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Paul Craig Roberts: Moving very close to currency collapse SHTF



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Those who receive all the new money first are the only ones...

...who profit because once it goes out to the populace, inflation begins in earnest.

So once all the banks release all that free bailout money they got from the FED/Treasury, even their fake inflation indicies won't be able to hide it.

But for now, between the banks holding all that printed money, and the government's use of a fake inflation index (which excludes food and energy), they're able to hide the true inflation very effectively.

For the government and Federal Reserve's legion of immoral economists to EXCLUDE food and energy in the inflation index is CRIMINAL, because people can go without buying furniture or movie tickets or new cars or T.V.s etc for a long time.

But people can't go without food, heating, cooling, fuel, etc.

So years ago the bastards took that out of the index to hide their inflating ways and make the sheeples think that prices were stable.

I can't wait until their little hoax is exposed.

Every word out of Bernanke's mouth is a LIE. But Yellen will be even worse with the distraction of her being the 1st woman ever to head the central bank.

Nice trick Federal Reserve...Where is Andrew Jackson when we need him?

"We have allowed our nation to be over-taxed, over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The founders would be ashamed of us for what we are putting up with."
-Ron Paul

I've Never Been So Bored

...this PCRoberts guy got me to sleep real early....BORING.

....and John Williams? Thank God I'm having my coffee and it's the next day.....BORING...and nothing new here.

And some of you need to brush up on your grammar, punctuation and spelling....it's a real chore trying to decipher what the hell you are attempting to communicate here.

I GAVE THIS a -1
If this were youtube I'd thank you for wasting my time.
Incredulous that 25 people "enjoyed" this.

"Beyond the blackened skyline, beyond the smoky rain, dreams never turned to ashes up until.........
...Everything CHANGED !!

Paul Craig Roberts is a charlatan

THIS FREAKING GUY MAKES MY STOMACH TURN.

DO NOT BUY WHAT THIS GUY IS SHOVELING. He is no friend to Liberty. Just because he is saying what some of you on hear what to hear does not mean he is on the team of Liberty……this guy is a Statist and the history of his life is the proof. The only reason he now what an audience with the anti-federalist now is because it the only place he can sell his wares.

This is not to criticize The_chiefe71 for posting this and please do not think I am attacking you. You posted the John Williams interview and there is NO finer man. His attempt to keep the USG honest with his noble work on the business statistics and how the USG is manipulating the numbers to deceive, not only the American public, but foreign investors cannot be duplicated. I am a subscriber to ShadowStats and all I can say is if you get your information anywhere else you are not getting the truth.

There is another Regan cabinet member that I recently become more familiar with and respect and that is David Stockmen…..at least this guy hand the “nads” to tell it like it is. He resigned after criticizing the “Holy Grail” “ Stockman was quoted as referring to Reagan's tax act as: "I mean, Kemp-Roth [Reagan's 1981 tax cut] was always a Trojan horse to bring down the top rate.... It's kind of hard to sell 'trickle down.' So the supply-side formula was the only way to get a tax policy that was really 'trickle down.' Supply-side is 'trickle-down' theory." Of the budget process during his first year on the job, Stockman was quoted as saying: "None of us really understands what's going on with all these numbers."

Usually I will ignore someone's mannerism because we all have our little personality quarks and I don’t believe that is a reason to disregard what someone's is saying and I usually will at least listen attentively to someone when speaking. But this guy is a straight up charlatan! He little laughs through the interview just tell me he is hiding behind this characteristic. The man that gave me my first job told me a long time ago ….. “Never trust a man who acts like he got nothing to hide”. This guy is hiding something and I think that he thinks he is pulling a fast one over on people……remember this guy is a Statist.....plan and simple.

While listening to the interview I jotted down some notes……here are my thoughts of the interview.

• Regan ushered in financial deregulation …..Most people do not know that the biggest part of Fin Dereg were the repeal of disintermediation laws. This is what prevents securitization and we all know how that worked out……Regan did this and PCR was part of that process.
• Regan appointed Greenspan….you don’t think the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury at least had the Secretary of the Treasury ear on this one.
• The Financial Industry got out of hand after the Fannie and Freddie accounting scandal broke in 2004. There was a meeting that happened with bank regulators where they agreed to relax the leverage ratio on the banks if they would securitize more mortgages…..this was the parabolic move phase of the bubble….the USG knew it….the sanctioned it and then they covered it up…..with 700 billion TARP ( that they tells us every one paid back….but if it was paid back why didn’t they apply it to paying back what they borrowed …..because we are talking about the freaking USG……they NEVER PAID OFF THEIR DEBTS).
• At the 2:30 mark he starts talking about the “type of manipulation that is taking place today would have been impossible because would not happened….but it did happen by 1987 when after the crash the Regan Admin developed the Working Group on Financial Markets….now he wasn’t around for this, but there is no way he doesn’t know what these guys were up two and it happened long before 2008.
• At around the 3:22 market he starts talking about the banks and Fed printing. Look I am going to say this again…..and I hope everyone is listening after QE 1 & 2 …..the QE were done to FINANCE THE USG DEFICIT……NOT TO HELP THE BANKS. QE1&2 alleviated the bad assets from the banks’ balance sheets…….QE 3 was put in place basically because secondary mortgage market was on life support after the near death of Fannie and Freddie and the closing of the mortgage market in the private sector( banks were done securitizing mortgages). QE 4 was put in place because the banks didn’t have any room on their balance sheets because of all the declining assets were shrinking the shareholder equity and therefore causing their capital leverage ratio to explode right at the wrong time …..that why the Treasury MADE THE BANKS take the capital infusions, they had to shore up the balance sheet to keep them balance sheet solvent. PCR doesn’t have a clue as to what he is talking about and I can prove it. The Fed for the first time in their 100 year history began paying for excess reserves…..that what is fueling the stock market bubble and that’s what keeping the banks from lending and that what the FED wanted….to give the banks time to heal….that the FEDS job to look after the banks…..not to look after the tax payer or public…..and they like doing this job.
• I am jumping ahead to where he starts talking about Obamacare. All you need to know about Obamacare that before we had 50 State Insurance Commissioners that worked as the arbitrators between the public and the insurance companies……that system of protection ( and if there is a proper role of government this would be it) no longer exist. The USG is now JUDGE, JURY and EXECUTIONER……we have all just been screwed Royally.
We should revoke his Liberty card….and expel him from the movement…he is the Enemy

He's suddenly got quite a fan club here.

I'm wondering if that's from those of us who are old enough to be senile or young enough not to know.

Be brave, be brave, the Myan pilot needs no aeroplane.

I was 26 when Reagan became President.

Checkmark senile for me.

But not so senile to recognize that PCR is in a different class from Oliver North, John Poindexter, Regan, Weinberger, Meese, Baker, Bennet, and most the other jokers in that administration.

Free includes debt-free!

Not too be too smug

But it’s the difference between information and knowledge…..and dare I say the wisdom to know the difference.

Goldspan!!!

I am so mad at you.

Ok, so here I am thinking I know something about economics and here you go, discrediting the whole lot.

listen, you are definitely someone who I would aspire whose context i could understand.

maybe I am completely far gone.
Goldspan maybe I am totally way off base, is it real and how do I reach to it. As far as I can understand. All the fundamentals' are perfect. Why then do I want to treat it like a trader and not a long term investor. Dude. I need some insight. Give me a clue.

Séamusín

Sea

tell me what exactly you are mad about because I am confused by your comments.

everything pcr is saying, i find to be 100% accurate

What am I missing

Séamusín

Sea,

What happened man? You asked me what you might be missing and i answeredyou and......you dropped out of the conversation. Did I answer your questions?

you did. no sweat.

I hadn't seen the John Williams interview. I wanted to watch it before I said anything.

I have always questioned Paul Craig Roberts. But you know for me, a guy who didn't understand and couldn't care less during the Reagan years, I have to work a little harder to see these guys for their motivations. Stockman for example is another who I had to figure out what side of the line he stood on.

I didn't know if he was one of the good guys that Reagan hired initially to try and solve problems or one of the guys who compounded them. PCR seems spot on in his interviews but a good point that you raise is that he is notably absent from comment when it comes to where the problems started.

He treats it like it wasn't an inevitable outcome with roots in what he was a part of. I think.i did even notice that before. I do understand now that you were saying that what he said was not necessarily without substance, but not being completely honest either, probably to save his ego.

I am definitely going to watch the JW interview. Thanks for the clarity.

Séamusín

Sea, this video is the best example

of what I am talking about. The first five minutes describe exactly what I was saying, but then it incorporates how all this plays into the banking system. It describes how the system works and where the breakdowns occur, in the context of the “game” today. It does nothing to describe how we got here or the morality of the “game”…..just describes what game is being played.

This video was made during the Greece problem…..just ignore that.

The only thing I washed they had added was where the “money markets” fit into the picture….for some reason that was left out.

Debt service is where I have always said is where the SWHTF.
Check some of my past post esp this one call “Rollover risk”. This is where I have said the next crisis would erupt…..to be quite honest and with no disrespect to JW……I don’t see this happening in 2014. We may have a stock market that corrects and more normalization of interest rates (bonds sell off), but the USG will still be able to pay her bills, even with devalues dollars, but those dollars will still be worth more the rest of the world’s currencies as the rest of the world races to the bottom, what’s known as competitive devaluation. When the debt service reaches 500 billion plus I think is when we reach a tipping point….that would currently be 25% of tax revenue.

There is one point that I disagree with and it’s more mechanical then philosophical. When they describe QE…..his diagram has the lines going straight from the central banks to the government. Here in the US, the debt is auctioned to the primary dealers and then the central bank’s purchases them off the primary dealers that make the market in government bonds. This is what he is referring to as the secondary market…….there are 18 primary dealers are a conduit to the government.

Here’s the thing, Sea,

When listening to both interviews, JW…to draw a football analogy……JW is a well thought out offensive scheme and PCR is just drawing up plays. Really he just reviewing plays.

Where JW answers the question and follows a cognitive thought throughout his interview, PCR is just making random statement and never answers the question. I would think that PCR knows but doesn’t address the real issue. I would only gather that the reason he doesn’t is because he had a hand in constructing it and would have to explain himself, so he would rather pander to the masses that don’t know. He is a charlatan.

The question being…..if we are heading towards a currency crisis…..what is going to be the cause of that crisis? Not what will be the reason given by the USG, but what is the real reason. The seeds of this destruction were planted with the Petro Dollar Scheme under Nixon and then morphed into the “Strong Dollar Policy” under the Regan Administration.

You have to understand the international balance of payments system and the effect of a currency reserve position of not only this country but with the Rest of The World. This was the point that JW was making. The ROW has a net positive position of about 12 Trillion dollars to the US. The US has a very small currency reserve position to defend the dollar if a so called “run on the dollar occurred”. An analogy would be somewhat similar to a bank and on a gold standard. The whole idea of a gold standard is not to make sure the currency is backed by gold……it’s to control the fractional lending from getting out of hand. If you allow the USG to set the reserve requirement, then the banks will leverage up to that ratio. If the market was in charge the banks would never know what a good ratio would be and therefore they would probably be more prudent….especially if it’s their own money involved.

This goes all the way bank to…..well how far would you like me to go? Let’s say recent history….recent because I am as old as dirt….the 70’s. Before Nixon closed the gold window the gold exchanged standard worked something like the 100% reserve bank…..if a bank ( in this case the USG) was prudent and ran good policies there would be gold coming into the country. Gold coming in would increase the reserve position of the banking system and there would be plenty of money for lending. As lending increased ….consumption increases……people desired more foreign products and a trade deficit occurred. This is what is referred as being a debtor nation…..you consume more imports then you export (a creditor nation is when you export more then you import.) The reason for this terminology is that the balance of payment is similar to a cash flow statement…..it must balance at the end of the period (usually a quarter). So the balance of payments looks like this:

Current Account (this includes all trade merchandise) +/- Capital Account ( this is flow of funds) = Balance.

So if you have a Current Account deficit (more imports then exports) you must have a Capital Account Surplus (you must attract investor to invest in your country or you will have a drawdown of your international reserve position …..Basically defined as foreign currencies, Gold or in the case of other countries…. Dollars). The IMF provides Special Drawing Rights for countries that run into short term problems…..but that’s not a real way to solve a structural problem in your economy.

The real privilege of being the reserve currency to the world is…..you can always print more of the reserve. Now what has happened over the years is (and this is the most important point JW was making and PCR doesn’t address and I will link an article PCR wrote denouncing the people that were calling them out on this during the Regan Admin.) But the point JW made is that the ROW now has a 12 trillion Dollar net positive position to the US. That means the ROW on a net basis has more than 12 trillion dollars that if they wanted they could demand that we give them something for these dollars. Now it’s not really in dollars so to speak…it in dollars denominated assets like …..oh I don’t know …….. Treasury bonds, bills and notes…..and stocks. You can find this information is the quarterly “Z.1 Flow of Funds Report” issued by the Federal Reserve. But if they sell their dollar denominated assets ( which will crush our financial market…..stock could collapse…..bonds prices would collapse and interest rates would rocket up but the foreigner’s would still have dollars…..until they started selling dollars…….then the Fed and the Treasury are going to be helpless. With only about 150 billion….yes I said billion in foreign reserves to defend the dollar against what could be 12 trillion dollars……that’s barely 1%.......NOW YOU HAVE A CURRENCY CRISIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have been warning people about this since 1994, when I figured it out. It the reason I left the financial world……I couldn’t live with myself and put people’s lifesaving in the dollar….and people didn’t want to hear it….because we about to enter another bubble and people were sure it was different this time….people never learn.

http://old.nationalreview.com/reagan/roberts200406101413.asp

Go to search an article “Do Current Accounts Matter? By Antony P Meuller

http://mises.org/

Yeah he's a nice guy and here I'm gonna feed him his teeth

I do this only for benefit of you younger readers.

PCR has been pumping this stuff out almost since he left Reagan's treasury department. He says a lot of good stuff and he seems to care about people. He waxed eloquently against every war after those of the administration he participated in (Reagan was up to his hips in blood in Central and South America) and he's a competent historian.

And he's been telling the progressive left "there's nothing the people can do about it" for just as long. His consistent message over the years has been "there is nothing the people can do until politicians fix themselves". Nothing. Not one thing. Everything is useless, all protest, all discontent, nothing will work, nothing will have any effect until DC cleans up it's house. His message is clear: be as outraged as you want, there's nothing you can do but wait. Just sit there and take it.

As far as anticipating monetary collapse, you'd think he knows a thing or two as Reagan's Assistant Secretary of the Treasury but when do you see him talking about fiat currency EVER BEFORE THE PAST YEAR? When do you see him talking about a return to gold standard and sound money? NEVER. When did you see him reveal the nature of the Federal Reserve Bank and fractional lending? NEVER THAT'S WHEN.

So what's he doing now but jumping on this bandwagon and pretending to be relevant? Because that's one thing he never was. What it does add up to is he's a shill/gatekeeper. A misinformer and a distractor. He's never been effective so you don't need him. Side step him, walk right around him, he's not worth your time. And don't trust him.

This from one of your elders.

Be brave, be brave, the Myan pilot needs no aeroplane.

smudge...

While the first part (offering no solutions ever) only analysis...
may be true...
How (in your mind) does that make Dr. Roberts a 'gatekeeper'?
I fail to see why.
Disinfo is wrong info and backing a problem/reaction with a SOLUTION (crafted by 'them'.) That would be the function of a gatekeeper.
Right info WITHOUT a solution is simply analysis.
Why is Dr. Roberts NOT simply an analyst... like thousands of others?
The 'gatekeeper' tag seems over the top (to me.)

k,

by discouraging action in any direction but passive resistence and dependency on the system by his progressive left support base who were once known for taking over the streets and demanding change, you don't see this is gate keeping?

Be brave, be brave, the Myan pilot needs no aeroplane.

to me...

a 'passive' gatekeeper keeps calming and instilling confidence
in the status quo of the ruling tyranny..
or the status quo of something not working like false (conjured) or ineffectual dissent.
an 'active' gatekeeper comes off as 'siding' with or appealing to dissent, yet motivates and stimulates factions and fracturing within that same dissent.

I just don't see Dr. Robert's passivity as anything more than cynicism.

No problem, enjoy the statist

and his useless controlled outrage. Judging by those who have been negging me you are in company. I don't see why you waste your time, the guy has contributed nothing positive of note in decades.

Be brave, be brave, the Myan pilot needs no aeroplane.

smudge...

haven't, didn't neg you.. just dialoging w/ you..
as for the 'statist' v. anarchist that's a tough call..
that kind of spectrum makes everybody fall somewhere...
a bell curve with two 'extremes' on either end..
I mean Dr. Paul and Tom Woods fall in there somewhere
left or right of each other...
I dunno.. you're a smart guy and your antennae is twitching on this one.. mine just isn't... that's ok... carry on.

Awesome interview! I'm sure

Awesome interview!
I'm sure by the end of the day I'll be remembering the name of the interviewer. He's been having some decent discussions, especially with Dr. Roberts.
This is sound information. This is also how I see it. This is how I have seen it for many years, but coming from an insider with much more info, it confirms my belief.
The Democrats have been lying as bad as the Republicans. Why do we tolerate our government pulling these stunts? I mean look how Totalitarian they have gotten, forcing this upon us, all while lying to the world.

I wish them luck with that.

Be Your Own Media!!!

Best interview i have seen in a while

Awesome!

Séamusín

Rigging And Ransacking

This was a very clear summary of the economy. It should be shared with those who find it challenging to understand economic issues.

Debbie's picture

That was a most informative interview.

Thanks so much for posting. I really like how Greg Hunter interviews his guests; he is very respectful and hardly ever interrupts them, so they really have time to fully answer questions and convey their ideas and information. Also Greg asks very good questions.

Debbie

OMG, they're going to rob

the poor through Obamacare, and take family homes as reimbursement.

It's so bad Roberts is chuckling all the way through in some kind of comic disbelief.

The people who have made it to positions of authority have rigged the markets. He can't quite come to grips with the level of deceit, as he watches wealth leave the country. A former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury..

If he's just realizing the level of corruption, it's going to be a while, before all of this sinks in. What kind of reckoning is this going to be?

Greece-Cyprus

Greece-Cyprus, hell breaking loose.

I still keep saying, Japan will first implode before the US. There will be a short-term flight internationally into US Dollar (not out of it) at institutional level. But that will prove to be idiotic & everything fiat will get crushed under its own weight.

Immoral funding of Military Industrial Complex by Federal Reserve and US taxation system must stop!!!! End illegal/unconstitutional wars! Preserve US currency!
http://facebook.com/NoPropagandaZone
http://twitter.com/the_chiefe71

Also see: John Williams

Also see comments on following John Williams update "Wheels coming off" made few days ago:

http://www.dailypaul.com/302785/austrian-economist-john-will...


http://youtu.be/dQt-FFDM_5k

Immoral funding of Military Industrial Complex by Federal Reserve and US taxation system must stop!!!! End illegal/unconstitutional wars! Preserve US currency!
http://facebook.com/NoPropagandaZone
http://twitter.com/the_chiefe71

Debbie's picture

Thank you very much for posting this interview with John

Williams. It was very fascinating.

Debbie