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Shadowstats: The future is here today. "We are on the brink of disaster"

Dollar on the Brink of Disaster-John Williams
By Greg Hunter’s

Economist John Williams has a dire prediction for the U.S. dollar. Williams says, “I don’t see what will save it at this point. . . . Now we are to the point that the dollar has been ignored for years. The federal deficit has been ignored for years. . . . That’s what we are on the brink of disaster with, and that is what has to be addressed now, and that’s not happening.”

Williams also contends, “The way I see it, the dollar could go to zero in terms of its purchasing power. You don’t want to have your assets in U.S. dollars.”

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Yea, the dollar will crash,

Yea, the dollar will crash, but it will still be used inside the US. I would picture more of a large shortage of anything imported and prices that rise for imported stuff. Interestingly, it would likely create jobs as those things produced overseas would now need to be produced here and we would see basically a massive correction. in reality it should be cheaper to produce closer to your market but that hasnt been the case.

To climb the mountain, you must believe you can.

This is pretty simple stuff

And is no more complicated than a good old fashion “run on the bank” or in this case run on a central bank.

What JW stated about the 8:30 mark is exactly that……..he is not debating the commodity prices or relative value to other currencies…….he talking about 16 trillion dollar denominated assets being sold and the ones holding those dollars now wanting something in return….something other than dollars. The US treasury has about 150 billion……yes billion in foreign reserves and what ever gold they have to defend against this run. There is no telling when it will happen……or even why it will happen…..all I know is IT WILL HAPPEN….

This is exactly what happened at the turn of the 20th century….except it was the Bank of England and the pound.

"Before we can ever ask how things might go wrong; we must first explain how they could ever go right"


Debbie's picture

Thanks carpavel.

I really enjoyed this interview. It's good to get the truth.


Remember Zimbabwe ...

It was the best place to invest ... the Market soared ... but after it was all done your entire portfolio bought you 6 eggs and a chunk of cheese.

... all I know is the Graft and criminality has become cannibalistic and for those of us with few assets need to focus on prepping and self sufficiency ... the best way to do battle against this madness is to refuse to participate in the system ... in other words live better on less.

Patriot News
Stand up For your Civil Rights


World's reserve currency

My economics professor next

My economics professor next door regularly states the ideas we have been talking about forever, with the caveat, "I can tell what's going to happen but I can't tell you when." He knows that inflation will finally catch up with Federal Government but also knows that since they are printing the money there's no way to actually predict when it will happen. He'll say," It could be next year or it could be in five years."

The end...(the Fed Murders itself)....or...the Beginning?

.. ?


"Take hold of the future or the future will take hold of you." -- Patrick Dixon

Not to be obstreperous but

But I spent two hours in a private client briefing today, Monday.

The company analysts who have been accurate for many years had no sense of impending doom.

They have been playing in the corrupt traffic running between criminal high speed counter parties like UBS, Barclays, Credit Suisse, and others -- and producing strong results every year for their clients.

I've been involved with them since 2004. I have no complaints.
It's like living in a parallel universe listening to doom and gloomers (who have bullet proof historical evidence) and those who manage to navigate the economy and the markets successfully.

Michael Nystrom's picture

BT - What did they say in 2007/08?

Did they see that one coming, or not?

So you're sticking to your guns then - smooth sailing. I can't find that post you made eariler - the one about the S&P just pausing before another blast off. Do you have it handy?

I try to take as much in as I can. Williams will no doubt be right, eventually. I still think the risk of deflation is higher, and deflation will come before hyperinflation. It wouldn't surprise me either if the economy just kept "growing," albeit leaving more and more of the middle class behind.

They said that there was too much euphoria for the market to

move higher in May 2007. They were right.
In the May 2009 briefing I attended @ the William Penn Hotel Pittsburgh, they said the rebound from the March low would be almost a "mirror image" to the '07 high - '09 low. They were right.
I wasn't paying attention in '07 when they warned of a correction. I had just seen massive gains from '04 - '07.

I paid very close attention in May '09 when they said "mirror image". I'll never forget that lunch. I don't even know if I believed them. I wanted to believe. -- My trading experience told me sharp moves are often subject to snap backs - equal and opposite etc.

So here we are. They are saying that the hated rally will continue. They didn't say we would have a sell off this spring summer for sure. But they did say in the back half of the year the markets will be up a lot.
I am prepared to correct from the 1900 level in the mini S&P. My account was converted to cash in April.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
It's time to protect profits and capital: We are in correction mode

That thread you mentioned;
Don't listen to the "experts" or doom and gloomers. The stock market is just beginning a new era.
This is unbelievable Michael; We are at the very same level of 1877 in the mini S&P that we were the day I took that snapshot of the S&P monthly chart back in March! This very moment we're right there.

Michael Nystrom's picture


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Michael Nystrom's picture

This guy is scary because

he's right.

John Williams. Good man. Solid.

Debbie's picture

Yes he is.



As is Greg Hunter. I think one of the principle reasons

the collapse will continue to be relatively slow is because there's nothing better than an economic crisis to educate the masses - Argentina for example. TPTB are judo masters who use Americans' ignorance against them.

Chris Indeedski!

Daily Paul cured my abibliophobia.

Michael Nystrom's picture

But also, one sided

There is nothing wrong with that, just something to keep in mind.

There is also a plausible argument for deflation. All that means is debt default, which seems likely.

It all pops so fast, simultaneously that the fed can't print fast enough.

- - -

There will be some kind of shift, and they'll change the program, over night. Money is just a program, running underneath everything. They could take control and change it overnight. Basically, the Fed owns all the banks. TARP proved that. Banks were forced to borrow, even if they didn't need it.

The screws are tightening
Is this now where they reveal all the ruses?

Is this where they send on the surrogate band / to find out where you fans really stand?

Credit Suisse fined 2.5 billion for the crime of

Keeping people's money safe from the thieves collecting the fine...

Michael Jackson hologram introduced by dancing riot cops...

That's it we're done.

Chris Indeedski!

Daily Paul cured my abibliophobia.

Long term sure Michael...

but he hasn't been right with his hyperinflation calls that I've been tracking since 2008 crisis hit. Every year he has predicted such.

You and I can agree he is a good man and means well with his research of the data, but in the meantime, one has to look at what's going on with prices of gold, silver, the stock market etc. While it may seem out of whack for some, the price is what the price is. The Fed had been fighting deflation, not worrying about inflation. They still are to the tune of $45 billion a month.

Cheers (and I am not in that cabin in the woods writing now, but in Hawaii).

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Curious Doug

Do you know what the net position of the dollar is with the rest of the world?

"Before we can ever ask how things might go wrong; we must first explain how they could ever go right"



Define net position or what you're asking.Thx.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

net reserve position is

Dollar denominated assets are held by foreigners vs how many or much of Foreign currency denominated assets are held by Americans. There are gross numbers for each and when all debits (foreigners hold dollars) are reconciled against credits( Americans holding of foreign assets) what is the balance ( net position).

Here you go Doug.....i wrote this a while back.

Be gentle....I am no writer. Actually I suffered from dyslexia as a child ….before they knew that it existed. So grammar, spelling and writing took a back seat to math…..which I used to become an option trader……I can just see the numbers without even thinking about it.

"Before we can ever ask how things might go wrong; we must first explain how they could ever go right"


Goldspan - good to dig for truth

Goldspan, It's good to dig for truth and come to conclusions and put them out there for the public to read. Keep it up. I do the same thing and the writing of this book will I think shock people, which is what you are doing with your research.

As much as we discover the truth, and present it (I would recommend sourcing your findings with links by the way), we can't ignore the power of the Fed. It is rather comical to me. One of my favorite videos to show how comical was done a few years ago with just the national debt numbers:

How can you not laugh watching that (great actors)!

I look at many, many things to come to conclusion, and I subscribe to Statista for most of the charts for my book. Why would I pay over $1,000 for statistics? Because it is the lifeblood of credibility.

But even with all the data you present that makes your case strongly that a financial crisis is upon us, the market represents the truth today. DOW breaking records along with the S&P and the VIX at record lows along with treasuries is "what's happening now." This despite all the issues with the Fed's balance sheet.

Since 2009, the number of billionaires in the U.S. have doubled. Wealth is growing in Asia and elsewhere. Yet our middle class is no better than they were before the crisis, unless their 401k's and IRA's were invested in the stock market. The Fed is given credit with saving the day because they are "perceived" as saving the system. Even Warren Buffet just praised Timothy Geithner's new book! CNBC worships Buffet.

The next crisis will come. I, like you, am trying to pinpoint how. You may be correct in your assumptions, but when? That's the key. We can be wrong for 10 years before the "when" occurs and I try to stay away from being wrong. I can't ignore what the market tells me. Richard Russell (90 years old almost) taught me this.

Geitner's book, "Stress Test" is number 1 in business. Bernanke is asking $250,000 per speech. None of these guys will admit they were part of the cause of the last crisis. Same with Greenspan who was knighted by England.

The next crisis will be worse and the Fed with Yellen at the help will throw $15 trillion at it. It will work for awhile, but as you quoted...when a long chain of abuses...

The only question is when. We know what the after the fact reaction will be. Just don't ignore the "what's happening now" and allocate assets for the "when."

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

now- the Dow needs to be over 17000 to be the same value of its

6665 low. You cannot ignore that the new bail out dollars went straight to wallstreet. If you calculate the value of the shares in terms of the company you will see how stock costs more for less value. Don't confuse dollars with wealth.
You say it yourself that main street inflation is not the feds concern. Even they know the money is trapped in the wall street system and they can just tax it if it flows out too quickly.
You haven't made a single loaf of bread until you buy the bread. Good luck.


Where did I ignore this? I've written plenty on QE and the banks. I'm the only one who writes about the sub-investment grade derivatives some of the top ones have on the books that are coming due (not to be confused with normal interest rate credit swaps that Zero Hedge writes about).

Last I checked, dollars represent wealth. I can convert them to real assets like gold anytime I want, and vice versa.

I analyze the stock market via the work of Richard Russell and Ed Easterling at Crestmont Research to see if it is of value or over valued, along with my own analysis of 10k's with various accounting ratios I learned almost 30 years ago. I disagree with mainstream buy and hold advice and have written much criticizing "Modern Portfolio Theory" and the "Prudent Man Rule."

Regarding the Fed, they don't tax anything. They only act after the fact to the bubbles they create. When the Velocity of Money is increased, we'll see some action, but not until then. The Fed is fighting deflation no matter what they may say publicly. They need some inflation for their game to thrive.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Doug you are the one eyed Keynesian,

In a room full of blind Libertarians. ( no offense guys!)

You stated that you are concerned by the fact that John Williams has been saying hyperinflation for years and he’s never right. He only “hawking” his newsletter. The thing about it is he is right …but just like all of us we thought the adults would show up sooner than this to put an end to it.

Is it important for him to be right so that you can trade off of it? Or is it more important that he is right and showing us what the so called leadership of this government is doing……John Williams is a STATESMEN, Just like Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, Jim Grant, Rick Santelli and Doug Noland…..which I am sure you don’t know him……Doug Noland has been chronicling the credit excesses since 1994 in his Credit Bubble Bulletin for the Prudent Bear Fund. If you really want to know what going on from a Libertarian point of view there is none better. John Williams work is “keeping the stats” real……so to speak. He is about showing what they would look like if the methodology wasn’t always being manipulated by the USG.

But thats why no one can pin you down as far as disparaging John Williams……you probably never thought of yourself as part of the problem ,did you?

As far as Keynesian analysis goes you are spot on….there is nothing wrong with what you are saying…you just happened to be saying it to a bunch of Libertarians.

What we are witnessing is the death of a currency……how long that take……who knows. The only example we have of the death of a world reserve currency is Great Britain and the pound.

Your analysis is the next or current business cycle…..are you familiar Kondratieff wave. I happen to think that the wave analysis is spot on for the current or next business cycle…..where I have problems it is....... Kondratieff didn’t take his analysis far enough…….his super cycle was never really examined. I believe the super cycle is the life cycle of monetary regimes, which is where John Williams is coming from. I wouldn’t brought this up except I thinks it’s important people find the truth just because it hasn't happened yet ( no one thought the housing bubble was real until it happened)and you haven’t been able to trade on it, does not mean John Williams is wrong……sometimes things take a lot longer than we think. Like I said it took GB almost 50 years and two world wars before they were forced to concede……the USG is not just going to roll over and admit to the hegemony.

"Before we can ever ask how things might go wrong; we must first explain how they could ever go right"


Goldspan, not sure what you are referencing

but you make statements on what I should do without reading any of my body of work obviously. In my 2010 book I quoted Doug Noland. I am again in my current book. I had over 100 references to make my case for a deflationary credit contraction, including Austrian economists who gave me permission to quote them like George Reisman.

What makes you claim "I'm sure you don't know him?"

In giving you the courtesy of replying to you, explaining where we agree and disagree, you seem to want to attack and claim my disagreement with John Williams is that I am attacking all Libertarians. Come on man.

Where is the hyperinflation today? Where was it the last 5 years when he called for it? How have Peter Schiff's gold mining stock recommendations done since 2011 when I told people to sell them when the Hui was north of 400?

What's more "important" is my clients getting the best price possible and for those who read what I write to make good investment decisions. That's what I've done for about 30 years as a financial advisor. I'm not going to change because Ron Paul, who I have met twice, and I may disagree on some points (I sent him a copy of my book too and he thanked me).

You see, what most people don't understand is that Ron Paul as President would have killed a lot of the economy in the beginning. But we would have a sound base to grow on now. We have simply delayed the pain. You and I agree on that and eventually you, Schiff and Williams will be closer to the truth. But most have discounted the power of what trillions thrown at a problem could have after the last crisis and will have after the next crisis. We are a long way away from hyperinflation and a dollar crash.

But I'm not going to convince you. I've been writing online since 2008 and since 2002 on Richard Russell site and my reputation as one who calls things well is good enough for those that follow me.

If you really want to step into the lions den, then submit articles to Seeking Alpha editors and see how you do. Write comments on that site to articles and see how you do. I do it every day.

Good luck.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!


You are the proof of when Keynes quoted Lenin

“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some... Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

The corner stone of Libertarian / Austrian economics is sound money…..period. Therefore inflation is defined as an increase in the medium of exchange. Some people like to add “beyond the current productive capacity of the economy”. Me personally I believe that the “Real Bills Doctrine” is an acceptable form of credit expansion beyond the current mean of production. The monetarist believe that monetary expansion should keep pace with output which leads to the excess of credit creation through fractional reserve banking, most easily measure by M3. Which by coincidence JW is the ONLY PERSON keeping track of since the USG stopped reporting it ( Hum…..wonder why they did that). Keynes thought that as long as the loss of purchasing power was not measure by the rise in consumer prices that we can inflate to infinity. Keynes was not able to see (exactly what Linen said), where inflation starts and how works its way through the economy, first in financial assets, then to real assets and finally to consumer prices. The destruction of inflation goes beyond just the rise in consumer prices. It breaks down the pricing structure of the market by encouraging mal-investment by allowing marginal players into the market place that would otherwise be blocked by the opportunity cost of capital. When capital is made so cheap the any Tom, Dick or Doug can enter the market it devalues future earning of previously invested capital under normal opportunity cost. The so called cure for cheap capital is ALWAYS to provide even more and cheaper capital. Eventually the debt burden becomes so great that cash flows cannot service the debt and the only way to survive is more debt. For a government this is when the central bank begins to monetize their deficits. This is exactly what QE is. QE 1 was the USG attempt to ring fence Fannie and Freddie (which are quasi central banks for the mortgage market). After their accounting scandals in 04 everyone knew this was a ticking time bomb. There was a meeting on April 28, 2004 where the Fed brought all the banks into a room and basically told them to lever up…. to cover up Fannie and Freddie. Never mind that were already pushing the limits of sound judgment ( BTW the real crisis of 2008 was not the products but the policies (securitization) that were used including the amount of leverage that the banks were permitted to use to mask over Fannie and Freddie accounting scandal……for whom you ask…..the politician……who is ALWAYS the source of the problems.). QE 2 was the payoff for the bribe……cleans up the bank’s balance sheet by providing capital, and then there was “Operation Twist” which was selling “twos” and buying “tens”…..which didn’t works. And let’s not forget the 800 billion shovel ready stimulus package that was the payoff for the States. But the real stroke of genius was paying interest for “excess reserves” at the Fed. This really was a bold and new move, for the first time in 95 years the Fed paid interest for excess reserves. With that in place and the purchases by the Fed of about 1.2 trillion in mortgages and Treasuries from QE 1 & 2, this is what really gave the banking system time to heal………master stroke….really. The banks got free money and were paid interest for taking it…… this a great country or what? But QE 3 was about keeping the mortgage market open…..the Fed basically became the only player in town for mortgages…….with Fannie and Freddie in receivership and the private label market now dead….the Fed had to become the new central bank for the housing market. Pay attention here because this is original analysis that NO ONE has said. QE4 ……this is what no one seems to understand, was not about helping the banks at all… was about papering over the budget deficits of the USG…..period. If you know how the treasury market works this will make since. If you don’t know how it works read this.

But that’s why they are now starting to unwind it. With zero interest rates in place (forever I guess) and the budget deficits now half what they were since the crisis (these are the cash deficits, not the GAAP deficits the JW reports) the USG doesn’t need to borrow as much, alleviating the presence of the FED in the market. If Rick Santelli is right (and I know he is) this is why we are seeing a flatting of the yield curve. With duration of the treasury complex at around 5 years and a much smaller supply of 10’s coming to market this is a convexity play here and the players are all in. I don’t believe that the fall in the 10 year yield is because of a pending recession……because like JW I don’t believe that the recession has ever ended. They (being the USG and Fed) have been “inflating” the money supply since…..well since there became the United States Government. With the Fed being the 3rd central bank in this government’s history and already numerous defaults on the dollar (think Roosevelt’s massive 75% devaluation or Nixon closing the gold window) I have no faith in my government when it comes to keeping their word……we all know it going to happen…….when is only if you are trying to trade off of it… the game until the music stops.

Now at this point we all know the dollars days are numbered…….we are all aware of the inflation that has taken place…….With the USG being the largest debtor in the history of the world……including all history of the world….I guess it depends on what you are looking at or for that determines whether you think we are at inflation of hyperinflation…….but if you are looking for that in consumer prices you are just one of those people that Keynes said was unable to see it.

"Before we can ever ask how things might go wrong; we must first explain how they could ever go right"


Goldspan, we are also the

Goldspan, we are also the largest producer in the world. We are in a deflationary credit contraction the Fed is fighting with QE (most Austrians, like you, miss the boat on this because they don't include credit in their inflation definition).

QE has helped the banks balance sheets in the U.S., but there are still issues with European banks who are still trying to unload underperforming derivatives on a greater fool (note dollar strength and Euro weakness of late).

Eventually the velocity of money will give us inflation. Eventually the 10 year will be above 10%. Until then, deflation is what the Fed is fighting to the tune of $45 billion a month.

There won't be any hyperinflation anytime soon with the world's largest economy. But inflation will come. I have given you what to watch to notice it. Then we can discuss what the extent of the inflation will be.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Doug you couldn’t be more wrong

One.... I did address credit creation by speaking about the excess reserves caught at the Fed and measured by M3. M3 is EXACTLY where the velocity is measured. If you bother to look at JW chart….who is the only person reporting M3 anymore you get a real clear picture of the credit contraction that occurred from 2008 to the second half of 2010. Since then M3 has almost returned to it normal growth….this is proof that your analysis is flawed.

Secondly…..if you won’t believe me… about believing Doug Noland.

I see ample ongoing confirmation of the “Granddaddy of all Bubbles” thesis. The stock market is reminiscent of 1999 – except today’s excesses are more broadly based (and the risks much greater!). Credit market excesses recall 2007, with record leveraged lending fueling record M&A. In total, financial asset prices have inflated to unprecedented levels – in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP. Globally, record low bond yields in Italy and Spain are indicative of a historic Bubble in European debt and financial assets more generally. Reckless Japanese monetary inflation has made an absolute mess out of Japanese stock and bond markets. Throughout EM, I see financial asset prices that in no way reflect the huge risks overhanging vulnerable Credit systems and real economies. I believe China is an unfolding financial disaster with history’s most maladjusted economic structure. Throughout Asia, massive overcapacity portends trouble for financial assets.

It’s been my view that a going on six-year old “global government finance Bubble” last year suffered its first subprime-like cracks (EM and China). It’s worth recalling Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince’s infamous quote from July 2007 (via the FT): “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”

Why was Mr. Prince - and about everyone else - still dancing in the summer of 2007 – when it seemed rather clear the environment was in the process of changing? Because there was so much money to be made. Because the cautious were being left in the dust. Because it seemed irrational not to be participating in one of the most lucrative financial backdrops ever. Because not participating in the industry boom was career jeopardizing. Because, as Keynes noted a long time ago, if you’re going to be wrong you’d better be wrong right along with the group. The exuberant Crowd had convinced themselves that the Fed had everything under control (“Would never allow a housing bust!”)

Think of it this way: Going all the way back to the nineties, the Fed has promoted and accommodated a New Age Credit system increasingly dominated by marketable-based Credit (as opposed to traditional bank loans). This new system ensured ever-increasing market risk (growing quantities of securities with market, duration and Credit risk) and a resulting booming derivatives (“insurance”) marketplace. To ensure viability for this ballooning system of securitizations and derivatives, the Federal Reserve pegged short-term rates and essentially guaranteed that securities markets would remain “liquid and continuous.” Basically, the Fed had to promise that Credit would remain in a perpetual “bull market.” And this assurance of financial nirvana nurtured a historic cycle of speculative excess – speculation that I believe is late in the “Terminal Phase.”

From my analytical perspective, this global Bubble in New Age Credit has finally arrived at a critical crossroads. Rates have been held at zero for years. And for years, Fed and global central bank balance sheets have inflated like never before. This “money” printing culminated with the Fed and BOJ combining for $150bn a month. Fledgling asset and securities Bubbles were pushed to dangerous excess everywhere – bigger and more dangerous than ever. Global securities markets speculative excess now dwarfs even 2007. Yet even extreme financial excess equates with only feeble (and highly unbalanced) economic growth. Moreover, the world has seemingly now been fully inundated by Fed Credit and U.S. debt. And, importantly, the Chinese no longer see it in their best interest to do another round of big stimulus and accumulate only more U.S. IOUs and global debt securities. Russia and others see a global system controlled by the West that is working against their interests.
Not surprisingly, there have been (going all the way back to the 1994 bond bust) market problems all along the way. To be sure, this system – both domestically and on an international basis – has proven itself highly unstable – a propagator of serial booms and busts. The Fed and global central bankers have had to resort to increasingly radical measures to resuscitate faltering or burst Bubbles. The system came close to meltdown back in 2008/09. Eurozone finance came close to meltdown again in 2011/2012. And since autumn 2012 global central bankers have instigated the greatest monetary inflation in history. Global securities markets have inflated to record highs, as exuberant investors now look back at the “Lehman crisis” as the proverbial “100-year flood.”

These days, “accommodation” doesn’t do justice to ongoing unprecedented monetary stimulus, which ensures that manic equities and Credit markets completely disregard major fundamental changes in the global landscape. China doesn’t matter. Ukraine and Russia don’t matter. A conspicuously underperforming U.S. economy doesn’t matter.
The approaching end to QE doesn’t matter. An alarmingly deteriorating geopolitical environment doesn’t matter. As they say, “It doesn’t matter until it does.” Yet, through it all, don’t lose track of an important fact: They all matter – and together they will matter a great deal.

"Before we can ever ask how things might go wrong; we must first explain how they could ever go right"


Goldspan, you can call me wrong

but what I say in my articles and to my clients has been right. The original issue we were discussing you'll recall was hyperinflation and dollar going to zero. These thoughts are silly with an economy that leads the world.

You then in your last reply said what you thought inflation was and I pointed out the inaccuracy of yours and the Austrian's (many, not all) thought that has discounted the deflationary aspect of credit as they only look at the monetary base. Williams has called for hyperinflation every year. Has he been right? Hardly. Where is it? When is it coming? Do you really think we're Zimbabwe here?

Again, we are in a deflationary credit contraction the Fed is fighting with QE and Congress following the Keynes philosophy of adding more debt (via deficits). So far this debt is "managed" because of Fed induced lower interest rates. When the 10 year is over 3% and the velocity of money kicks in via the chart, I'll start talking inflation.

I agree with Noland on China, Japan and Europe. I've written plenty on Japan and Europe and the issues forthcoming stemming from these areas, not here in the U.S. The dollar strength and treasury strength support my point of view at present.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!