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The real rate of US inflation

I've just gathered some data from the US bureau of labor statistics.

They track prices for different commodities. I've just done a quick comparison on 14 of the most widely tracked items. Things like a gallon of milk, gallon of gas, loaf of bread, 1 lb of ground beef, 1 lb of chicken, 1 lb of coffee, ETC....

When charted out, those 14 common household goods have shown an average inflation rate of 50% over the last 10 yrs.

This is a far more accurate measurement of actual inflation than the crap their trying to sell us via the CPI, or any of their other under estimated figures as of late.

1 gal Fuel oil 148.95%
1 Gal of gas 128.2%
Loaf of bread 49.37%
1 lb of ground beef 51.53%
1 lb of chicken 40.77%
1 doz eggs 24%
1 gal of milk 26.6%
1 lb apples 36.5%
1 lb oranges 75.28%
1 lb bananas 18.36%
1 lb of tomatoes 10.94%
12 oz orange juice 30.15%
1 lb of coffee 76.31%
1 KW electricity 57.14%
Piped gas per therm 6.22%

check it out for yourselves.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost



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But you're not seeing it the way the BLS sees it.

When the price of Prime Rib gets too high, people buy choice instead.

When that gets too expensive, they buy select.

When that gets too expensive, they buy ground beef.

When that gets too expensive, they buy spam.

When that gets too expensive, they buy vienna sausage and ramen noodles.

When that gets too expensive, people stop eating. (no mention of starving to death)

You see, the BLS says the amount it costs you to live only barely increases every year because you keep buying cheaper stuff when whatever you were used to gets too expensive.

Mind you, this allows them to outright LIE to the public and hide the fact that prices are really, rising very quickly. (or rather that the Federal Reserve Note is collapsing in value)

What you say is true. I have

What you say is true. I have already stopped buying steak. Now I buy hamburger, but only if it is on sale.

I love grilling up

some tasty burgers. Last summer a pound of ground chuck was $3.19 ....this past weekend $5.19 a pound. Pretty much a 40% increase. Must be a cow shortage.

My little hiefer calf is about 400lbs...

and at auction she's worth about $1200-1400!!! There is in fact a US cattle shortage due to severe draught through TX and the southwest, and 2 severe winters up north....then the hail and tornado storms that moved through Nebraska and Iowa earlier this year went right through the feed lots and killed animals by the thousands...I know, I was there during the storms. The cattle gurus estimate that our current cattle population in the US is at it's lowest level since 1958, and that if we didn't slaughter another animal (none, zero, nada), that it would take a minimum of 7 years to reproduce enough cattle to get back to the population we SHOULD have.

------------------
BC
Silence isn't always golden....sometimes it's yellow.

"The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them." - Patrick Henry

Actually, that story is about

Actually, that story is about Australia. I don't think we have a shortage here, at least not in my area.

My Rancher Friends

My Rancher Friends are gathering and selling like crazy because beef is going at auction for over three dollars a pound "on the hoof".

If I disappear from a discussion please forgive me. My 24-7 business requires me to split mid-sentence to serve them. I am not ducking out, I will be back later to catch up.

Shrinkflation

Not only are food prices rising, but the size of most items on supermarket shelves is shrinking.

What once was a pound of coffee now weighs 11 or 12 ounces, and the former half-gallon of ice cream now contains 48 ounces.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/from-chocolate-to-b...

You realize that you are only

You realize that you are only looking at two areas of consumption? Food and energy.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

The two sectors which are the most volatile and likely to see a

price increase.

Also the two you pretty much can't do without. (which is why they are volatile and subject to persistent increases)

"Discounting" them like the BLS does is patently absurd and blantantly fraudulent when trying to determine if it costs more to live now than it did in any previous period.

I don't think it "discounts"

I don't think it "discounts" them as you think it does.

Also, another way of thinking about it...Americans eat more than they ever have, burn more gasoline, use more oil, and pay for more electricity than they ever have. If inflation were that crazy, how can we afford to do that? Either wages are outpacing inflation (which makes sense, since higher wages will lead to more inflation) or inflation isn't that high in the first place.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

Cooked books is how.

Americans are presumed to buy cheaper stuff when what they were buying becomes more expensive.

Yes, in some ways, some things take less "work" to buy. But in others, especially in the short term, (not decades or centuries) food and energy among others ARE more expensive to the extreme side.

And while it does calculate food and energy, it repeatedly reports CPI "not counting food and energy." They rarely report the true number factoring in everything, and if they do, they bury it so you'll never think of it. What enters the public discourse is the cooked number.

Yes, but overall, Americans

Yes, but overall, Americans are just spending more. They are saving more (at least from 2009 to 2013, Americans earned a shitload of money). More is being spent on energy, on food. More energy is being consumed. More food is being farmed. And that money isn't coming from somewhere else; spending is mostly up everywhere.

Also, to your point about short-term swings...that is the biggest difference that independent studies find with the government numbers. This isn't surprising. For example, if you buy a car, there are certain times in the year when it is cheaper, just due to the nature of the business. If you looked at the CPI numbers, it would show constant inflation or deflation throughout the year. They adjust everything.

In regards to environmental factors: Ultimately, the federal reserve and even the federal government can do little about supply shocks. Bad weather is causing drought in California, effecting cattle yields and causing the price of dairy to rise. Bad weather in Turkey is going to cause the price of nuts to increase. These definitely do affect inflation. And yes, for the most part, the CPI does not include these things. They do this for two reasons:

1) They really can't do anything about it
2) In general, overtime, supply shocks tend to resolve themselves. The weather will get better again and the prices of nuts and cheese will resolve. The government numbers don't get influenced either way.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

Ummm...and...?

So what?

Wha? .....hey....who stole my country?

One should look at more

One should look at more things. If you just looked at technology and entertainment, the BLS numbers would look like an overstatement of inflatino.

Check out the billion prices project, http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/, which pretty much shows that the CPI methods used since 1996 are incredibly accurate.

Plan for eliminating the national debt in 10-20 years:

Overview: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/my-plan-for-reducin...

Specific cuts; defense spending: http://rolexian.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/more-detailed-look-a

While technology and entertainment are nice to have

they aren't necessities such as food and energy. That's where inflation hits hardest.

It doesn't really matter that TVs and other electronic toys are cheap if you can't pay for the electricity, does it?

But, but, but, don't you know

But, but, but, don't you know that according to the BL(B)S, food and energy are purely frivolous purchases and therefore do not count toward "core" inflation?

I mean, who are you going to believe, the sociopaths in power or your own lying eyes (and shopping experience)?

PS: Anyone here remember me? I stumbled in here after a four-year absence, and was shocked that I could still log in --- and that I even remembered my old password!

To be fair to the CPI...

You're stating 10 year inflation and the CPI is yearly inflation.

If you compound 2% for 10 years, thats 21%.
3% is 34%.

The CPI even states that for the past 10 years, the index has risen by 25.8%.

So now the comparison is a little more accurate. They do some weird things that adjust prices downward when things get better (meaning if all cars cost 100 dollars in 2000 but 110 dollars in 2010 because they have AC and CD players, there was no inflation because we just are paying for more).

And argue you can with the methodology, but showing that food and fuel increased a little faster than overall inflation is not a secret.

more cost, same money = deflation.

guess I'm lucky my earnings did not deflate during that period, went up 10%, and I just have to use almost the same (40% more) money I had then to buy higher priced food now, while most US citizens, just trying to get by, face 50% higher food prices with less money in pocket than 10 years ago, due to deflation, wage stagnation. Is that not the way to understand this, that if you have the same amount of money, but it buys less, your money is deflated, because costs increased(inflated)?

Big Mac Index!

Shorthand for all inflation is the price of the Big Mac, clocking in at a 65% increase over 10 years, or 5.1% inflation annually.

This is my method, and it is, as nearly as I can tell, extremely accurate.

Author of Shades of Thomas Paine, a common sense blog with a Libertarian slant.

http://shadesofthomaspaine.blogexec.com

Also author of Stick it to the Man!

http://www.amazon.com/Stick-Man-Richard-Moyer/dp/1484036417

Hedonics

That loaf of bread is technologically superior and has greater value than the loaf of bread 10 years ago. Thus, you are getting bread that is 50% higher quality and there is actually deflation.

Duh!

Tu ne cede malis.

Candidates for Liberty Webpage:
http://candidates4liberty.com/home.html

2016 Liberty Candidate Thread:
http://www.dailypaul.com/329012/2016-liberty-candidate-thread

The nutritional value of a loaf of bread today is

no where NEAR what it was 100 years ago. (or even more recently)

Some would argue it shouldn't even be called 'bread' any longer.

You don't have to convince us

You don't have to convince us old people. I used to buy gas for 27 cents a gallon. The first time the gas pump hit 50 dollars when I filled up I got a real sick feeling in my stomach.

I remember 0.19 per gal or 2 silver dimes

Those silver dimes will still buy a gallon of gas today.

Yesterday I filled up costing $64 and today I filled up again costing $118, I drive a lot in the fall. Have to keep my produce stand stocked up. Used to sell honey too, until Monsatan decided to kill off all the bees in this area.

Surviving the killing fields of Minnesota

Todays brainwashing: GMO's are safe

More than likely...

You are referring to Bayer, Syngenta or BASF. Not defending Monsanto as they have their own list that far outpaces these other assholes.

Wha? .....hey....who stole my country?

It all started with Monsatan

but your right Bayer got clothianidin fraudulently on to the market place and Syngenta does make it. Monsatan's seed companies sell most of the seed in this area, or at least around my place.

I find it amazing that all these companies as well as the EPA knew in advance clothianidin was going to kill off the honey bees, but they released it anyway.

I think we are on the verge of witnessing the extinction of the Monarch butterfly, I give them 2 more years.

Surviving the killing fields of Minnesota

Todays brainwashing: GMO's are safe

gas wars in Tucson, 1961, gas

gas wars in Tucson, 1961, gas going for 19 cents/gallon

Look at all that wasted time.

Look at all that wasted time. Wages didn't cover the spread so it essentially equals lost time for people. You had to use more of your time for less. Money is simply your stored time. When the government takes this time from you via inflation you become a slave. Add in income tax and these pricks really have us by the balls. I'm tired of giving my time for crap I don't believe in. Imagine working less for more.

END THE FED!

"To ski powder is to waste it" - Jake Burton

Phxarcher87's picture

END

THE
FED
!

THE CLASS OF CITIZENS WHO PROVIDE AT ONCE THEIR OWN FOOD AND THEIR OWN RAIMENT, MAY BE VIEWED AS THE MOST TRULY INDEPENDENT AND HAPPY.
James Madison

Thank you brother (or sister), well said.

I wish a few unsuspecting people actually COULD get a chance to put their hands on every penny of their earnings, and get a small taste of it. It might make them hungry; for freedom.