23 votes

Shadowstats: The future is here today. "We are on the brink of disaster"

Dollar on the Brink of Disaster-John Williams
By Greg Hunter’s www.USAWatchdog.com


http://youtu.be/QrHpcigR_xg

Economist John Williams has a dire prediction for the U.S. dollar. Williams says, “I don’t see what will save it at this point. . . . Now we are to the point that the dollar has been ignored for years. The federal deficit has been ignored for years. . . . That’s what we are on the brink of disaster with, and that is what has to be addressed now, and that’s not happening.”

Williams also contends, “The way I see it, the dollar could go to zero in terms of its purchasing power. You don’t want to have your assets in U.S. dollars.”

Read more at:
http://usawatchdog.com/dollar-on-the-brink-of-disaster-john-...



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Just because you keep saying doesn’t make it true

We are not in a deflationary credit contraction….the world is awash in Yen, pounds and dollars. We had a credit contraction ……you bet…….. Devalued capital of a broke banking system. But like I said QE1& 2 cured that, QE 3&4 is about re-inflating the world anew. You Keynesians just NEVER admit your failed policies are what got us in this mess. The reason Austrians concentrate on monetary matters is because we know the true source of the inflation starts with the central banks. No one documents the money and credit inflation better than the Austrians.

I documented the velocity in the M3; if you have read any of my post on here I was talking about this long before you. I also mentioned the “master stoke of genus” of paying interest for excess reserves. Now they are talking about creating a floor and ceiling as a way to revive the funds market to normalize interest and end the zero rate policy….we will have to see how that works out.

You keep telling me how right you have been and how well you have done for “all” your clients as if that supposed to impress me.

But weren’t you wrong on the Euro?
http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/economy/did-bernanke-imple...

Weren’t you wrong on you call for a market top in 2012 in the stock market?

“In September, when the S&P was at 1435, I started warning investors of a stock market bubble based on the data I saw at the time. Today, the S&P 500 has fallen 85 points since that warning, as seen in the chart below. Perhaps we are due for a bounce, but what economic reasoning would there be for such a bounce?”

Bounced is an understatement!.......bounced straight to 1900 on the S&P…that’s a 35% bounce in 18 months…….hope your clients weren’t short.

Is this your call on Gold in 2012

That’s why you buy gold.
The Fed has to be ready to help their buds across the pond in all those failed economies, and of course the ECB, because we are all one now. No risk of anything bad happening right America? I mean, 2008 was so long ago everyone’s forgotten about it. That was last decade! Bernanke saved us then and he’s doing the right thing now right?

Wrong again

So tell me Doug……where are all these “right calls” I wouldn’t have asked but you were the one that keeps bringing it up as if I should be impressed…..and therefore should just give up this debate. You met the wrong guy for that. I retired from clients in 1994….I only trade my own money. It’s all about the strategy. I was wrong on a trade on Friday and still made money. That’s how it’s done!
ETF can be crap…..if they don’t manage the cantango and just roll the positions; I would never buy an ETF (except from Jim Rogers) or a bond mutual fund. Why are you recommending paper derivatives if you are such a hard money guy.

All economic data is reported for one reason and one reason only…….to determine the direction of interest rates. If we are at a zero rates policy there is only one way rates can go……plan for that it will happen……unless you need to make a commission….then trade around the senseless government reported data.

The cost of capital is what determines the values of every other investment.

There is a philosophical thought that goes something like this….i don’t remember the name of it so I call it “Station In life”.
People can justify their action based upon how they make their way in the world….how they make a living. Their perception is based upon their own personal reality…….doesn’t make it right, just makes it so they can live with themselves for some of the things they do.”
Take a politician….say Bill Clinton (ok maybe extreme case). If you asked him……he can justify what he thinks based how he makes a living. Take his wife…how does she justify all of it….and she can, she actually thinks she is a good person.

You Doug……you make your way in life managing other people’s money……you have to justify your next trade, just so you know…..I stopped managing other people’s money in 1994 after the Mexican debt crisis and learning how countries go broke in this Keynesian world. I walked away from a 6 figure salary , plus bonuses because it was the right thing to do…..I couldn’t invest other people’s money knowing the dollar was eventually going to fail….I put my money were my mouths was. Since then I just manage my money trading options……it’s all about the strategy ……I don’t guess on which way any product is going to move. I know EXACTLY when I am getting in, getting out, my profit and how much I am risking…..on every trade, before I trade it.
And once again you were wrong……This conversation started because of your condescending disparaging remarks about John Williams and he’s just hawking his newsletter (and Peter Schiff and Lew Rockwell). You stated there was never going to be right on this “hyperinflation” call or the destruction of the dollar because we are the greatest country in the world (paraphrasing) No one every mention Zimbabwe, in fact I pointed specifically to Great Britain as being the only world reserve currency example. Doug I will go one further……the hyperinflation has already occurred, it sitting as the reserves of other nations banking systems…….a negative 11 trillion position……that is cold hard fact…..period. The most inflation in the history of the world……like I said before…..NOT ONE IN A MILLION CAN SEE IT!
You come on a Libertarian web site for what…..to disparaging Libertarians……talking about all your successes and who you’ve me……for what….to hawk your next book. Bet you never thought you find a libertarian with an attitude….lucky you.

Let's just let the people decide.

Easy to take a point out of context

Goldspan, It's easy to take a snippet out of context of what I have said over a body of work.

And where do you get off saying I'm a Keynesian when I point out what some Austrians say that disagree with other Austrians?

Here is my body of work on gold, my expertise, the last few years. My "clients" buy gold and silver from me, and I challenge you to find anyone who sells gold and silver to have called the market better.

As far as me "disparaging libertarians," funny how you see that when I am simply discussing economic theory with you, and telling you how ridiculous the hyperinflation hawks like John Williams have sounded for the last 6 years.

As far as me "hawking my book," I'll do whatever I want to in calling the markets like I see them and criticizing those who I see as ridiculous in their comments. I did it with Celente recently to the last time you tried to critique what I have said.

If you don't like it, try going on Seeking Alpha and making over 2000 comments open to scrutiny from anyone in the world. Try writing an article and spreading your point of view and getting it by the Seeking Alpha editors like I have. I don't have to come here, but some people here respect what I have to say.

I pointed out where we agreed yet you want to concentrate on where we disagree. You have your own agenda of sticking up for those I criticize. Write about it on a public site and get back to me how it is received and your defense of it. Then publish your own book and try and make a difference in this world. I'm confident with what I write. I'm confident in my mission. I'm confident my clients will prosper in the years ahead.

Here are my articles in reverse chronological order:

December 2013

Gold and Dollar Down but Both Will Rise Next Year 

"You can see from this longer term chart that we are still in a Dollar short term uptrend since April of 2011 and the price of gold has fallen since about that time. The question a buyer of gold has to ask, is will the dollar break down from here or continue higher?  I am in the camp that it will break higher. This isn’t what a gold bull wants to hear, but for me to say this, it simply means that I am more negative on the Yen and Euro which make up 70% of the Dollar Index. If those go down in value, the Dollar, by default, benefits."
Why Gold and Silver Will Break to New Lows and Tax Moves to Capitalize Upon

"We are close to breaking the 52 week closing low in gold at $1,192 and do think we break the 52 week lows in both gold and silver and push toward $1,000 now in gold. It is even possible that Market Makers will push gold below the $1,000 mark into the $900′s, on one or two panic sell days. When we do get the final smack down which I have been patiently waiting for, I will be writing my all-in article. For now, I see an up month in gold for January. The one’s doing the selling for tax reasons today will reestablish their positions in the metals in January to take advantage of the coming break to higher highs. But I do expect that one more smack down."

November 2013

Fed Quantitative Easing Coming to an End Sooner than Expected?

I called the $10 Billion token taper. "Is there a chance the Fed may do a token taper to make the market think they still have control of the situation? Sure. Especially if the stock market is out of control and interest rates are low enough. But it won’t be much at all. Probably like the $10 billion that the market thought the Fed would do last time they met."

September 2013

Gold and Silver Are Insurance against $17 Trillion of National Debt and More

"Investing in physical gold and silver is not a profit driven investment. It is a mindset. It gives investors the same type of peace of mind that protects their wealth they receive by insuring their home, auto or health…just in case something happens where they need it. What other type of insurance gives a return that is guaranteed not to be zero and has a 4,000 plus year history of purchasing power stability? What other currency can claim such a track record? Is it the Federal Reserve Notes you carry in your wallet that have 42 short years of existence without a relationship to gold? If gold was so invaluable, why do all Central Banks own it? Why do we have any gold at Fort Knox? Why are Germany and other countries asking to take possession of their gold?"

Calling the Fed Taper Bluff and What Gold Might Do Next

I called the Fed Taper bluff. "I believe the Fed will come out Sept. 17th and 18th next week and say the economy is doing well, but we still need to keep an eye on things. They can’t possibly rattle the markets with any tapering action."

August 2013

Sticking With Stronger Dollar and Weaker Gold Through End of Year

When gold was $1,420 I called for weaker gold prices till year end. "Lastly, I will lay out the reasoning why gold could fall into the end of the year and why January may just be a stellar month and 2014 and beyond, stellar years. But we have to let this deflationary credit contractions play out a little longer."

July 2013

Nice Run Up In Gold and Silver Prices – Expect a Pullback

I called the pullback about perfectly. "Since we have had a nice run up in price off the under $1,150 lows for gold, and have now broken through $1,300, expect another test of the lows here at some point. Same goes with silver which has had an even better rebound off the lows."

June 2013

Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver?

When gold was $1,223.40 and silver was $18.36, I said there is an 80% probability of prices moving higher. They did! "What gives me even more confidence that a bottom is in or close to being in, comes from the fact that 8 out of the last 10 summers, including the last 4 years straight, have been positive for gold (See Table Below). If you are conservative, this would be a safer play than silver right now, but personally I like the risk vs. reward for silver. The gold/silver ratio is almost 66 right now and I see that ratio returning to the mid 30′s range again."

April 2013

Gold and Silver Dead Cat Bounce and More Carnage to Come or All In?

I called the Dead Cat bounce reversal perfectly and gold fell $100. "After this recent run up in price to the present level of $1,470an ounce for gold, I wouldn't be chasing it. Silver has been a bit of a laggard compared to gold recently, and is showing greater signs of weakness, despite the more than $1 plus run up in price yesterday as it breaches $24.00 an ounce. $1,500 and $25 would be the round figures I see as resistance and the potential for the last and possibly final leg down for precious metals."

February 2013

Will the Price of Gold and Silver Keep Falling?

I said that I fully expect over the next few months the Market Makers to test and break the 200 day moving averages lower on both gold and silver. They did! "I fully expect over the next few months the Market Makers to test and break the 200 day moving averages lower on both gold and silver. "

Hey Gold Bugs! The Dollar Still Matters!

"So what's next for gold? A bounce followed by a further pullback in gold breaking to fresh lows is on the horizon. Market Makers like to make investors scream UNCLE, if they can. They will move the price higher over the short term with the goal of getting new investors to think the bottom for gold prices is in (especially those who buy on margin), and then pull the rug out from under them, slamming the price lower. I have seen this pattern 100 times. Eventually, a bottom will be put in, and I will attempt to call it."

Following are excerpts from 2012 articles:

Sept. 2012
"We will bottom out in gold and silver. Are we there now? I just don’t know. In 2008 when our economy headed south, gold and silver fell with it. It all depends on what comes from Bernanke’s mouth and the last think I think he wants is for gold and silver to go to the moon quickly. It would reveal just how weak the Fed is. While I believe the Fed is weak, it is still relevant in the minds of investors…..for now."

Aug. 2012
"Something’s got to give and the U.S. dollar, being the lesser of two evils and with better data at present, should benefit from this, possibly putting some pressure on gold and silver prices."

July 2012
"I feel we will be somewhat status quo with gold and silver for the time being, and I think we need to look for that one burst down for the final opportunity to catch the bottom. My advice is still to dollar cost average into a position and this will give you a better overall price."

May 2012
"Gold is still in its second and longest phase. The professionals will still try and buck you off the gold and silver bull. The dips will come."

January 2012
"I have been saying that while the U.S. dollar gains strength, primarily against the Euro, it could have some pressure on gold and silver."

September 2010
When the HUI (Gold Bug Index of stocks) was $512.56 I made a call to sell gold mining stocks and buy gold. Gold was $1,314.10 then. Gold today is $1,242 about an 6% loss. HUI is $209.90 today, about a 57% decline.
I’m Calling a Top On Gold and Silver Trades

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Trying to belittle me personally for disagreeing

with you professionally shows just what kind of person you are. I have not disparaged you at all…..only your work. I don’t hawk products or a book…..therefore peer review means nothing to me. As far as your standard of “helping” others……is it really help if you charge for it……that sounds like a service. And if you are charging for this sophomoric….ok we will call it, research…….that sounds more like rehashing what was said on CNBC today with splashes of conjecture…..but if people buy it, it just proves the greater fool theory. With that being said I am not going to waste my time going through each of your calls to see if you were right…..trust me …you are not that interesting…they wouldn’t even be part of the conversation if you weren’t constantly slapping yourself on the back.

As far as me posting on Seeking Alpha, it would take either a complete fool or arrogant prick to go to an opposing website and think that I would be able to teach them anything. They all went to the same Keynesian Universities and were taught all the same Keynesian crap. That’s why I call you a Keynesian….you never educated yourself beyond the university. I bet you have said this to yourself a thousand times……”What does that guy know…..I got my degree in (fill in the blank) from (fill in the blank).

And if you are so admired at Seeking Alpha…..then why did you right this:

“AUTHOR's NOTE: I have decided to no longer write for Seeking Alpha because of their lack of professionalism and control of content that goes against what I believe in and have written about in my book, Buy Gold and Silver Safely. They have been forcing authors to include paper stocks, ETF's or Mutual Funds as alternatives to physical precious metals for one's portfolio in every article when my company specializes in the physical delivery of metals to my clients and doesn't even sell paper assets. I have battled with the Seeking Alpha editors for years, well before they even had a Gold and Precious Metals category (which I believe I forced them to do). I gave them one last chance to post this current article you are reading as it was a timely piece based on current market action, and over 8 hours had gone by waiting on their review before I finally had to give up on them publishing it.”

So they are forcing people to include products that their writers don’t agree with……doesn’t sound like a free market to me…..sounds kind of Keynesian……I am surprised you are unhappy.

And you were the one the rattled my cage first……talking to LH…..but replying to my post.

“you're never going to increase your "recent reception" here at Daily Paul if you attack the status quo thiking, criticize anyone related to Lew Rockwell's website, disagree with Peter Schiff or say gold is going down.”

My only purpose for being here is to keep the message honest…..the Libertarian message. If I have to ruffle a few feathers….better that, than allowing the conspiracy kooks, Greenbackers & Keynesian to dilute the message. I told you….. I am an Austrian with an Attitude.

Goldspan, interesting...

Goldspan,funny how you view my suggestions for you to go write articles for Seeking Alpha as belittling. I'm serious. If you past their muster, then you will have many followers. Try making comments about articles written there first though and see if you pass the muster of those who you make comments to.

I wrote that comment on my Seeking Alpha author page about Seeking Alpha editors because they are biased against authors writing about "physical" gold and silver. But even before that I have battled with them since BEFORE they had a Gold and Precious metals category and have documented their biased replies for about 5 years now. I stopped writing articles for them because of this disagreement and everyone there who is an author knows this. But I have over 2400 comments on the site where I post most every day you that can sift through that most who frequent Seeking Alpha appreciate my point of view when you view their replies. It's ok that you don't.

Hey...gold is down again the last couple days. I'm right. Should I be embarrassed? Should I not continue to write? If I don't write something, and I really don't come here that often and write articles, then perhaps Peter Schiff should stop doing videos because he's been wrong? Should he stop making videos? Should I stop writing comments on gold or economic data for Daily Paul because they upset you?

I don't care if people buy gold from me or not. I simply wait for the phone to ring. You'll notice there are no ads buy my own on my website. I could make more money by adding Google adsense. I could make a ton more money by selling numismatic coins and ripping people off like Goldline, Lear Capital, etc. I choose not to.

You say you are trying to write honest stuff, well, you never answered my questions. Where's the hyperinflation? Why are treasuries so strong? Why is the dollar rising since 2011? Should people just follow John Williams from Shadowstats blindly and believe it's gospel?

Just because I ask these questions to get you to think, doesn't mean I'm a Keynesian. And by the way, I have been to Lew Rockwell's Austrian Scholars conference in Auburn, AL and several of his Mises Circle events. I've also donated to Lew personally, and to Michael here as well as to Ron Paul.

I'll let you have the last word where you try and pinpoint who I am. Don't really have anything else that you'll appreciate to write at this point, but I'm sure your response will come off as "you're a keynesian!"

And yes, if you are going to write something on a public forum (your comment to LH that God forbid I replied in disagreement) then expect someone to reply if they disagree with you. That's part of life.

Good luck to you.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

What in the world would I do with followers?

I don’t need people to follow me……haha….it that your measure of success?

This is exactly what I am talking about…..you act as if having people follow you is a level of success, as if only I can do that too……….then I am worthy…..man…that is some kind of arrogant. I don’t even have a Facebook orTtwitter account……I’m an adult.
Do you really think people care who you have met …..haha….this shit kills me.

I told you ……I trade my own money…..people who trade for real are more likely to complain about our losses then slapping our self on the back for getting it right…..we just take it to the bank.
I keep trying to have a honest discussion with you and you just want to keep telling me how great you are…..man I am glad I am not you.

You are a Keynesian……and the worst part is you don’t even know it.

You miss the point as usual.

If you tried to post an article on Seeking Alpha or make a comment there, you would find that you don't know as much as you think you know. Try it. See how you do. But you won't. You'd rather listen to yourself here try and claim superiority by calling others Keynesians simply because they point out we're not in hyperinflation and disagree with John Williams who has been wrong on his calls for 6 straight years.

You claim you know about "people who trade for real" and how they won't slap themselves on the back for getting it right. No, people who trade for real help others make money. That's all I have done with my comments on gold. My clients know this and anyone who has followed me for the last almost 7 years on Daily Paul know this.

And then you keep calling me a keynesian as it gives you some sort of good feeling. You crack me up man.

When you get a chance, go to wetheserfs.com/blog and you can see my body of work since 2008 to show you what a Keynesian I am. Of course the website is down right now, but should be up in the next few days.

I don't have facebook as I deactivated it to write a couple years ago and haven't been on twitter in years. So that makes me an adult? ok.

And it's not who I have met. It's who I have personally contributed to. Man...all you want to do is criticize.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

If I post on SA......I would have to write to the other

Keynesians.......what could I possibly say to them that they think they don’t already know…..should I explain sound money…..oh wait they are a bunch of inflationist that believe that we are in a credit contraction….oh just like you. Let it go man ....you are toast.

that's what I thought

so everyone at Seeking Alpha is a Keynesian.

And I'm a Keynesian because you can't show me where the hyperinflation is.

ok...

http://books.google.com/books?id=OFTJEJfXniUC&pg=PA28&lpg=PA...

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

that's what you thought

huh?

You could

actually include Ron Paul in the same category, as he has been talking about hyperinflation for even longer, but they can't predict what kind of ponzi schemes the Rothschild International Banking Cabal will use to keep the Fed system afloat.

However, like Paul Craig Roberts has stated, their ponzi schemes with the metals market, bonds, dirivatives, QE false inflating stock prices, have all run their course. The rest of the World is moving away from the dollar, and their conflicts with Russia and China will bring the 'waterloo' for the petro dollar, that has been keeping the system on life support. Russia decided a few years ago, they paid their debt, and no longer want to play this game. China, on the other hand, has been stuck playing with much of our Manufacturers located in their country, and the massive debt they believed would strengthen their buying power. But, they too, have been working down their Fed debt buying and holdings, and seem to be working on alternatives with Russia and the Brics coalition. I still haven't heard anybody who knows for sure, if they thought they could bully Putin by overthrowing Ukraines elected government and get him to go along with the game, or this is a plan to 'kill' the dollar and blame Russia for WWIII. Only time will tell?

understood Freedom

But Ron Paul's body of work isn't to sell a newsletter or a product.

The things you mentioned have not run their course at all. Japan lasted a lot longer (and still is) with their deflationary spiral. The Yen has survived quite well even though Japan has the largest debt to GDP ratio of any modern nation. It is "perception" that keeps them afloat. Their citizens buy most all their nations debt, about 98%. But cracks are coming in their Humpty Dumpty economy. They no longer are a strong exporter. Their monetary policy last year was for a weaker Yen and now they are taxing more. I see Japan cracking well before the U.S. does.

China has huge issues. Russia isn't close to being a player, but they are still trying to hold onto the illusion they mean something (other than natural gas supplier and a thorn in Europe's side). Not everyone is moving away from the dollar. In fact, Argentina, Brazil, and others will gladly sell you their currencies at a discount to get dollars. China's not going to make their currency stronger for any reason for decades. Why would they? Why would they make their products more expensive? Do you hear Congress calling them out any longer? No. Congress needs China to continue being a buyer of Treasuries. Treasuries are still strong I might add, even though they pay very little. Somehow the hyper-inflationists miss this point.

Will things be perfect for the dollar? No. We all know the issues facing it here at home. But I think the attention will head to Europe and Japan next. At least that's one of the points I'm making in my next book.

If Russia and the Ukraine issue was important, gold would have taken off. It hasn't. Dollar is still above 80 on the Index. Treasuries have only gotten stronger of late. Lots of headwind for gold unfortunately. I don't want to be right, but I just call it like I see it. I can also change my mind on a silver dime and I will when I write my "all-in" article. Most anyone who has read my articles the last year or so know I've been waiting patiently to write it. If I'm right, and we do break lower, then great for those who have waited. If I am wrong, then most will have dollar cost averaged into a good position and will continue to buy at a good price compared to where we are headed in the next year or so. A return of 50% is still good but some will make 70% (if they sell). I don't think either will complain (and these are just arbitrary numbers to make a point).

Thanks for the reply.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

dollar will rise against all currencies and gold

As the debt bubble pops there will be a mad scramble for Safe haven currencies...and like it or not the Dollar is one..as is the Swiss Franc....not the Yen, Euro or Pound or the Yuan...in fact the debt deflation may start in China if it already hasn't!

spoken like a true Elliot

spoken like a true Elliot waver.

A rebuttal to John Williams from Shadowstats

I sell gold for a living and can't be as negative on the dollar so often like John Williams from Shadowstats calling for hyperinflation every year to sell his newsletter subscription.

The dollar isn't going to zero. To do so, by default, the Euro, Yen, Pound and other currencies that make up the basket (Dollar Index) would have to rise "to the moon" and that's just not going to occur. Have you seen the Debt to GDP ratios of these countries? Where are they compared to the U.S.?

The point is, it's not all about the U.S. If we are in currency wars, it is an illusion to think one will fall and others rise. This doesn't mean that eventually they will all fall (resume the trend) priced in gold. Just look at the 5 and 10 year charts for each. Eventually, gold will rebound and all currencies will buy less of it. But none can go to zero.

To say the U.S. dollar will go to zero when we have the world's largest and most powerful military and a willingness to use it is pure nonsense. We still produce as a country and yes, we have huge issues. But who is going to take over as the leader of the world and when? It sure isn't China. It sure isn't Europe. Japan is toast. Canada? Switzerland? Hardly.

There are many reasons to diversify into gold, but right now don't expect the dollar to crash by supporting his newsletter to keep you in fear. There are many out there that buy this story. Many.

I could easily write about all the negative issues occurring in the U.S. and the world and make a lot more money. A lot! But I try to call it like I see it. If I'm down voted for speaking up for the dollar, so be it. But riddle me this...why are U.S. treasuries so strong if the dollar is going to zero?

There's more to it than just the dollar and the future U.S. economy does have serious issues. But understand what a dollar is or represents; a basket of other currencies that would have to miraculously appreciate in order for the dollar to capitulate and go to zero.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Martin Armstrong has some

Martin Armstrong has some good stuff to say on this too.

Thanks Sierra

He's another one I read.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

I think the real problems

I think the real problems start around 2018. At that point I think we will see the total collapse. 2018 to 2020 time frame.

Will be interesting

to see what Japan and Europe do with their issues. China too.

I think things will crack up in those places before here. But I can't yet see why Axel Merk is still so bullish on the Euro, although he may have changed his mind of late since it turned the corner.

He's been busy starting his new gold ETF; OUNZ. I was on a conference webinar with him this afternoon and I like it because it allows you to take physical delivery. But unfortunately for most, the fee to do so only makes sense for those liquidating more than 40 ounces of gold or more. I still say physical delivery is better than any ETF, but of course I'm biased. :-)

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

The dollar isn't going to

The dollar isn't going to zero. To do so, by default, the Euro, Yen, Pound and other currencies that make up the basket (Dollar Index) would have to rise "to the moon"

What about Germany in the 1920s? Their currency did pretty much go to zero. In a span of two years the dollar went from being worth around 300 Marks to being worth 4+ trillion marks.

It has nothing to do with other currencies having to rise to the moon.

EVERYTHING will rise to the moon when priced in dollars, if the dollar crashes to zero or anywhere close to zero. Eggs, books, beer, houses, cars - literally everything will skyrocket in price. Not a skyrocket in value but price which is in dollars. By the time that happens most people will probably already be using alternative currencies or bartering.

...

john2k

You're really not comparing the strongest economy in the world to that of Germany after the war are you? It's a common association the hyperinflationists try and correlate. One can't compare the two with any logic. Again, the dollar can't got to zero. It's impossible. It always has to be priced in something (other currencies that would have to automatically appreciate as a result). What they buy you will slowly be less over time because of inflation. The Fed however is fighting deflation. Why else would they be implementing QE?

BTW, my Zimbabwe $100 trillion bills have appreciated 400% since I bought them a few years ago. Will sell on Ebay when I get back to the mainland. Holding onto my German marks though.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

My point is that when you

My point is that when you price something in dollars and the dollar crashes then everything priced in dollars skyrockets in price relative to the significance of the dollar crash.

Price and value are not the same thing, so it is not an increase in value but only price.

The foreign currency "appreciation" you refer to is not value increasing, it's price denominated in dollars which is increasing. And that happens because of the dollar's diminished capacity to store & transfer value in transactions.

"other currencies that would have to automatically appreciate as a result"

All else being equal (with regards to other factors such as supply/demand impacting prices), anything priced in a depreciating currency rises in price when denominated in that same depreciating currency. It has to, because the before and after prices are both in terms of the currency which depreciated.

The appreciation you are referring to is price appreciation, not value appreciation.

It always has to be priced in something

The dollar is always priced in something. When you price anything in dollars at the same time you are pricing dollars in that thing. For example, if a gallon of milk is equivalent in value to 4 dollars then that also means 1 dollar is equivalent in value to 1/4 gallon of milk. Or if you like gold, right now a single dollar is equal in value to 1/1290th of an ounce of gold (when pricing dollars in gold).

Again, the dollar can't got to zero. It's impossible.

Did you know that two objects which get closer and closer together until you can see them touching can be mathematically represented to never touch? That's because the fractions representing their distance apart can be made infinitely smaller. But when you look at the objects you know they are touching, despite what the math shows.

It's the same with a crashed currency. The fractional value can become infinitely smaller while never actually hitting zero. But sooner or later the people realize it's no longer worth anything.

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john2k and shanepottermi (post below), you're missing the point

the dollar is priced in other currencies. See dollar index.

When CNBC says the dollar is weaker today, what are they saying? They are pointing to the Dollar Index.

In fact CNBC is confused on their ticker at the top where for some currencies they price the dollar versus that currency dollar/currency, and for others currency/dollar. Why would they confuse investors? Or make them think?

They should also put the Dollar Index up as that is what every trader looks to to see where we are. Why don't they?

China's economy isn't near ready and their GDP numbers are a sham. If you are going to use stats like 50% of the world are going to utilize alternative currencies to the dollar shane, please provide a link. Check out the last survey done by the Bank of International Settlements "The US dollar remained the dominant vehicle currency; it was on one side of 87% of all trades." http://www.bis.org/press/p130905.htm

If you believe the dollar is going to zero, then trade or invest accordingly. Buy the products of Shadowstats and Gerald Celente. They present a compelling story. I'm good with that. Helps my business. I'll keep writing what I believe to be reality.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Its like you are trying to

Its like you are trying to explain simple shit too a child. I understand exchange rates, the dollar index, an how what you are saying doesn't matter. The dollar can fall relative to other currencies without those currencies falling relative to each other. You aren't a guru that is elementary shit. You haven't provided a single shred of evidence to back up your idiotic claim that the dollar can't fall because other currencies will have to rise.. yes rise relative too the dollar not to each other. The survey done by the bank of international settlements has fuckin nothing to do with chinas bilateral trade deals. They are with countries like austrailia, japan, russia, uk, brazil, india, iran.. you know big economies which is where the 50% of world economy are working on bilateral trade deals to bypass the dollar for trade with china. Some are just trial runs to see how well it works. The rembi is setting up the framework for settlement an swaps for trade. Central banks are holding rembi as foreign reserve currency. This doesn't mean the dollar isn't being used.. it means the framework to abandon it as an intermediary between international transactions is being implimented. I'm not going to provide any link what so ever.. a person who is a 'professional' should already know this shit.

Really?

Shane, then write an article about it and open up your genius to the world.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Maybe we are debating

Maybe we are debating different points.

I didn't enter this discussion to debate if the USD is going up, down or to zero. Although I did give you a real example of a major country's currency doing exactly that.

I chimed in because of your statement that it is not possible to go to zero because other currencies would rise to the moon. Literally & mathematically you would be correct, because the fractional value can become infinitely smaller, so it would not hit absolute zero. But how many zeros added to a currency will people tolerate before considering that currency to have a value equivalent to trash?

Even 1920s German Marks still had value beyond zero when people were burning stacks of them for heat in the winter. But I think for most intents & purposes the value of that currency to be used as a currency & not a heat source was pretty much gone at that point.

And other currencies priced in a crashed currency skyrocketing... what else would you expect? Everything priced in a crashed currency skyrockets in price when price is denominated in the crashed currency.

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Understand your point John

But will counter with this; not until we lose our military superiority.

Hey...I created a currency that can't go to zero too... barackazillion.com

Cheers!

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Military superiority didn't

Military superiority didn't prevent the 95%+ crash in the value of our dollar over the past century. I guess that's ok from the gov's perspective, though, since it was an intentional crash.

Holding the world hostage via our military to force use of our currency I don't think is going to be a successful long term strategy to propping up the dollar. Sooner or later all that printing will catch up to us.

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95% loss in value of dollar

john2k,

I've addressed this in a couple articles. A rational person in 1913 didn't just stuff their dollars under a mattress. But if they put it in the bank, they earned interest on it.

Gold does outperform money at a bank sine 1975. http://bit.ly/1rlsM9h

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!

Doug

US dollar - Us dollar hegemony = Big possibility of US dollar going to zero, relatively speaking.

Dollar zero?

Yes DZ...Ron Paul wrote about it in 2006 http://archive.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul303.html

But the dollar is still above 80 on the index.

It's not like I don't keep an eye on it. You wouldn't see real dollar trouble until we fell below 72 IMO. But we keep bouncing off the 78 level and with the world's largest military, I'll take the side of the dollar at present, even though it buys you less and less. So coupling it with some gold is the current trade, despite gold's current downtrend.

But Zero? Not likely anytime soon. The Fed can still print $15 trillion and throw it out there giving the economy some life. They already threw $9 trillion at it and the dollar didn't budge, but got stronger. I know this is lunacy, but you can't ignore it either. Eventually, and I am writing a book about it, the chickens come home to roost if things don't go as planned (when do they?) and before that occurs, I will have written my "all-in" article on gold.

Thanks for the reminder of Ron Paul's article.

Author of Buy Gold and Silver Safely
Next book: Illusions of Wealth - due out soon
Also writing book We the Serfs!