14 votes

When will the SHTF?

I've been waiting for the SHTHTF for about 30 years.

Here's my conclusion: Simple- it won't.

On the other hand....it already did many times and we all rode through it like every other problem in our lives.

Don't waste your money and time if you're looking for some cataclysmic event. The only ones that profit from the scare tactics (prepers) are those selling the products.

Total banking collapse? No chance of that so long as there are the means for pumping money into the system and pulling it out through taxation.

Military takeover and martial law? What a joke. Those things would only be needed if people protested in a large way against the system and that's not likely. People are just too lazy to rebel and oppose a system that can't be changed.

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The last really

big moment was 9/11. I do believe the mileage THEY are getting out of that event was/is endless...really endless. EVERYTHING done now gets the 'terror' tag and who can argue with that? (Well, those of us with half a brain argue with it but the general consensus is to acquiesce quietly with that meme.)

But there is an end-game, a goal and THEY will get there eventually.

The law cannot make a wicked person virtuous…God’s grace alone can accomplish such a thing.
Ron Paul - The Revolution

Setting a good example is a far better way to spread ideals than through force of arms. Ron Paul

tasmlab's picture

Boiling the frog

Instead of a moment where the SHTF, I could see just a gradual degradation in wealth and lifestyle that just sort of makes life crappier over the years.

Similar to when it became common for families to require two incomes to survive. A lot of people just got twice as poor when that happened in many ways (time-wise, family-wise) but everyone just sort of goes a long with it.

In our times it might be fuel and food becoming more and more expensive and we then don't realize that half of our income is going to these things and the quality is decreasing. More scarcity of goods. Smaller homes, etc.

Maybe a college education starts costing six figures of debt.

Just gradual poor when markets and technology should be increasing quality of life and increasing free time.

Not spread evenly either across neither category nor demographics.

This is all armchair speculation from a stranger on the Internet. I don't have any/much empirical evidence.

Currently consuming: Morehouse's "Better off free", FDR; Wii U; NEP Football

Good points. Which is worse? SHTF, or slow gradual enslavement?

We are currently well down that path of gradual enslavement/destruction of our freedom and prosperity.

I believe a good analogy is that we are floating down a river towards a waterfall.

The sound of the waterfall gets louder and louder, but it is taking quite a while and we have not yet gone over, or at least many of us have not noticed it yet. We do hear the noise getting louder and louder though.

At some point, however, the noise will stop getting louder and we will just go over the edge... In my opinion we have already gone over the waterfall, and we're just waiting to hit bottom.

Are you a POT or a PET - Person Embracing Tyranny?

Tell that to the Ukrainians who only a few weeks ago...

...had relative stability and peace.

It really hit the fan here in 1776.

It hit the fan big-time here again in 1861.

And it hits the fan regionally, and to individuals and families everyday.

Like you said people do 'just roll through it'. They will continue to do so. That is human history. That is nature.

But that doesn't mean many don't make it, and you shouldn't prepare.

Are you a POT or a PET - Person Embracing Tyranny?



Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws - Mayer Amschel Rothschild

When they come for your arms...S will HTF.

See what's taking place in Connecticut. If government uses force and kills people who don't comply or starts confiscating arms house by house. It's on.

Throughout your 30-years, has government ever used force to take your guns from law-abiding citizens? Yes, they've passed laws incrementally but have they taken action on the masses by force?

That's a scenario we have not seen in modern times.

That's when S will HTF.

Buying food and other supplies

Should be something that everyone does, whether there is a collapse or not really isn't important. Being able to become self sufficient should be taught to the young because back in the day everyone grew their own food, raised animals and didn't need a city or larger government to supply them with anything.

I see zero issues with supporting the long term food storage companies or other prepping supply stores because there are far worse things to buy with your money than survival gear.

As far as could it happen, yes I see it could happen but maybe not on a entire country level but in large cities in various states especially if they decide to remove the cash aide freebies. You will see people riot on day one or two IF their freebie card wasn't refilled.

It happened a couple months ago ( which they claim as an accident ) but looking at the pictures and videos of everyone leaving full carts of items. There were also people who were interviewed who stated they would riot if something like this ever happens again and it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

When you get things for free, you have zero investment in it whether financially or emotionally and it leads to the gimme gimme mentality which far too many Americans are getting accustomed to.

http://shelfsufficient.com - My site on getting my little family prepped for whatever might come our way.

http://growing-elite-marijuana.com - My site on growing marijuana

I agree with you, after a fashion.

I think the things people fear the most:
1.) Death of the Republic and the constitution
2.) Martial law
3.) the BEAST

All actually transpired either long ago ( number 1 ) or have been in place ( 2 & 3 ) for some time without people realizing it.

In the case of martial law, who needs it when the entire nation is in an electronic prison anyway?

Does anyone here actually think anyone could plan, and carry off a successful second American revolution consideting the present lack of security and privacy anywhere we go? I didn't think so, as we are all quite capable of cognitive reasoning here, one reason I respect this site as much as I do.

It's not that one isn't badly needed ( I expect the knock anytime now, lol ), it's that the elite have out thought us. They've covered their bases well, and have us by the short hairs. I've pondered, considered, contemplated, mulled and chewed upon this quandary for years now, and I can see only one way out, an EMP. This would level the playing field. But if I've though of it you can bet your sweet bippy that they have too, and have a contingency plan in place for it as well. So then what?

Additionally we have to battle " normalcy bias ", and cowards in craven clothing, amongst a host of other personality traits that will cave like playground chickens when push actually comes to shove. And I believe we are very close to seeing, or hearing rather of the " disappearances " of tens of thousands of our friends and neighbors.

I also think that the next five years will be the strangest, most morally bankrupt and viscous in all of recorded history. I also think we will very soon witness, thanks to the Internet and world wide media, a nation " calling fire down from the sky in the sight of men ".

That being said their is still light at the end of the tunnel, let's hope it's not a speeding freight train rushing headlong towards us. That light is Jesus Christ, get on board while you still yet have this short season in which to do so.


Drew, by the very grace of GOD through the blood of Christ Jesus.
"there shall come after us men whom shall garner great wealth using our system, and having done so shall seek to slam the door of prosperity behind them." George Washington

interesting. exchange,


Cyril's picture

SHTF in 2008.

SHTF in 2008.

Not the financial crisis - which is going to turn out as a pleasant joke, or appetizers, compared to what's ahead of us - "God knows when".

Yes, SHTF, when it became clear (to only a few, I assume) that the communist - of oh so convenient skin color ! - "they" had picked (years before) would start dwelling in the WH.... And no matter what.

His mission:

Part 1) continue and possibly finish the shoving of this genuine country into the grinder;

Part 2) if progress allows, redefine ... AMERIKA

The globalists spreadsheets worshipers won't sleep really well until they are DONE for good with the abortion of AMERICA.

I'm sorry. This is what I see.

"Cyril" pronounced "see real". I code stuff.


"To study and not think is a waste. To think and not study is dangerous." -- Confucius

Many black swans can take the

Many black swans can take the system down at any minute. The big 3 coming are...

oil, food, and water.

In the early 20th century, oil was pulled out the ground at a 100:1 ratio. Oil was almost bubbling out of the ground under it's own pressure. By the 60's- 70's, it was at 20:1. In the 90's, 10:1. Today, it's 3:1. It takes one barrel of oil to get 3 out of the ground. So, what happens in the near future when the ratio finally drops to 1:1...when it takes one barrel of oil to get one out of the ground? It's game over at that point. The peak oil deniers don't understand...there will continue be plenty oil, but will take as much...OR MORE...energy to get it out of the ground.

Think of it like this...if you trade your $1 to somebody for their $100, you'll take that trade all day long. $1 for $20, even $10...all is well. What happens when you have to start giving $2 to get their $1? That's where we're heading with oil.

Food and water - Conditions in California won't get any better anytime soon. The rivers and reservoirs have been drying up for decades. Places like Las Vegas and Los Angeles will be bone dry in the years ahead. The US relies heavily on California for the bulk of it's food. What happens when that food supply dries up?

Oil, food, and water...each of these are SERIOUS problems and each is intertwined with the other. We're a country with massive and exponentially growing oil, food and water needs...and dwindling resources. Do the math.

If you haven't taken the 'Crash Course', it's over 3 hours of must watch videos...


“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy.”
― Ron Paul

Any day now.

Did you not see the Boston practice run of martial law? Have you not heard about the 1929 stock market crash? What about the big war in 1861?
I do not recommend living in fear. I do recommend at least some prepping like stored food, self defense tools, and an exit strategy.

I have gone on several cruises

And not once did the ship sink!

Therefore, lifeboats are a scam! The only ones benefitting from life boats are the people selling them! Preparing for emergencies is stupid and only gullible do it!

It ain't going to hit the fan ...

until people with conviction decide to defend themselves from tyranny by whatever means necessary. It is kind of ironic when you think about it. Libertarians write novel length dissertations on self defense and pontificate about defending life or property but when it comes to actually organizing with others to exercise self defense against state tyranny ... they are nothing but hot air. It is actually worse than that because all of a sudden these intellectuals reject force to defend oneself from state trespasses. A blaring hypocrisy for sure. Their unwillingness to consider self defense makes them just as beholden to the very same state idol they rail about.

My brother told me the only

My brother told me the only prepping needed was guns and ammo, those allow you to get everything else that you need, and everything you don't need, like where someone has their gold and silver buried.

Why waste your time learning gardening skills when you could be learning how to water board someone for answers. Cue evil laughter "muah ha ha".

Tell your brother

That this is the view that brought us to our current condition, we will evolve past this view or die off.

The creation, production and fair exchange of values is the business of evolving consciousness, love and life.--Craig Johnson

Evolve past this or die off?

Evolve past this or die off? Baring the intervention of a non-human force, my bet is on the die off. Given humanities track record and the weapons available today, I would bet on that, but hope I was wrong, and act accordingly until proven right.

Denise B's picture

It would appear

that you have not spent a significant amount of time studying history. In what nation, since the beginning of recorded history, did the proverbial s*#t not hit the fan? Which empire in human history did not eventually crumble under the weight of inevitable human corruption and greed?

This country was formed with extremely careful forethought because our forefathers were well aware of history and the inevitable tyranny which results when human beings are given too much power over other human beings. They put in every conceivable check and balance that they could think of in an attempt to avert the inevitable collapse which is guaranteed when one group of individuals is given too much power over another group of individuals, and you don't need to look to hard to see how (even with all the careful planning) that has panned out. Our forefathers warned us future generations that even their carefully crafted system of checks and balances would not work without morality...i.e. a belief in God, because people that lack these things, for the most part, will not keep their oaths, nor will they care about unlawfully usurping power or harming others. 200+ years later we have schools that will fire teachers who even wear a cross or mention their beliefs in public, God is banned from the public square, a generation of completely biblically illiterate people and a government that is corrupt and rotten far beyond our forefathers worst imaginations.

Short of a miraculous awakening and divine intervention, the collapse is coming. Ignore the flashing red lights at your own peril.

There will be no ovewhelming eruption from a giant turd

Rather, we have been living under a persistent fecal mist that will continue.

“The welfare of the people in particular has always been the alibi of tyrants.” — Albert Camus

don't prep. Just don't come

don't prep. Just don't come knocking on my door when your kids are hungry and do not have nothing to eat. Don't come knocking on my door when the savages want to take what ever you have and you have no means to protect your love ones. Don't come knocking on my door when the water stops flowing from your pipes and you have nothing to drink. Amazes me that people do not heed warnings.

Proverbs 21:25 (NIV)

A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge,
but the simple keep going and suffer for it.

But if any provide not for his own, and specially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith, and is worse than an infidel.

1 Timothy 5:8 (KJV)

The prudent see danger and take refuge,
but the simple keep going and suffer for it. Proverbs 27:12

Good points all. SHTF in increments and yet - we do lose...

...more of our liberty each time.

But the sheeples are so indoctrinated now (from birth), that it looks like WE are the nutbags when we predict collapses.

But next time a 2008-style bankster collapse happens, the bailouts are going to have to be about double.

But the bankers and politicians WILL get their way again - they alays do because of the Golden Rule: "They who have the gold, make the rules."

The SHTF for real in 1913. Everything else pales in comparison and goes mostly un-noticed.

"We have allowed our nation to be over-taxed, over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The founders would be ashamed of us for what we are putting up with."
-Ron Paul


Everything since has just been splatter. You don't notice because you live in it. Step outside and look in. It hit the fan years before we came along.

When things change, they can

When things change, they can change quickly. Most of those of us who grew up during the Cold War never thought we'd see the downfall of the Soviet Union, but we did.

The US will suffer the same fate if the rest of the world loses confidence in the dollar, which if we lived in a rational world should have happened years ago. It might not happen for decades, and better judgement might even prevail and real money might be restored and put it off indefinitely, but it could happen at any time.

I must be willing to give up what I am in order to become what I will be. Albert Einstein

deacon's picture

Maybe people

have the same attitude you have,

" People are just too lazy to rebel and oppose a system that can't be changed."
with a comment like that,Is it a wonder why nothing for the better changes?
When half of all workers work for the fed gov,life as we knew is over...almost there
when half of all employable are not,but are on welfare,life as knew is done
So,just who will be paying taxes,when half are unemployed?
Military takeover or martial law? let me see..cops wearing and using military equipment,including,assault vehicles,and full auto weapons,military grade riot gear(bullet proof,of course) is this not a form of both,from your comment?

If we deny truth before your very eyes,then the rest of what we have to say,is of little consequence

Depends on what you mean by SHTF

Personally the USA is already Crap. The economy is terrible; a depression since 2003 (www.shadowstats.com) just goes to show how bad things really are. The dollar (and most currencies) are pretty much horrible. Jobs pay less than they did and they are hard to come by. Unemployment around in the double digits is simply pathetic.

And this is just the economic side of things. What about the personal freedoms...I don't even know where to start. I am scared to travel to the USA. I used to come back to the good ol' USA and feel like I was safe again. Now it is just the opposite. And the worse is that it isn't slowing down.

I hate to say it, but this is SHTF. Can it get worse, probably and it very well might. But this is bad enough.

My husband

agrees with your summation of the situation.

"We can see with our eyes, hear with our ears and feel with our touch, but we understand with our hearts."


A preist from a few years ago, during his homily says, "Those of you who think the world is coming to an end (There was some May 25th thing going around some Christian communities) bring all your gold and valuables to the rectory and leave them with me."

I don't know of any who took him up on his offer.

"A Viennese Walk Down Wall Street" by Mark Skousen

I'm only half way through this book, but so far he does an awesome job of explaining markets through the eyes of an Austrian economist. He himself is an Austrian economist and notes that it is inherently a pessimistic view of markets. He goes on to say that enterprises and markets would be better without central banks and extensive regulations, but that does not mean they do not produce real wealth. He states that there is money to be made in both the bull and bear markets and that an Austrian should be best equipped to identify each.

I'm not a bible quoting guy, but he references Matthew 24-30 as a great analogy.

He put another parable before them, saying, “The kingdom of heaven may be compared to a man who sowed good seed in his field, but while his men were sleeping, his enemy came and sowed weeds among the wheat and went away. So when the plants came up and bore grain, then the weeds appeared also. And the servants of the master of the house came and said to him, ‘Master, did you not sow good seed in your field? How then does it have weeds?’ He said to them, ‘An enemy has done this.’ So the servants said to him, ‘Then do you want us to go and gather them?’ But he said, ‘No, lest in gathering the weeds you root up the wheat along with them. Let both grow together until the harvest, and at harvest time I will tell the reapers, Gather the weeds first and bind them in bundles to be burned, but gather the wheat into my barn.’”

Curious question

To OP: have you seen public/civil/governmental circumstances improve, or deteriorate over the past 30 years? If the latter, can it go on indefinitely?

What's disappointing is that my imagination tells me how much better things could be, if the public's lawful prerogatives were recognized (ie. opting out of imposed inflation, abolishing mandates etc).

In any case and ultimately, I'd have to disagree that nothing can change, despite how difficult the politics of it may seem

While I don't think a nation

While I don't think a nation wide SHTF will likely happen, it is a very real possibility that your personal SHTF situation can happen at any time. A good example of this for me was when the water table dropped last summer and our old well ran dry until they could blow it out which took about 10 days. I had to make sure to have extra water and be able to find a way to have clean dishes and make food etc which was a huge pain.

Luckily I could just to to a neighbor and a store for water but if a regional disaster like a hurricane etc hits you better have some kind of plan in place.

Preppers are not waiting for that world changing cataclysmic event or Marshall law, there is plenty of other instances of chaos that can end up in your life that you should be ready for.

We all share this eternally evolving present moment- The past and future only exist as inconsequential mental fabrications.