"No, Rand Paul isn't the GOP presidential front runner"Submitted by RandWatcher on Wed, 04/09/2014 - 14:58
"I would completely discount the polls right now," UCLA professor Lynn Vavreck told me. "It's too early. Nobody knows who's officially in the race and who isn't."
Consider this: not one Republican hopeful has managed to amass 25 percent support in any poll conducted so far. The small swings in the polls are interesting trivia, but they're occurring among a tiny population of potential voters — and, worse, a population that is unusual in both ideology and enthusiasm. The bulk of people just aren't paying attention yet. They need to weigh in before the media begins crowning frontrunners based on polling.
At this point, more important than the polls is what political scientists call "the invisible primary." This is the process during which party leaders, insiders, and donors decide which candidate to support.