13 votes

Just Look: National Consumption: How Long Can This Keep Up?

L@@K at this... 25 YEARS stable.... now fading FAST! Printing will not get us out of this. Fuel should be 1/4 of it's price.. 66.8 million gallons per day in 2003 to 23.5 million now. About a 65% decline... no 'discretionary' driving anymore.. Work, Walmart, Home. People are BROKE. Tick, tock.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A1...



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donvino

Gas sales are almost 1/3rd of what they were 20 yrs. ago....

...So either there is rampant price fixing on gas at the pump (lower demand should = lower price) or it's just further evidence of the extreme devaluing of the dollar.

Probably both...

"If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." -- James Madison

Beautiful ...

Look at all that lost tax revenue! Price of gas should be climbing any second to make up for any shortfall in volume.

There's also the question

of how long we can continue to use fossil fuels and how much of the planet
we're willing to trash to keep doing so.

Anyway, the decline in gasoline consumption is offset somewhat by increased
diesel consumption. And decreased demand in the US and EU has been
more than offset by increased demand in China, India and Brazil etc.

Even if you try to externalize the environmental costs of extraction/refining
it is still, in general, getting more expensive to obtain fossil fuels and make
them usable. Big difference between getting easy to refine crude from a shallow
well on the outskirts of LA than high sulphur hard to refine stuff from the
bottom of the Atlantic.

A lot smarter to switch out to hydrogen and other technologies now - the
longer we wait, the harder it gets.

Perhaps you're not aware of

Perhaps you're not aware of the MASSIVE finding of oil under North Dakota and the GIANT oil discoveries in Australia! Russia's new finds are being traded exclusively with China. This all in the past decade.

There's WAY more oil out there than you can imagine.

If there's so much then would

If there's so much then would it be the cost of extracting all that oil which keeps the price of gas so high? Because usually massive supply results in lower prices, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

...

Supply is being controlled!!!

Supply is being controlled!!!

That shouldn't be news. The Middle-East alone can supply the entire world with oil many times over. Iraq, Saudi Arabia were and are only pumping 10% of their fields and even then they supply a huge percentage of the world's oil supply!

Sadaam Hussein started pumping more in the 90s in order pay all the fines levied on him by Bush Senior and Clinton after the Persian Gulf War. As a result prices did dip after the millenium until Bush Jr jumped into the game.

A lot of this has to do with the dollar being the petro dollar as there is no more gold backing since 1971. The dollar is indirectly or unofficially tied to oil.

Show your math

I want hard numbers. I don't care how optimistic of reserve estimates you use and I don't care how optimistic your estimates of consumption are... Just please pick any set of numbers and divide oil use by some unit of time to give some estimate of how long each/any/all of these reserves will extend the global peak of oil supply.

Then we'll talk about ongoing production and see if there's a peak in that as well.

Yikes, I don't know. I don't

Yikes, I don't know. I don't have that info.

I know about the enormous finds that occurred in the past decade--Australia, Russia, and USA (the midwest).

I know that the Mid-East countries are not "allowed" to pump ALL their fields. They work with the west to keep the petro-dollar stable. Great Hollywood movies characterize that...Syrianna(George Clooney flick). Even current events where Iran is unable to provide a pipe line to India. In spite of that, India is not allowed to pay Iran for oil with gold, lol...back to the petro dollar.

I don't have any hard numbers.

I believe the OP posted a condemning graph implying an economic downward spiral. Oil consumption dropping by 2/3 from 2004 levels!!! All this leads me to believe there is a huge glut or at least no incentive to pump at higher capacities.

You can't listen to BP or CNN

It's ok, most people don't research technical issues like they do liberty ones.

2.6 billion barrels of oil is roughly the average between the overly optimistic oil companies' / state estimates and the counter-info peeps). They range from 1.4 to 7.2 B.

Current daily production for them is around 700,000 bbl/day and 7.5 mbd for the US and 85 mbd for the planet. Current US consumption has dropped from 18 mbd to 16 mbd, so we import around 9 mbd now.

If ND produces 700,000 bpd for 10 years, that will total more than the 2.6 billion for the estimate. If they ramped it up to 2 mbpd like some want to see, then it lasts 3.5 years.

However, each well costs $11.5M and produces a max of 118 bpd. They are lasting 18-24 months before they drop under 15% or so, so we can just assume 2 years and they're done. 118 barrels for 2 years is 85,000 barrels per well lifetime. Dividing that into $11.5M means each barrel would have to cost $135 before transportation, refining or profit. Yes, it's a losing investment.

To make matters even worse, it takes more new wells each day to cover for production drop... at an accelerating rate. The well count increase of a few years ago used to yield an increase in total production. Now a higher rate of new wells/day yields a level production.

So, on a global scale, there are 2-3 billion barrels up there and the world now uses that much in 31 days. The math just doesn't support us ever being energy independent from this.

Here's a couple year old analysis that you might find interesting. It lays it out in pretty scary terms.

http://www.neogap.org/neogap/2013/02/20/oil-guru-destroys-al...

Your final concluding sentence is viewing the problem from the wrong side. Instead of production falling because consumption fell (so they could keep prices high), the consumption fell while production is falling. The only reason it hasn't resulted in soaring prices is that we've been able to lower our demand (bad economy - commuting is way down recently) into the elastic range. That means that when the economy recovers, demand will snap back up more than half of the reduction.

To picture how bad that could get, look at these numbers. Daily commuter gasoline tanks in just the US (the ones that get used) total 64 million gallons. It's often assumed they average being 5/8ths full or 3/8ths empty. Should a crisis occur that convinces people the price will definitely rise, they will all run to fill up. That's over 1.5 million barrels of oil EXTRA in one day. The entire global system only has .3-.5 million barrels of variable capacity built in and the US only has .7 million in emergency storage. What do you think will happen when everyone decides its too expensive to wait 2-4 days to stock up?

Wow, that's interesting. If

Wow, that's interesting. If what you say is correct, and production is coincidentally falling along with our economic collapse, then we will be in big trouble during the recovery.

...Or perhaps those extra supplies found in Australia and the midwest (USA) may fill in the gap? I dunno...

You stated we dropped from 18-->16mbd
but the OP's graph is much more drastic of a drop. What am I missing?

Lastly, trust me...I stopped watching CNN and my wonderful friends at British Petroleum loooooooong ago!

I'm seeing pro-collectivism

I'm seeing pro-collectivism and central planning in your post. A free market and intelligent individuals making self-interested decisions would solve problems caused by inefficient Washington edict.

That chart is very telling - and not to nitpick or anything...

but the chart shows thousands of gallons per day so for example 50,000 thousands would be 50 million gallons. You may want to edit that point in your post.

Thanks for the post.

Defeat the panda-industrial complex

I am dusk icon. anagram me.

thanx cc... OP corrected!

Staggering ain't it?

zerohedge thinks it is staggering also...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-gasoline-consum...

Defeat the panda-industrial complex

I am dusk icon. anagram me.

Hadn't seen that....

pretty much eliminates all 'other' explanations... only left with 1:
contraction.. look out!

That two year old article

marked the cliff like drop in 2012. Demand still trending downward.

www.eliomotors.com

84 miles per gallon!

Ever wonder how they price fix? How it is actually done?

Read it here:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/06/21/hershey-pays-4-mn-fi...

Guarantee that oil companies do it the exact same way.

There is nothing stopping the oil cartel from reducing supply artificially when demand drops. Such is capitalism. They are not bound by regulation, and they play it smart and secretive.

Small companies become big companies which turn into collusion monopolies with false choices.

Coke vs Pepsi. Obama vs Romney. Shell vs BP. Frito vs Lay. Left vs right.

people aren't driving as much

people aren't driving as much because they don't have as much money to spend because so many people are unemployed. so much for a recovery.

oops

oops

You think

maybe technology improving gas engines (auto/truck/marine/areo) from 8 miles per gallon to 40+ has anything to do with the chart?

That military uses less gas and more alternative sources?

Maybe the fact industry has fewer gas powered engines and many businesses left because of environmental laws?

This is a great Chart to prove the UN Agenda is working.
Onward to Global Corpoerate control! (ugh).

I do not think it is the UN

I do not think it is the UN agenda. I think it is the free market. People prefer to live in less polluted cities when given the choice. People prefer to save gas when given the choice. Therefore, companies/market will meet this demand.

Contrast this to China where there isn't free choice. Cities are polluted to an extreme.

Cheers

What free market?

A free market is not determined by what most people want, but rather, what the individual wants and is willing to pay.

Regulations and rules that FORCE people to buy only what the market is allowed to sell, and then fines and taxes to FORCE individuals to comply is not a free market.

Communist China is not a free Market.. it shows us what not to do.
Here in America, the INDIVIDUAL has rights (by the Bill of Rights and Constitution which our government has FAILED to protect) to make "Democracy" and the masses (UN) the enforcer, punishing the individual and eliminating the RIGHTS of the individual to self determination.

For example, an American trucker is FORCED to comply with rules and regulations on emissions (and much more), but the Mexican Trucker, who comes into the USA, was waived to comply to the rules. So American trucking industry lost to Mexican trucking companies who didn't need smog checks, didn't need to pay taxes, didn't need to comply. People NEED food, and to most, it didn't matter who brought the goods to the store.. just that the price was right. So American truckers LOST, homes, business, jobs.. while Mexican truckers bought homes in America and Mexico.

If you think that's what the majority of American actually wanted, I would not agree.

Let's see...

From: http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/In-Gear/2013/0406/Average-...

24.6 mpg is 0.2 mpg higher than January and February's revised figures, both the previous record holders. Rising average fuel economy is a consistent trend at the moment, with several months last year also setting records.

The most recent figures are 4.5 mpg higher than those of October 2007. That year's average was just 20.8 mpg, which rose to 23.5 mpg overall in 2012.

UMTRI also keeps data for what it calls the Eco-Driving Index (EDI). This figure considers the fuel used per distance driven and the frequency of driving, to calculate average monthly emissions generated by the individual U.S. driver.

This crept up to 0.83 in January (the data is a few months behind, and lower numbers are better) but overall the figures show a 17 percent improvement since records started in 2007.

That last stat (-17%) is what you're looking for for auto gas use.

From Wiki on military:
The Department of Defense uses an average of 12,600,000 US gallons of fuel per day. I assume that's recent. From other USAF docs, I found that they use 82% of the DOD fuel and plan to reduce that by 10% from '06 to '15. So, not much.

Not sure what you're hinting at with "fewer gas powered engines and many businesses left because of environmental laws?" If it's companies moving overseas, then I don't know how to search that stat.

In all, we've definitely reduced our gasoline demand since '08 but the question remains, was it forced by high prices (supply/demand/price) or were people too broke to afford it?

I'm looking

It was forced by a UN Agenda for sustainable development.

http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/254.pdf

I have no idea what you're talking about

Because you're not making a bit of sense.

Are you saying that Agenda 21 is forcing you to get better and better gas mileage? Or that they're forcing you to be broke and stay home more?

I'm asking because the document you linked is how one arm of that is pushing for more awareness of the oil and gas industries to stop trashing the environment. Are you saying that's a bad thing? Maybe you would rather have more oil spills, gas flares and toxic runoff for all of us so you can save 20 cents per gallon on your gas? Are you saying that any of this has something to do with US gas consumption dropping so dramatically in such a short time?

Please, tell us what you mean.

Yes

And Yes, the rules and regulations that cost individuals to comply stops production.

Yes, I'm saying that it is a bad thing because of HOW it is being FORCED on people.

Let me give you an extreme.. let's say to end pollution, cars are outlawed. You have the freedom to purchase any bike you like. Is this freedom to you? Because while it is an extreme, it's not that far from the truth. Buy a hybred and get tax breaks, etc. Keep your clunker and be fined to inabilty to drive it.

My 86 suzuki.. 24-27 MPG. Because it is an 86, in my county, I only have to smog it when I sell it. Smog check cost: $436.00, not including taxes. Even to give the car away, it will cost me (not the buyer /of course we can make a deal, but the check comes from me) $436.00,, only because of the YEAR. This is free market?

I am saying gas consumption has reduced because of cars that make better gas miliage, alternative energy, and Mexican trucking companies.. international fright. And also ethanol being added to gas.

Finally, growing up on military bases, as a kid I was appauled at WWII ruins that were never cleaned up. I became an activist in my teens.. 1976 I was even dubbed CONSERVATIONIST dreamgirl. I am a conservationist, not an environmentalist.

I believe humans are part of the world and I believe we have a duty to conserve and wisely use natural reasources. Environmentalists (UN) believe people are the problem, need to be regulated, fined, controlled). Do not be surprized to see the extreme become a reality.. I didn't drive until I was 30 and if I want to ruin my day, I get in my car, which still looks new because I rarely drive.

I care very much about the environment, and the free market would enable people to become the solution.. where the UN and it's "people are the problem" policy does not work for me, and I don't see it working for humanity.. least we forget John Galt. Free enegy is available.. why isn't that on the market? Look at how solar energy is being fined in Arizona as an example.

So to be clear, your point is

that "to a conservationist, who vehemently disagrees with taking care of the environment, using less gas in our cars is a horrible thing BECAUSE a certain group of people associated with the UN (who OBVIOUSLY MUST BE working to enslave us via Agenda 21) also wants to conserve gas. Is that about right?

As a conservationist AND environmentalist AND libertarian AND gearhead AND engineer AND... AND... AND..., I'm rather offended that you lump my into so many groups that I don't really fit into.

If we forget all this NWO, UN, AG21 crap (fine, it exists but don't dwell on it) and just start living local, sustainable and environmentally conscious lives in every aspect (and yes, I mean EVERY aspect) then I'm pretty sure those boogie-men will just disappear like an unscratched chicken-pox.

And if not, so what? Nothing we're ACTIVELY doing against them now is working, right?

Please

Please see my post below and watch the Carlin to vid to see exactly what I'm saying.. I'm not as gifted talented as Carlin (by a LONG shot).. He says it way better than me. I agree with Carlin 1 million percent