10 votes

Market Crash or Healthy (Overdue) Correction?

Ok. So we've experienced a ridiculous rally since March 9, 2009 from '666' in the S&P. And now we're at the all time high territory near 1800.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5xG1k_D5lYA/UuOJoEmBXeI/AAAAAAAAFiE/hRZRi90zunc/s1600/Chart20140125044626.png
Now we are about to deal with a series of pullbacks, I believe. I'm looking for the ultimate pullback to 1540-1560 which was the thirteen year resistance level - broken for the first time ever back in May 2013.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3yeL0Hb_Lqc/UuOJnG0oB8I/AAAAAAAAFh8/HtMjt2-0tus/s1600/Chart20140125044606.png
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6fP2k4_gt7E/UuOJl8A1y_I/AAAAAAAAFh0/7D7pHE7t0f4/s1600/Chart20140125044547.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-20WuDYWQbFg/UuOJjktZpMI/AAAAAAAAFhs/x9enVCXsU5s/s1600/Chart20140125044531.png
Once we go down and confirm that new level of support I think we'll see a very long term bull market lasting 5 to 10 years.

CHART KEY: The above charts are all the S&P mini 500. Each giving a different perspective of market price history.
Each candle represents;
Daily chart = One day
Weekly chart = One week
Monthly chart = One month
Quarterly chart = One quarter

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RE: GALTSGULCH & Mayor Nystrom

My only strategy in day trading is knowing the "code". And that code is 'Buying and Selling' pressure. Period. With that information, I just get onboard and go along for the ride. Today's action grossed 60 points in the S&P emini. For $3,000 per contract gross profit. I don't know ANYBODY who pulls 60 points out of the S&P! NOBODY.
To enlarge, right click on chart. Left click on 'view image'. Then just click the magnifying glass.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VR1IE_ALRao/UvKDbLe-oPI/AAAAAAAAFiU/ZdAnknPuqwk/s1600/Chart20140205115958.png

I'd have to have the thing explained to me very slowly.

For some reason I have trouble assimilating info like this.

Be brave, be brave, the Myan pilot needs no aeroplane.

Thank you.

I would love to see more trading / technical analysis related posts here on the DP.

Michael Nystrom's picture

Bump and ditto

Thanks BT for your perspective.

A fall down to 1540 on the SPX should scare the living bejezus out of everyone. I hope you're right about it holding, and then the long term bull that follows.

Apple down 6% after releasing earnings today. Should add to the mayhem tomorrow, right up into the Fed meeting!

The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance. - Alan Watts

Michael, Today's daily chart Feb 5th

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fKpbsjK1_1E/UvKDddnnnMI/AAAAAAAAFic/caciP0S7Vm4/s1600/Chart20140205131826.png

The thing about technicals

The thing about technicals and charts....they mean absolutely NOTHING in fraudulent, massively manipulated markets. Likewise, fundamentals don't matter either.

For the past 20 years, I've spent most of my time thinking of ways to grow my business and generate additional income. Over the past few years though...that "switch" has been completely turned off. I've radically minimized my operations to a one man show. I've also radically minimized my cost of living. I'm even in the process of going 100% off grid and growing most of my own food.

I hope more people decide to go Galt.

“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy.”
― Ron Paul

John C: "The thing about

John C: "The thing about technicals and charts....they mean absolutely NOTHING in fraudulent, massively manipulated markets. Likewise, fundamentals don't matter either."

B.T. The thing about technicals and charts....they mean absolutely EVERYTHING in fraudulent, massively manipulated markets.
Technicals reveal the manipulation. I agree regarding 'fundamentals don't matter either'. They are the story that emerges after the moves take place.
>>>> I call it FORENSIC trading <<<<<

All you have to do is look at the 'Daily' chart above (top). I was ready to get short on Wednesday! - Then Thursday and Friday were perfect shorts... ALL DAY LONG.

I could not do that without the technical indicator. Never. No way.

In a manipulated market, the

In a manipulated market, the technicals will only reveal where the price action has been, not where it's going. We don't have free markets right now...haven't since 2009...and esp. since 2011.

I simply lack the desire to help generate more revenues for the war and spy machine.

“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy.”
― Ron Paul

'Splain to me then...

Why have I been able to accurately trade the correct direction every day since Mar 2006 when I discovered this indicator...

You say, "...the technicals will only reveal where the price action has been, not where it's going."

I just showed you in the Daily chart above what I did before - 24 hours before - it happened.

Maybe I misunderstood your taking the time to comment as an interest in this type of knowledge.

The world needs everyone. If all the plumbers quit and went into day trading because they could make an annual income in a day, we'd be screwed for plumbers.

Godspeed!

it would seem

since Mar 2006 when I discovered this indicator...
it would appear.. to a 'trained' eye...**wink,wink**
you like to see divergence. :)
cheers and happy trading
G.

Gusher or bubble

If the Fed keeps the pump primed and flowing, the market could produce a gusher of "gains." Question is: Will all that financial lubricant create wealth or is the stock market an illusion designed to make Americans feel rich?

Voodoo right?

"...an illusion designed to make Americans feel rich?

That's not what they tell me at the bank... or the BMW dealership... or the people I employ with the 'illusions'.

Roll the dice

Good luck at the casino.

If you look at a chart of the

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/01/20130116_SPX.jpg
If you look at a chart of the S&P 500 going back to the years leading up to 2000 you'll see a sideways channel that went from the 1990's to 2013.
The chart above is what some "expert" predicted stocks would do this year.
He predicted that the market would fail the test of the 1560 resistance level and crash back to the 1999 and 2009 lows.
He was wrong.
Price broke through the 1560 resistance level encountered in 2000 and 2007.
The market has gone another 200 points to 1800 and is getting ready to possibly take a break to pull back to the new support level above or around 1600.
The 'ceiling' has become the new 'floor'.
This is classic behavior for any stock or commodity. Price will hit a resistance level twice and on the third attempt will break above that level

These sideways channels are like winding a spring tighter and tighter. Eventually the spring will pop. In this case the pop is to the upside. Therefore U.S. equities have just broken above a new base. The all time highs of 2000 and 2007 have been broken and have become the new 'floor'.
Original post: Don't listen to the "experts" or doom and gloomers. The stock market is just beginning a new era.
http://www.dailypaul.com/306388/dont-listen-to-the-experts-o...

hiya BT...

Now come on... you know your statement:
"Price will hit a resistance level twice
and on the third attempt
will break above that level..."
is not a maxim.. it is (simply) a (possible) probability
which
those of us who trade intra-day see 'broken' regularly..
but not 'always'.. hence the repeated 'faith' or 'beliefs'..
just like
shooting stars, hammers, pennants, fibos etc..

I love trading... don't get me wrong..
but really.. all you can do is FOLLOW
and not try to LEAD the 'market'.

It's fun to try and 'know' what its going to do..
but its taken a LOT of effort to try and RID myself
of the temptation... it ALWAYS leads to trouble.
and that IS a maxim you can depend on.
Hugs & Cheers!
G.
P.S.-- thank God for 'stops' :)

Just to clarify GE,

I said; "This is classic behavior for any stock or commodity. Price will hit a resistance level twice and on the third attempt will break above that level".

Numero uno; I didn't actually say "always".
I don't trade by rules at all -
never -
nada.
Rules are for fools.

Number 2: It IS classic behavior.
That information, combined with accurate and precise indicators allowed me to predict the May 2013 break above resistance.
I traded through 1560 with nothing but confidence that the market was in new territory and going higher.
I was able to manage my trading right up into this last 5 weeks of sideways chop.

Hugs & Cheers To You Too!
B.T.
P.S.-- Never use stops. They give away your position. And smart money always comes looking for the big lots.

ha..

ok then...
don't cha just hate ranging???
... and I was SURE you were a 'position' trader anyway :)

Yes

Hate the range - But Love the Pops. (Thurs & Fri)

Can't put on any size in a squeeze - Don't want a jiggy wiggy to kill my piggies.

Strictly a pivot trader.

In today. Out today.