drop out.
I want a three man race. One for the 10,000 year occupation of Iraq, One flip-flopper mormon and one Ron Paul.
did you factor in
Electronic voting machines? The election of 2000? I hope the Paul campaign disputes anything less than 10% out of florida.
http://killfiat.blogspot.com/
I see your point
regarding meetup numbers. I see that you've already taken into account the duplicate memberships. We do sure seem to have more support here in FL than 2%, so I sure hope you're right. Thanks for your good work.
--------
We don't know how to mind our own business
'Cause the whole worlds got to be just like us
Now we are fighting a war over there
No matter who's the winner
We can't pay the cost
-Steppenwolf 1969
'Cause there's a monster on the loose
I saw on CNN over the weekend
A man on the street interview concerning the the florida government insurance disaster relief hand out they want. they were asking this guy about Gooley and at the last second he blurts out "Maybe I'll just vote for Ron Paul" I could'nt believe they let it air.
I Saw That Too -- Great Huh!
Vote RON PAUL 2008
Vote RON PAUL 2008
Ya !
He was such a typical guy in a typical sudivision, and the way he said it...just like he only just found out the truth, maybe he's not alone and the polls aren't capturing that. Just a hopefull sign even if RP does finish last.
Should Ron Paul decide the outcome in FL?
The latest polls in FL have Romney and McCain running neck and neck at 31% each and Ron Paul at 7%
In Iowa Dennis Kucinich asked his supporters to caucus for Obama.
I am wondering if there would be any merit to Dr. Paul asking his supporters to vote for Romney, in order to prevent McCain from gaining a FL win and the momentum to win the nomination.
If Paul did what Kucinich did he would get a lot of press for turning the election.
Is this a good idea?
I know, I know none of the ideals of the other republicans measure up to Paul's, but it's interesting to think of the power RP has at the moment.
No
in iowa caucuses they have a 15% threshold for viability of a candidate. Kucinich said caucus for me, but if I end up not viable, then take Obama as your second choice.
Secondly, while no place besides first yields delegates, the higher the percentage will yield credibility.
Thirdly, we don't want to interfer with the voting process, and you could imagine all the clean up that would be required after all RP supporters vomited while casting their ballot for Romney.
Absolutely Not
Vote RON PAUL 2008
_____________
DENNIS KUCINICH gave no effort to that State at all and believed that his issues were closest to OBAMA's //
Which candidate is it you feel is closest to RON PAUL's issues?
I don't see any of them close at all to RON PAUL and that's why I'm so happy to see RON PAUL in the race -- RON PAUL is definitely America's ONLY hope.
Besides all that, after the process the MSM was quick to suggest that DENNIS KUCINICH had thrown in the towel; DENNIS KUCINICH had to explain himself in this regard, that he was only doing this as a one time effort because he had chosen to concentrate elsewhere. Well, look at where his tactics eventually did lead him -- Out of the entire race.
No, absolutely not. How can any of you start seeing it a wise move to start giving our support to another candidate? I see that as conceding the election. Is that what your intelligent approach is about, you're perhaps trying to juggle (play) with fire; you know what they have to say about that don't you -- eventually you get burned.
Vote RON PAUL 2008
the meetup fallacy...
While I appreciate your optimism, this projecting votes based on meetup numbers is a mistake. The problem is that people sign up for multiple meetups all over the country. This leads to false hope and frustrated supporters. You cannot base your numbers on meetup totals.
--------
We don't know how to mind our own business
'Cause the whole worlds got to be just like us
Now we are fighting a war over there
No matter who's the winner
We can't pay the cost
-Steppenwolf 1969
'Cause there's a monster on the loose
No Reason to Believe Florida is Different than the other states
I'm sure in Michigan, NH, and SC there were people who were also in multiple Meetup groups. So we have three data points from those states which can help us predict total votes in other states.
If there was something different about Florida Meetup people than the other states, then you would have a point.
By tomorrow we will have another data point to use for future elections.
It is true the more delegates Rudy takes from Mitt and McCain
The better.
Also this "prediction" stuff has not worked and I think we could consider dropping it all together. It sets people up for disappointment and that is counter productive.
Watch Dr. Paul's message on the campaign and lose what place he is going to come in. I tried it with Iowa and NH and it took me a week and a half to get over it.
Accentuate the positive and watch these fascist bozos knock each other off. Really, they have done a superb job with knocking off SIX other bozos let's see how it goes with the next four.
If you're hungry and the Lord gives you a ham sandwich? Eat it. I am going to stop setting my heart on steak.
We want it more than they do.
T
Unify
Last place
Don't be surprised if RP comes in last. Watch his last video, they are NOT spending money in FL. There is no reason. RP is working on the states that split there delegates, he is trying to get as many delegates as possible for brokered convention.
Think about how a strong speech at the National Convention could get him votes. If he sticks to current Party platform issues and reminds them of Reagan's issues, he could win over some delegates.
I just hope that the FL people are working on being delegates
florida
ron paul organized here early last year and his meetups have done a fabulous job getting the word out: billboards, meetups, articles, radio, canvassing, debates, blimp, boats, etc
this is florida, however, the home of crooked elections, so we will see...
i'll be conducting an exit poll tomorrow.
May be,
It depends on how many smart and informed people are there in Florida.
Understand BUT
Vote RON PAUL 2008
____________
I'm sure there are tons of smart people in Florida; and I'm sure there are tons of informed people in Florida.
-- But informed mainly by MSM.
And then there is the potential fraud and other related pressures hanging over the entire system. What does that do to being smart and informed?
Vote RON PAUL 2008
Rudy will lose (place third or fourth) and drop out....leaving 4
so that means that Dr. Paul will be fourth after Florida.
And, since Huckabee isn't runnng for President anymore, vice president will do, that leaves three. So, how will Paul finish in Florida. Well, after Florida Dr. Paul will be third.
Now let's get back to work, I've got a precinct caucus coming up on February 5th to win.
All together now, "Ron Paul Revolution, Legalize the Constitution"
I just love that slogan.
Best option for Dr. Paul
Is for Guilaninnni to win.
Why? Because then more people have the same amount of delegates and then it heads toward a brokerd convention which RP has a great chance at!!!!!
Reality, meet best outcome, best outcome meet reality...
Rudy is in free fall in Florida and it's becoming a race between Romney and McPain. Huck & Rudy will be out in the next week or so.
What Dr. Paul needs is strong finishes in Maine and a couple Feb 5 states. It sounds like he's doing well in Georgia. We're working hard in CO.
If you aren't in Florida then stop worrying about it and get back to work in your own state.
We need more precinct captains.
No
Florida is a closed primary and Paul has trouble with the base of the party. Sorry guys, the only question is, "distant last, or close last?"
"People should not be afraid of their governments; governments should be afraid of their people." - V for Vendetta
And Let Me Say -- You're Right Too
Vote RON PAUL 2008
____________
Florida was decided long ago. Any voting there is nothing more than going through the motions. No insult intended to the voters in Florida, the outstanding people that live there -- you can't help those things beyond your control and Florida seems to me (living far distant from that warm wonderful State of yours as already) long bought and paid for. I have this feeling it all comes down to who it is the powers truly in control (behind the curtain) want to let go to Florida -- they are the ones actually doing the controlling not We The People. Sad, huh.
http://www.geocities.com/reptoid_27/IlluminatiLogo2.jpg
Vote RON PAUL 2008
I realize your just posting your opinion but...
How does this article help anything? How does this reality check motivate people to canvass or to even go out and vote in the primary. Since by all your accounts it is useless? If you feel this way then fine, but don't you think it is hard enough with all we have to do day to day just to pay the bills and raise our families and then to get the motivation to canvas and sign wave or become precinct captains etc. I have a hard time understanding why people loyal to this movement constantly shoot down the efforts of average people. We are not impervious to this negativity and I find it difficult to persevere when every third post is doom and gloom predictions. It is impossible to determine the intent of these articles or their authors. It is demoralizing to have people who you are supposed to be locked arm and arm with in this fight against virtually everyone, the media, print, radio, internet, television, the GOP, and yet we can't even come to a site that is a gathering place for supposed like minded individuals to feed off each others motivation to keep going.
I don't care about the negative posts that I read personally, because I have made up my mind Ron Paul is it, period. He is the only person that is not connected to the establishment and whose principled integrity spans his entire political life according to his factual voting record. We don't have a choice to lay down and quit. This is it, the neo-con agenda is in full swing and they are one election away from total control. We don't have the luxury of waiting till next election because it will be too late. We have to forge onward and upward and we have to win this thing precinct by precinct it is the only way. We will never be given any assistance with the aforementioned traditional media or political establishment because Dr. Paul's message is the exact opposite of, and actually destroys their ability to maintain the stranglehold of power and their ability to force us through illegal taxation to even pay for our own enslavement. I can't understand why this is not a factual reality to everyone and continuing to hope for a sudden media turnaround from this policy is simply folly. We have to just accept that fact and do what we know we need to do which is to stick together. Just because the mainstream media and establishment GOP will not support our guy doesn't mean we can't beat them. Ron Paul has already had success in his home district 10 times against the establishment. We ARE beating them, and this is why they are really stepping up their agenda because of all the success we have had. They will continue to ignore his campaign, that is fine, but we can't continue to implode from the inside with this divide and conquer mentality because it doesn't in anyway motivate someone to volunteer their precious little time away from their family or job towards the revolution.
Just an experiment for anyone out there who cares to try. I will try to convince you that 80-90 percent of the people that you know right now, be it as workmates or personal friends have not spent a single hour researching on their own the decision they have made for their current candidate. Just ask em, ask anyone why, why they have decided to vote for whomever they have. You know it, I know it, they have done nothing on their own to develop a reasoned response for why they choose this one or that. Convincing these people is easy!! They are starving to understand the process and feel as though they know who the right candidate is. They just haven't spent and real time researching the positions of the candidates involved quite the same way we Ron Paul supporters have. We are the minority in America folks, we are people who have awoken from our slumber and it is incumbent upon us to assist the majority of our fellow Americans who have been indoctrinated into this slumber for more than a hundred years. It can be done and we are doing it with remarkable success but there are 300 million Americans and by the very nature of how we must go about this awakening process door to door and word of mouth is why it takes time. But the great thing about our method is that when we awaken one person they will never be asleep again and become an advocate of freedom and personal responsibility. The media has the advantage of reaching many people but the people they reach are easily swayed this way and that in their vain attempt to seem as though they know what they are talking about when it comes to issues and opinions of all the candidates. Just look at the so-called poll results, these still sleeping masses change their minds from one day to the next as to who they think is the best candidate for president. But talk to a Ron Paul person who has awoken from this slumber and he or she is steadfast in their conviction, because they have taken the time to understand where all the candidates true loyalty and motivations for becoming president really are.
Your's in liberty,
Stephen Dupont
Warmest Regards
Stephen Dupont
New Bedford, Massachusetts
Very Well Stated, STEPHEN DUPONT
Vote RON PAUL 2008
___________
I can see that I touched a nerve with my negative thoughts regarding Florida -- you're right it is my opinion. Perhaps the one State, no, there's a couple more that I also place in a similar category with Florida -- but for the sake of avoiding further negativity in this regard, I will not name them.
I really do feel bad that I caused you to off-load like that but perhaps it does a person good to do so, others are reading and others are surely being motivated by your excellent points made. I don't wish to argue against any of it -- RON PAUL is the best and the only hope our wonderful country has if we are to return to any semblence of the way we once were in the world. And I certainly don't mean to slip back into any negativity here by saying this but the 'fight' for 'right' may be a hard road ahead. That came out kinda easy, I hope, not good but easy on the nerves, I hope.
When the Governor stated up front his pick -- to me that was the writing on the wall. When a crook like GIULIANI would spend so much time rubbing elbows with his fellow 'snowbirds' from a place north of Florida (Hey, that's everywhere isn't it) -- well, again, things look a bit bleaker to me because of it. And then there is Florida's already tarnished reputation to consider thanks to GWB and crowd.
I understand that the RON PAUL movement has accomplished extremely very excellent results -- and the same must continue or all will surely be lost in the blink of an eye. Together this movement has accomplished perhaps more than any other candidate push I can recall -- and that means absolutely wonderful things. But we must win to be successful or it will be business as usual. We must have hope but we must also stand hard against what we know lurks in the shadows -- not pretend it's not there.
When I mention negative things it is not to depress -- it is to wake folks from that deep sleep. And I know that saying these things in our forum is perhaps the wrong place because I'm preaching to the choir here -- we all love and respect RON PAUL. But there just might be someone else stopping in and whose eye might also fall upon the same and help nudge them awake. This is a 'fight' a real fight with some nasty people that intend to win at all cost // and I'm not speaking of the decent RON PAUL people when I say this negative sounding comment -- it is geared towards waking those out there across this wonderful land that remain tricked, that remain asleep, that have not done their homework and discovered RON PAUL as our only true hope. I'm speaking of those 'gangsters' that would have us business as usual // the ones that would steal our election away from us -- those guys. No matter how hard any of us try, the $$ we give, the doors we knock upon, the people we reach -- we still have the bad guys to deal with and all the tools of their trade to over come (DIEBOLD machines being only one such tool).
Didn't mean to upset you so much. I'm on your side.
Thanks for the FLAG ;-)
Vote RON PAUL 2008
Note to Campaign: Keep your powder dry!
Every sign we put up and every door we knock on makes others spend, spend , spend.
Everytime I see a commercial and ads here in Florida by another campaign I know we are winning and they are spending to counter our efforts.
We will quickly force others to run out of money.
Note to campaign: Please do not spend 1 dime in Florida. We have such a great effort here that the other campaigns have to spend millions to keep up with us. Keep your powder dry!
Victory on Super Tuesday and beyond!
The Florida Ron Paul efforts are effective
I spoke with a relative yesterday who lives in FL. He is torn between Dr. Paul and Huck. We spoke at length. He only gets his info from mass media, no internet. He told me that in his neighborhood, all he sees are Ron Paul signs. There is even a huge billboard on the main highway. These things really work!!!
Secondly, he told me that he did not like RP supporters because they are boisterous and discourteous. Maybe he saw Hannity, maybe he saw Chelsea Clinton clip - didn't ask.
Just wanted to say that the RP people in FL have made an impact in spite of every odd against them and I thank them very much for their influence via the signs, on my dear relative.
LivingTheDream
Livingthedream, I understand your relatives fellings...
Have you ever played sports? have you ever played against a Randy Moss or Terrel Owens? They are the players everyone loves to hate, right.
People who don't like the boisterous Ron Paul supporters is because they are not one of us. But once they are explained all of Dr. Paul's positions and are welcomed into the fold they love the fact that we are boisterous, that we have conviction, that we are unwavering in our support of our candidate. Believe me I have been on both sides of that fence and I am sure many of us have too. Our boisterous nature is a positive for sure, we just need to do a better job of explaining to the detractors that ..... pssst you are always welcome to become one of us you know.
Precinct captains are the key to winning I am convinced of this fact.
Check out this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjoBXysIPcE
Warmest Regards
Stephen Dupont
New Bedford, Massachusetts
The guy is simply stating
The guy is simply stating reality as it has been conveyed to him. If his relative told him the shouting and rambunctiousness of RP supporters turns him off, you can believe it. Many people fear change and Ron represents a radical change from what the current norms are, even though they are so far removed from our country's original intent. We need to appeal to the timid, the weak, the uninformed, and the followers as well as the independent pro-Constitution go-getters!
..................
"The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists actually believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is chaotic..." —Alan Moore
a few points...
First, with Governor Crist announcing his endorsement of McCain to me is obviously political even with Crist stating No Deals were made to him for that endorsement it still appears to be politically motivated to come a couple days before Florida's Primary.
Secondly, as for the polling numbers go they have been proven to be inaccurate throughout this election on both sides, the dems and reps.
Thirdly, as somebody else has mentioned there is a major amendment regarding doubleing of the Homestead Exemtion (which should be voted NO on but that's another topic) so with that amendment which is being very well publicized by this Governor for us to vote Yes to without telling the People what will Truthfully happen to Florida by passing it will result in a larger than normal turnout.
----------------------------------------------------------------
"We, the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow men who pervert the Constitution." Abraham Lincoln