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The Certainty Trap: This book is bid .68 at $18.45 asked.

The book in question is Marijuana Reconsidered, with (quite a good) essay in it by Carl Sagan, on getting high.

If you have a copy, Amazon will buy it from you (the bid) for .68 (gift card). They will even pay the shipping. But the cheapest used copy (at the time of this writing) is $18.45. Look at that original hardcover for $34.00.

Speaking of which, I have an original hardcover of Harry Browne's How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World. It is well loved, with copious underlining, in big thick red pen throughout. Someone really loved this book!

In particular, Chapter 14: The Certainty Trap.

I have no idea who owned this book before. But she loved Chapter 14. The title is circled in fat red marker. The Certainty Trap. The corner of the page is not bent, but it is colored red. And the first three paragraphs, are also underlined in red, and next the paragraphs, a vertical line with the word, GOOD! next to it.

The Certainty Trap is the urge to act as if your information were totally certain. You're in the trap if you make decisions without realizing the uncertainty of your assumption and the risk that goes with that.

It's a normal urge to want to believe that one has the final answers to things. Certainty is a more comfortable feeling than uncertainty.

Unfortunately, a feeling of absolute certainty is usually unrealistic. At any given time, you have at your disposal only a small fraction of the information you would need to make a smart decision with complete foresight.

- - -

A wide spread like the one on the book Marijuana Reconsidered leads to inherent uncertainty. The final price could end up anywhere in between.

And that final price is the ultimate reality.

Is there even a Kindle version?



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I believe Tony Robbins called it the human paradox...

We want to make decisions based on good information but we also desire to express our free will by acting on what we know is right, information be damned.

Humans NEED certainty AND uncertainty, hence the paradox.

Pandacentricism will be our downfall.

Michael Nystrom's picture

Yes, it is a friction thing, I believe

The friction creates progress. It creates drive. Little waves of it, and tides of it.

And so then what? Then what are you supposed to do with the paradox?

The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance. - Alan Watts

It comes down to realizing that change is inevitable,uncertainty

is inevitable, and the choice to either react or respond to inevitable change is our choice to make.

Pandacentricism will be our downfall.

'All decisions are made with incomplete information'

Everyone acts based upon the best information available to them at the time.

Pandacentricism will be our downfall.

Michael Nystrom's picture

This information alone

should make regret completely impossible.

The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance. - Alan Watts