17 votes

Can You Quarantine A 75,000 'Neighborhood' ? It Started Today.

We're about to find out.

West Point, a 'suburb' of Monrovia (Liberian Capital) is (now) under quarantine. Here

Nobody in. Nobody out. 75,000 people. Here
A curfew is being imposed as well on the population 9pm-6am.

Sounds like Marsha Law just came to town... she's not nice.

West Point is a township (the administrative equivalent of a city ward) of the Liberian capital city of Monrovia, located on a peninsula which juts out into the Atlantic Ocean between the Mesurado and Saint Paul rivers. Home to approximately 75,000 people, it is one of Monrovia's most densely populated neighorhoods

The area lacks proper sanitation.[2] The area lacks public toilets[3] and a report by United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that there are four public toilets in the area.[4] Pay toilets exist, but residents cannot afford them, and thus public defecation is common.[4] The beach surrounding West Point is often used a lavatory which creates health hazards as the water is used for drinking and fish from the water are consumed.

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Russian scientists to set up lab in Guinea to fight Ebola

A team of Russian virologists, epidemiologists and bacteriologists is leaving for Africa to organize laboratory diagnosis of the Ebola virus in Guinea.

Russia already has a vaccine against Ebola that has proved to be successful, Semyonov revealed. “We’ll see what will happen next,”

Russia’s Vector State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology based in Koltsovo, in the Novosibirsk region, developed Reaferon-Lipint several years ago. This vaccine proved effective in dealing with Ebola virus during laboratory tests.

Pharmaceutical companies from Canada, Japan and the US have announced development of potential vaccines.

World Health Organization does not expect a reliable vaccine against Ebola fever to be developed before 2015.
http://rt.com/news/181864-russian-virologists-ebola-laborato...

Sounds like Marsha Law just came to town... she's not nice.

^ That was creatively smart lol.

Would hate being a Liberian right about now:

"YOUR CITY IS QUARANTINED. YOU POSSIBLY DIE EBOLA."

I have a stupid fearmongering question

that sort of relates to the efficacy of quarantine.

With chicken pox the virus can one day pop out as shingles which can result in new chickenpox victims.

http://www.cdc.gov/shingles/about/transmission.html

Is there some similar process with ebola survivors?

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/08/21/american-doctor-tre...

I'll take my Liberty, it's not yours to give.

among other things..

well idk if this is what you mean...
There are (now) reported cases of 'recovered' ebola patients being released to then return w/ fever, diarrhea, etc.
so
the whole 'immunity' thing (like w/ chickenpox) is now in question.
Like malaria... it appears it can 'hide'/reside... aka it never completely 'goes away'?
another significant issue includes 'live' virus culture remaining in male sperm for up to 7 months.
The quarantine is the 'best' action... but not a solution.
The 'solution' can only be a cure that works and can be administered in time across populations/outbreaks.
Until then this is all that can be done and it's crude and sad.

Yup, I guess the fact is this cats out of the bag.

Quarantines may delay spread, but it's simply another "life form" with which to contend. "Healed" patients need to monitor themselves until more is known. Hopefully, with time less virulent types will become dominant.

I'll take my Liberty, it's not yours to give.

sounds to me like Liberia

sounds to me like Liberia needs to get their shit together.

ALREADY they can't keep up... Can't Cremate Fast Enough

Not only can't they keep up with Care facilities vs the 'Spread' of infection..
Today was reported:
Monrovian Crematorium is Overwhelmed

On Saturday our team was able to collect up to 41 bodies. On Sunday they collected up to 37 bodies," "The crematorium did not have the capacity to cremate all these bodies, so we had to ... carry them [back] to ELWA (the hospital in the capital). "The next morning we had to make sure to carry these bodies to the crematorium and make sure they were cremated before we could start collecting new ones."

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/08/liberia-overwhe...

So the (collected) dead are approaching almost 50 a day.
Statistically you can (almost) double that daily number for 'new' cases; those now manifesting symptoms.
but
The daily number of 'newly infected' is of course unknown.
and would obviously be ahead of both of those numbers because the WHO infection RATE is currently around 214%.

No kidding

and I assume you really mean their fecal matters...

Marsha Law

I don't get the Marsha Law joke

The Quarantine: A Triage for the Continent?

I think so... this is Central Africa:

10 Deaths now being investigated in the Congo (1976 Ebola site)
Congo does not share a border with any of the countries already known to be affected by the epidemic, so reports of a potential outbreak there are a serious cause for concern.

A medical team was earlier today dispatched to DRC's Equateur province to investigate whether the virus has re-emerged in the area.

'An illness is spreading in Boende [a town in Equateur] but we don't know the origin,'

A professor accompanying the delegation in the presidential plane confirmed that they were en route this morning to find out 'the exact nature of the illness that caused the Boende deaths'.

http://news.yahoo.com/illness-ebola-symptoms-kills-several-c...

more articles

Yes... they're going to make a complete mess of it. (sigh)
and no, I don't expect this on the front page.

►"Help Me!" NYT and Here

I'm not with you on this one

I'm not with you on this one guys! This is where the virus is doing the most damage and quite frankly the area needs to be quarantined even without the virus. Its like living in a cesspool. (Literally)

There are plenty of arguments to be made as to how West Point became a cesspool (including private property vs public land issues, poverty, education and so on) but that's less important at this point. First, the area needs to be quarantined, cleaned, and redeveloped and then once the area is suitable for human habitation then learning from the mistakes of the past will be important.

I hear a ticking noise..

and it's getting louder and louder.

yah...

This (what I've posted) is for Africa ONLY...
and should (at this point) be considered relevant for Africa ONLY...
but
VERY relevant (for them). (I'm talking about the NUMBERS of course.)

What we are witnessing (now) is 'triage' for the entire Continent.
They HAVE to do this.
It's their only chance.

In fact.. there are reports now of 'reinfection'... people released AFTER recovery... experiencing renewed symptoms. Dismal stuff.
------------
edit:
AHHH!!

Looks like I got hit by a sniping philosopher :)
well... since you didn't lock me out of an edit and only dwnvoted me...
what's up???
Haven't you ever heard of an ethical dilemma before?
Oh yes Virginia... they're REAL...
(I pray you never experience one.)
It's simply cognitive dissonance... life's full of it.
In a little while you'll feel right as rain. Have a cookie.
Unless... you can't forget about the children...
then... you grab a bottle... never mind (sigh)...
This (along) with everything wonderful and beautiful needs to be here on the DP.. with no easy solutions.
Its what 'rounds off' our sharp edges... and humbles us.
cheers.
G

There's only 2 'other' positions...

There's only 2 'other' positions left
(other than taking action)

1. There is no problem.
2. There is no solution.

Which one are you?

Like something out of Stephen King..

Residents said they were given no warning of the blockade, which prevented them from getting to work or buying food.

"We just saw it (the blockade) this morning. We came out and we couldn't go anywhere. I haven't heard from anybody in authority what happened," Alpha Barry, 45, who works as a money changer, told Reuters.

"I don't have any food and we're scared," said Barry, who said he was from Guinea and has four children under 13.

Yes... this is a DRASTIC measure

Is it 'Inhumane'?

The June - July rate picked up from 1.86.
The (reported case) rate from July 2nd to Aug 1st is now 2.11 or 211%.

Going over the numbers from the last two reports... If trend stays the same we can expect to see over 3,400 cases by September 1.

The 6 month estimate to control the outbreak from Doctors without Borders is wrong.

1. If they couldn't control 86 cases they won't be able to handle increase of 50+ a day.

2. Even if they managed to slow it and get it under control there would be continued infections from sexual transmission for much longer. If you assume half the survivors are male and the virus can be transmitted in sperm for up to 7 months we can expect to see this continue for much longer.

3. Inability to set up clinics at a rate greater than the spread. It would take a huge effort on the part of multiple countries to be able to come close.

The 2.11 rate is LOW

“Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous Ebola Virus outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9–4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable with that of influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an Ebola Virus pandemic. In answer to the question of why this has not already occurred in human history, perhaps the most persuasive response is that EVD very fortunately only emerged into human populations around the time of its discovery in the mid-1970s (Walshet al., 2005), by which time we were fairly well equipped to deal with it in remote low-population-density settings. Whether we can contain it within a large city, should the necessity to do so arise, remains to be seen.”
http://vir.sgmjournals.org/content/95/Pt_8/1619.full