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Lindsey Graham is Going Down! (Mega-Update from the Grassroots)

Good morning Daily Paul, I'm here to give everybody an update on how the liberty movement is doing against Lindsey Graham in South Carolina.

LATEST POLLS

Lindsey Graham needs over 50% of the vote to win since South Carolina is a runoff state. If he gets less than 50%, the top two vote-getters will then face off in a head to head election two weeks later. Now Winthrop released its April polling among South Carolina residents recently, and the majority of South Carolinians are still saying they're tired of Graham. 42.8% of all respondents approve of Graham and only 39.6% of registered voters approve of Graham. Multiple Republican Party County Chapters throughout the state have also censured Graham, including Graham's home county!

However outsiders are led to believe Lindsey Graham is coasting to victory. Many probably have seen a report making itself through the media outlets recently, talking about how Graham has successfully navigated through his challengers and is now going to win. This report was mysteriously published almost everywhere, including the front page of Yahoo! News. I have it on good authority that the article most likely got its legs from the Graham campaign. It was obviously fake to any grassroots supporter in South Carolina that may have read it. Considering Graham's approval ratings are suffering, he's being censured in many counties throughout the state, and that Graham isn't winning local straw polls.

BRIEF MOMENT IN HISTORY

In 2012, a large field of candidates ran against Establishment pick David Dewhurst for the Texas Senate seat; Texas was also a runoff state. Dewhurst was not able to get over 50% of the vote, he came up short with 45% of the vote. So who came in second? Ted Cruz with 34% of the vote. In the runoff Cruz easily defeated Dewhurst.

APPLIED TO SOUTH CAROLINA

So why is this relevant? According to the polls, Graham is performing worse than Dewhurst did in Texas. Graham can't even get support from 40% of registered voters in South Carolina. This means that it is very likely Graham is going into a runoff with one of his challengers. And if Graham goes into a runoff, it's very likely he isn't going to make it out.

LEE BRIGHT IS THE REAL FRONT RUNNER

Even better news is that challenger Lee Bright is a strong ally to the liberty movement. He endorsed Ron Paul in the South Carolina 2012 primary and Ron Paul endorsed Bright for his re-election later that year. Bright even did an interview for the Daily Paul! On top of being a liberty lover, he's winning the straw polls. Bright just recently won the Charleston GOP straw poll, which is home to another one of the challengers. Making it clear that Bright is going to be the runoff challenger to Graham.


http://youtu.be/16_qBCcYG0k

SUPPORT LIBERTY

Even if you don't live in South Carolina, you can still help the state out. Bright just recently unveiled a new TV ad that just body slams Lindsey Graham and Bright needs the funding to run it statewide. Graham has a war chest of over $8 million dollars, so the grassroots must come together! There's two goals: get Graham under 50% (which is being done) and make sure the top challenger with the most votes is Lee Bright. I would encourage any South Carolinian to get involved in this race and help Lee Bright. If you don't have time or don't live in South Carolina, a donation to put this anti-Lindsey Graham ad on TV would go a very long way.


http://youtu.be/H1g57OohNkI

Here's Brights website: www.brightforsenate.com

I should also add: Bright has been endorsed by the National Republican Liberty Caucus, Gun Owners of America, Rep. Steve Stockman, and Rep. Thomas Massie.

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Oh yeah, Go Lee Bright!

Big Bump for Liberty!

If the Liberty movement can't

If the Liberty movement can't at least get this lunatic out of office, then we've got issues, or South Carolina is worse than I suspect.

Big figures like this are incredibly problematic

For example, here in Utah we got Orrin Hatch well below the 50% threshold required to force a primary, yet a primary wasn't held, and Hatch still reigns.

Freedom in our lifetime! - fiol.us

South Carolina has open primaries, yes?

It is very possible Graham could use his connections with Obama, etc., to bus in democrats to vote for Obama administration ally, Lindsey Graham.

What can be done to counter this?

PEOPLE OPPOSING TYRANNY - Real Grass Roots!
Are you a POT or a PET - Person Embracing Tyranny?

I have ran into a few that

I have ran into a few that have been concerned about the open primary system. The thing is though, you can only participate in one. So if a Dem were to vote in the GOP primary, they can't vote in the Dem primary. The Dems also supposedly think they have a "shot" at Governor this year. And apparently of the Dem candidates, there's one the Establishment really wants, so they'll need Dems to turn out and vote in the Dem primary.

So I don't believe it's a concern.

Just got word that the

Just got word that the campaign has raised over $23,000 for the ad to be placed on TV since it was released.

Looking forward to seeing it!

...

PEOPLE OPPOSING TYRANNY - Real Grass Roots!
Are you a POT or a PET - Person Embracing Tyranny?

Jan Helfeld's picture

See and use my Lindsey Graham interview on DP.

See and use my Lindsey Graham interview on DP.

Jan Helfeld

Considering his manly style

If he's going down, who's going up? :)

If in Texas, in 2012, Dewhurst had 45% of the vote and Cruz had

34% of the vote then 79% of the vote was spoken for by the top two candidates. And 21% was up for grabs.

Dewhurst had to make up 6% (51-45) to put him over the top, and Cruz had to make up 17% (51-34).

So the percentage of the up-for-grabs voters Cruz would have to win over in the runoff would be 17/(6+17) or 17/23 or 74%. That means Cruz had to win 74% of the voters who were up-for-grabs, to win 51% altogether and take the nomination.

If currently Graham has 48% and Bright has 9% (we will assume Bright is in second place) then Graham only has to make up 3% (51-48) to put him over the top, and Bright has to make up 42% (51-9).

So the percentage of the up-for-grabs voters Bright would have to win over in the runoff would be 42/(3+42) or 42/45 or 93.33% That means that Bright would have to win 93.33% of the voters who are up for grabs to win 51% altogether and take the nomination.

And its practically impossible for a guy polling at 9% to pick up 93.33% of the up-for-grab voters.

Bright is going to have more

Bright is going to have more than 9% of the vote on Election Day. Graham is also going to have less than 48% on Election Day.

If graham doesn't avoid a runoff, he's historically screwed. In elections where all the challengers are complete anti-incumbent challengers, and the incumbent doesn't get 50% , historically the incumbent gets even less of the vote in the runoff election. If Graham goes into the runoff it's over, as there's not one challenger Graham would pull votes from. It's also more likely all the anti-Graham votes will vote a 2nd time and Graham's voters are less likely to turn out a 2nd time.

I WISH what you were saying is true, But kindly show me one

election where the incumbent gets less than 50% and then gets even less in the run off against ONE opponent.

You have 8 thumbs up. I wish I could join those people because I WISH that what you were saying made sense.

But it doesn't.

I strongly suspect that Graham will not get 50% of the vote in the primary and that there will be a run off 2 weeks later. But all of his opponents are polling so low.

CERTAINLY his remaining opponent will get a much better result in the run off. If Bright gets 9% in the primary, he will CERTAINLY get 25-35% (maybe 40%) in the run off.

But Graham will get the win.

Sorry.

I wish I was wrong, but statistics and probability say otherwise.

Not every election fits

Not every election fits neatly into a statistical mold. Especially this very unique Senate election.

Lindsey Graham has really riled up the grassroots in SC to a point of "anybody but Lindsey" type attitude. Sure we can theoretically say if Bright gets 20% than he will have to win over 80% of the other voters. But this type of statistics fails, in the sense that the model is assuming each voter is like-minded.

Over 40% of the votes cast for Graham challengers will be from "lose Lindsey" voters. Bright would not have to win those people over. Almost all of them will return a second time to vote against Graham. The runoff challenger will only have to persuade a small percentage of voters to turn out. Which will be helped by the arrival of many outside conservative and libertarian forces.

Nothing would make me happier than Lindsey Graham's defeat but

the fact is that he is polling near 48% and his closest competitor among the many is around 9%

That's a huge difference from the Ted Cruz situation where Cruz had something like 34%. In that situation the top two vote getters were very close.

If Graham faces a guy with 9% popularity that guy is going to have to get virtually 100% of every vote cast for any anti-Graham candidate in the run off.

If even 6% of those who vote for an opposition candidate in the first election, switch and vote for Graham in the run off, Graham wins the primary. And the likelihood of the second place finisher getting 94% of the votes up for grabs is very remote.

Sadly, the chances of Graham winning the nomination are very good.

In the general election Graham faces a Democrat and a Libertarian. Might have a better chance of defeating him then statistically, but not with the Libertarian.

How can that a-hole be

How can that a-hole be polling around 48%? I don't get it.

$6.2 million in Graham's reelection campaign. Compared to

around $300,000 for his best competitor.

Graham has already spent more than all his competitors combined, I think (if memory serves me correctly) twice over.

Money buys elections.

Graham's approval ratings as

Graham's approval ratings as of last month are below 40% for registered voters. Approval ratings are almost always closely correlated to votes cast for the individual.

I guarantee Graham gets under 45%. If I had to guess under the current situations:

Graham - 44%
Bright - 19%
Mace - 10%
Connor - 10%
Bowers - 8%
Cash - 8%
Other - 1%

In a runoff near 100% of Mace, Connor, and Cash voters would return to vote for Bright. Graham could possibly steal a few of Bowers' voters. Graham also has to worry about his voters returning for a 2nd time. The majority of his voting base is 65+ and older. He will probably see a significant drop-off in who turns out in the runoff.

The people that back Bright,

The people that back Bright, Mace, and Cash REALLY hate Graham. They will vote against Graham in the runoff.

Also if there's a runoff, you're going to see people like FreedomWorks, Sarah Palin, and Ron Paul and others flock to SC or the next 2 weeks if Graham goes to a runoff.

I agree that people backing Bright, Mace and Cash REALLY hate

Graham. Hell 'I" HATE Graham.

But even if the outcome you predict is true and Graham gets 44% and Bright gets 19%, Bright would have to get 82% (I used the same formula as in my post above), of the unspoken for vote to win.

Graham will need just 18% of that vote.

Other? How many people are on that ballot vs. Graham?

I sure hope I'm wrong but, that's a classic sign of how they flip votes towards their anointed one. I think exit polling is essential in a situation like that. Either our people on the ground and/or contact local media to do exit polls.

“It is the food which you furnish to your mind that determines the whole character of your life.”
―Emmet Fox

CRUSH HIM! My dad donated to Lee Bight's campaign after...

...asking my advice about it.

He always asks me about a candidate now before donating, and 95% of them I tell him not to bother.

"We have allowed our nation to be over-taxed, over-regulated, and overrun by bureaucrats. The founders would be ashamed of us for what we are putting up with."
-Ron Paul

I really do hate that

I really do hate that POS......

I live near the boarder of South Carolina (Wilmington, N.C.)

So I'll see what I can do.

Jeremy

Who owns the voting machines

Who owns the voting machines in SC? (Black boxes)

SYCTL the Spanish vote tabulating company aka Vampire Squid

see here: http://www.dailypaul.com/comment/2312268

and if you just feel like breaking your brain, see here:

Guess What? SC Primary Results in Question! (2012)
http://www.dailypaul.com/214415/guess-what-sc-primary-result...

Freedom is not: doing everything you want to.
Freedom is: not having to do what you don't want to do.
~ Joyce Meyer

Ha! I knew it!

I knew Lindsey likes to go down. She's a bad girl!

“With laws shall our land be built up, but with lawlessness laid waste.”
-Njal Thorgeirsson

!

We need a ticker and start donating!!!!Someone please make a ticker lets send some money!!!!

Greg Brannon just lost, but we cant loose again...

DONATE, CAMPAIGN, VOTE! LEE BRIGHT!

Definitely

Definitely.

Lee Bright has a lot better shot against Graham. Even though he doesn't have a Rand endorsement, Graham needs to be under 50% unlike how Tillis only needed 40%. Graham's approval is also way down.

It may be a lot to ask but...

Can someone set up a moneybomb ticker for this, how much does he need to run this ad statewide? I'm going to donate what I can $25 or $50, but I love the ticker action! Is it moneybomb time?

Enonesoch