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Wall Street adviser: Actual Unemployment is 37.2%, 'MISERY index' worst in 40 years (VIDEO)

BY PAUL BEDARD | JANUARY 21, 2014
http://washingtonexaminer.com/wall-street-advisor-actual-une...

Don't believe the happy talk coming out of the White House, Federal Reserve and Treasury Department when it comes to the real unemployment rate and the true “Misery Index.” Because, according to an influential Wall Street advisor, the figures are a fraud.

In a memo to clients provided to Secrets, David John Marotta calculates the actual unemployment rate of those not working at a sky-high 37.2 percent, not the 6.7 percent advertised by the Fed, and the Misery Index at over 14, not the 8 claimed by the government.

Marotta, who recently advised those worried about an imploding economy to get a gun, said that the government isn't being honest in how it calculates those out of the workforce or inflation, the two numbers used to get the Misery Index figure.

“The unemployment rate only describes people who are currently working or looking for work,” he said. That leaves out a ton more.

Read more: http://washingtonexaminer.com/wall-street-advisor-actual-une...



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How do we know it doesnt reflect retirees?

Isnt the baby boom generation retiring?

I'll say it one more time - Technological Unemployment

I know so many here refuse to agree, even to the point that they won't watch any info on it, but it's real and it's here now.

When productivity of corporations hasn't slowed one bit and profits are equally rising, but since '08, wages and employment is diving, what else can it be?

Here's a link showing how nearly every industry is losing jobs at an increasing accelerating rate to automation.

http://www.dailypaul.com/307371/will-work-for-food-movie-tec...

What it shows is that all jobs affected by a form of IT have recently seen a trend of faster automation than even could be predicted just 5 years ago. There is simply nothing else that explains what we're seeing.

Technology only obseletes

Technology only obseletes certain type of professions, but it frees so much labor that can do other tasks and the society as such would be more efficient.

You should never focus on one industry/company alone and conclude that technology is evil or detrimental to employment. The automation gained in one industry makes the produce of that industry cheaper and increased in supply. This will ultimately trickle down as price-benefit to the consumer of that industry's produce. This (indirectly) increases the purchasing power of each individual in the society and thereby increasing aggregate demand <- That is the real common-sense way of increasing aggregate demand, which is achieving efficiency improvements in economic activities, rather than the stupid keynesian method of inflating fiat.

If technological unemployment is a reality then man would've seen its impact ever since fire was harnessed or the wheel was invented. It is imperative that we don't fall into a luddite fallacy trap - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite_fallacy

I do understand that in the current socio-political situation with minimum-wage laws and over-regulation of employment laws, it just makes sense for most business to automate and not hire actual people. Fixing the disease (fiat USD, big govt.) should be bigger priority rather than complaining about the symptoms (automation etc.)

You didn't watch the video, did you?

If you had, you would have seen that automation is eliminating jobs in every industry except maybe two. It clearly shows examples of jobs being wiped out already in virtually every area that you can mention. In short, no job is safe.

The economics of it are indisputable. There is no reason other than upfront cost to continue paying workers $7-$20/hr when a robot or other machine will do it for under $3/hr (and falling rapidly).

This is the natural progression of technology along its entire history. As you stated very eloquently, for every job eliminated, there is a different job created. This is true. Most of the time. We have found new jobs in industry when farming died off. Then came production manufacturing, then business, then information, then computers and networking and now automation. And then it hit a brick wall. It changed when technology began to displace more jobs than it created. By building one computer, we can eliminate a dozen or a hundred jobs. With Automation, we don't even get the job of building the computer because THAT was automated too. Now all we get is 1/50th of a full-time-equivalent employee to maintain it (and that's outsourced).

Another way to look at this is that an increasing amount of what humans need and desire is being handled with no human labor needed. This isn't saying that there won't be new needs, but those needs will increasingly be satisfied with the likes of Twitter, which does Billions in business, provides a service to a hundred million?? and only employs 13 people. When that trend hits the masses (like it has in manufacturing automation), there will be many people who can't earn enough to buy their own subsistence and have no new industry to train for.

Fiat is the problem for money and finance. It does play a major role in personal debt and wages. It does not play a role in "Jobsolescence".

I had seen only the first 10

I had seen only the first 10 minutes of the video - 2hr video is too long, will see it later in the day.

Remember that the loss of jobs and shrinking economic activity are also clear symptoms of a recession. When the video producer cites employment stagnation since 2001 and the increased unemployment since 2009 - he forgots to include the dot-com bubble burst of 2001 and the subprime mortgage crash of 2008 and in that both cases the Govt. didn't allow the mal-investments to fail and the market to correct. They just did some quick-fix QE and allowed the mal-investments to continue.

From the initial minutes of the video and from what I've seen and understood in the economy, unemployment is a manifestation of the recession that we are in currently. Only difference is that, the current situation is dangerously resembling stagflation (inflation coupled with zero or negative economic growth) rather than a classic recession. To blame it on technology and automation would be hasty and ill-informed. There is simply no convincing data yet to put the unemployment blame on technology.

I agree

The first 10 minutes does indeed leave you with that impression. Especially since those bubbles popping has supported that thinking for more than a decade. The problem is, as the video explains later on, those events didn't slow down corporate productivity at all. It has ramped up steadily since way before these events and continues today.

How? By automating enough to cut labor costs and survive the popping. So, once you automate something, there's no reason to go back to paid labor. This is why the jobs are not coming back this time.

That video is about Resource based Economy

The information in the video was good but I can't believe that you didn't explicitly say that the conclusion/solution from the video for the future was a resource-based-economy or Fresco's venus project :(

Resource based economy is flawed and even impractical than Communism. The video offers absolutely no explanation if technological advances cause unemployment. Instead it takes debt based currency as the only way a market/price system will work and for this debt based currency to function, we need continuous spending to happen.

Instead of focusing on the bastardization of the modern money creation process and the strategies to defeat that evil, this video focuses to throw away the entire economic common-sense and advocates a future without a price-system and where everyone's needs are satisfied for free. Have you seen movies like 'The Matrix' or 'Equilibrium' - all is not rosy in a future where everything is perfect - scarcity is a fact and should be dealt with. There is no need to run away from scarcity and fantasize about a future where things are free :P

You make lots of assumptions

I really can't believe how so many supposedly open minded libertarians simply refuse to discuss something because it has one part they don't like. It's actually pretty sickening.

The video wasn't recommended for the last 2 minute pitch (in the credits practically) for zeitgeist. It was recommended because it makes the case that there are no jobs safe from being eliminated by technology. I assume you caught some of that since you said it had good information but then I have to wonder what you think can be done to deal with it. Literally, if there's only 5-15% of the current work available to provide abundance for all, how do you propose that the left out people earn a living? Whether the solution is or isn't the zeitgeist/venus project path, the fact remains that the jobs are leaving, permanently. That was the point of recommending the video. And even this video is dated because so many developments and advancements have been made that weren't included.

So, is this a topic that's still taboo here or can we be adult and discuss it?

And regarding RBE, it is not as flawed as you think, nor is it as simple or even just Jacque's system. There have been dozens of different implementations presented for a long time before he was born. Some of them are even outcroppings of the ultimate free-market capitalist system.

As I already noted, I can see

As I already noted, I can see that a great deal of information is present in the video - on how technology is contributing to rapid efficiency improvements (savings in time, cost, quality etc.) in almost all sectors of the economy.

However, it is also obvious that the video doesn't even attempt to prove and backup the claim that such technology is contributing to permanent loss of jobs. That piece is a big assumption made in the video (can you provide the exact points in the video where it is shown that technology leads to unemployment - a big collection of news clippings doesn't cut it, as news corporations are in the business of crafting public opinion rather than actual journalism) and that assumption is to setup the ending for the RBE solution.

We are open to discuss the merits and practicality of RBE, but it is mis-leading to put it at the end of a 2 hr long video. Please start a thread to discuss about RBE and how would individuals/society know what to produce without gauging value (price) of a good and how can value of a good be measured without first producing (supply) and consuming (demand) that good in the market.

Wow. How can people believe

Wow. How can people believe one word that ever comes out of a bureaucrat's or politician's mouth? Buy gold, silver and oil people. These fire sale prices can't last forever.

Wait until the next year or

Wait until the next year or two when it becomes cheaper.

what I am noticing . . .

besides stores leaving malls--

and besides more businesses closing . . .

is the increasing price of food.

it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--

Buy seed

Grow sprouts. IMO this is a dirt cheap high nutrient alternative to going without food.

Freedom is a byproduct of acceptance - judge not.

Oh, I think sprouting is a VERY good idea--

we have food stored. And I need to buy new sprouting seeds; they only store for so long.

But as long as fresh food is available, and as long as we can afford it, we will buy it.

I'm just watching--

it's hard to be awake; it's easier to dream--

Nonsense of a number intended

Nonsense of a number intended to attract attention and views.

The economy is doing quite well from many measures. Stock market. Unemployment. Financial wealth in private bank accounts. Savings. Retail consumption. Home ownership. Debt load.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

shakes head... giant face

shakes head... giant face palm..

The stock market

is not a measure of the economy.

There are more unemployed every month.

Cash in bank accounts does not come close to personal debt.

Just ended the worst holiday retail season in many years.

Fewer can afford to buy a home every month.

With what are you measuring?

According to who are there

According to who are there more unemployed every month? Even if it has gone up a little recently, the trend has been DOWNWARDS for the most part.

In 2013, you had, what, a 700 billion dollar increase in net financial wealth? Record exports, 4-year record low trade deficit. The retail season in 2013 was poor, but still better than 2009.

Home ownership is higher than its every been, I believe.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

.

That doesn't prove anything

That doesn't prove anything other than the workforce participation rate has dropped. What I see, is that since 2010, a drop from 64 to 63% in workforce participation, and a drop in unemployment from 10% to 7% in that same time.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

Do you believe

that the government number went from 10 to 7 because more people have jobs?

Yes. Not only does personal

Yes.

Not only does personal experience bear this out, but also the money. Spending is up, consumption is up, manufacturing is up. Debt is going up and a slower rate (though still high). Real estate prices are going up. Net financial wealth(+ savings) has gone way up, net real wealth has gone way up. Equity is doing really well.

Another great measure? Traffic. Traffic has gotten steadily worse since 2009, as more people go back to work and cars come on the streets. Public transport across the nation, facing bankruptcy, has seen a huge increase in ridership.

The trade deficit is the lowest its been in over a decade, healthcare spending as a % of GDP went down for the first time in well, history....

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

wow

Are you able to give evidence for any of these?

Start with the employment number.

So the unemployment number

So the unemployment number comes from the BLS (7%).

Spending/Consumption is up: Look at GDP

Manufacturing is up:
http://forum.termometropolitico.it/209730-il-declino-economi...

Debt is going up and a slower rate (though still high):
Only until the end of 2013, but here:
http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads...
Debt as a % of GDP going lower
Not a well labeled graph, but goes until 2013:
http://www.businessinsider.com/america-is-not-drowning-in-de...
Debt payments:
http://qz.com/56549/dow-punches-through-all-time-high-us-sto...

Real estate prices are going up:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/question-7-for-201...

Net financial wealth(+ savings) has gone way up:
http://www.parnassus.com/our-firm/highlight/115
Now of course it is in a downwards trend from 2012, as government across the nation engage in austerity and tax increases. But the overall growth of private sector financial wealth is undeniable, and it is still adding at a positive rate.

Net real wealth has gone way up:
http://qz.com/56549/dow-punches-through-all-time-high-us-sto...

Equity is doing really well:
Should be obvious.

Another great measure? Traffic. Traffic has gotten steadily worse since 2009, as more people go back to work and cars come on the streets. Public transport across the nation, facing bankruptcy, has seen a huge increase in ridership:
Cannot really prove this with a statistic or graph. You can see increased production of railroads, but that is industrial, not transportation.

The trade deficit is the lowest its been in over a decade:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/01/07/us-t...
Alright, so four-year-low, though I am correct in terms of GDP.

healthcare spending as a % of GDP went down for the first time in well, history:
http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2014/01/07/US-healthcare-rate...
Though the government report suspects it is mostly coincidental.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

From your first link:

"The 0.3 percent advance followed a 0.1 percent gain the prior month and exceeded the 0.2 percent median projection in a Bloomberg survey, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today in Washington. Total industrial production fell 0.1 percent as mining and utility use declined."

Do you actually read these before you post?

I am not talking about month

I am not talking about month to month gains, but year-to-year gains.

Are you seriously saying that a one-month marker proves that we are in this dire recession?

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

Are you seriously saying

that a few tiny increases make a recovery?

Keep on cheer leading.

And WhiteHouse calls ACA a

And WhiteHouse calls ACA a grand success and beneficial to the American people. Keep believing in the wonderland picture that the Federal Government paints. Also FYI, spending/consumption is not wealth at all. If the housing prices have inflated to QE and general inflation, then it is not growth but just eyewash.

Many of us know best to not believe anything that the Government claims.

So 1) Many of those numbers

So 1) Many of those numbers are not from a government source.

2) This ridiculous claim of 37% unemployment comes from a questionable analysis of, what, that is right, governmetn numbers.

Housing prices have risen well past general inflation.

It is not believing in anything that the government says. It is just not being stupid enough to take the opposite stance of anything the government says.

Spending/consumption relate to net financial wealthy; after all, at the end of the day, someone's spending is another one's savings (with government and foreign sector involvement, of course). But if you look at what one might call productivity, in that, how much financial wealth is the average American family earning, and how much can they buy with that financial wealth, that is, "real assets", well, that number is also going up...Americans can buy more today with their labor than they could at any other time in history....basically growth/inflation.

As the numerous graphs and figures I posted point out, net financial wealthy has boomed, wages have outpaced inflation, ie. the average Americna is gaining buying power year-by-year.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

Here are your home sales

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101377134

Sales down, prices up? Fewer folks able to buy a house.

Are you using inflation numbers from the Ministry of Truth?

".... net financial wealthy has boomed ...." uh, yeah, the wealthy are doing well. The rest of us, not so much.