My email response to the question "Do you Believe we are safer having gone to Iraq?"

This is probably the longest email I have ever written, please read and tell me what you think.
Hi Greg,

Sorry for the delay I went out of town for the remainder of the day. I believe asking if we are safer having gone into Iraq is a difficult question to answer. It depends on how you define safe. I believe that engaging in a doctrine of preemptive war is not safe. The simple fact of the matter is that you or I, by paying a finite sum of money could lower the chances of our own deaths. For example one could buy a Volvo (rated the safest car) or a Ford F450 over say a PT Cruiser which would statistically make us less likely to die. Unfortunately, in more cases than not, even when one may have the means to do so, they tend to not make the investment. Think of how many people smoke vs. quit. One could drive instead of fly to a destination if he fears flying. But driving is statistically a more dangerous proposition. Let me give one more example of a famous case to show you where I am going with this. Ford decided not to install a $13 block of plastic which would prevent it's Pinto cars from exploding in a rear-end collision. Ford estimated such a move would cost 200 lives a year at a cost of $200,000 per life lost. They multiplied and found that it wasn't worth it to install the plastic block.
When the public found out... They were outraged. But this raises an ethical question. What if the plastic block cost $400 a piece. Would it then be justifiable as the sheer cost would have made the company take massive losses? What is a human life worth? Who defines this? How can we know how many lives are saved? Why does one require others to keep one safe when they don't even purchase health insurance? Now for a conceptual jump:
Let's say that the war on terror has saved 50,000 lives. It has cost about 1 Trillion Dollars. Not to mention something like 5,000 US lives and even more civilian lives from collateral damage. The 2000 census tells me that there are 280,000,000 people living in the USA. Let's pretend that they all pay taxes. That's about $3500 per person plus about .00002 dead US soldiers per person. The annual death rate in the US is about 8%, which is about 16 Million people. Let's say half of them die from old age and not cancer or heart disease. that's 8 million and that is a very conservative figure for this case. Now subtract that by 50,000 people saved with the war on terror. This makes the percentage difference of unnatural deaths about .5%. So in short, the war on terror has decrease my chances of dying by .5% and it is probably less than that. Then take into account the fact that I live in the high profile terrorist target of Swainsboro, GA and this will drop even more. So is it worth it? Am I safer? I don't know. I could probably decrease my chance of death significantly by obeying the speed limit or not eating at McDonalds frequently. Having a job with a shorter commute, staying away from second hand smoke, paying for regular health exams. All these things don't cost anyone anything outside of myself. Then your next question would probably be "Well what if the war on terror saved 2 million lives by intercepting a nuke destined for Atlanta?" Is that a different argument? No, at that point you are not arguing ethics, only price per person saved or price per percent of safety given to you. The reality is your question is much more convoluted that it seems at first. What is making you less likely to die worth? What if it's someone else is making you safe? How much should it cost them to make you safe? These are very hard questions. Now considering all of this in the scope of the entire war on terror; what about Iraq alone. Given that there was no link to the 9/11 attacks (terror) nor any Al Qaeda presence in Iraq prior to our invasion. Nor have we found the WMDs. Now we have Al Qaeda in Iraq, plus since the invasion Al Qaeda's ranks have grown. Now that we are Occupiers and not Liberators good will from the Iraqis is no doubt waning. Most of the accounts I get is that we are tolerated at best. Our war has caused the deaths or maiming of many Iraqis. This does not instill good will despite the overthrow of their despot. Other results of our occupation of Iraq are as unpredictable as a total withdrawal and it's unforeseen consequences. Most of all our war has caused our Economy to weaken, as all wars tend to. It may be a harsh realization that Osama has stated this as a tactic, the exact one he used on the Russians in Afghanistan. The war and our economy are completely intertwined. So with our economy weakening and enemy recruitment on the rise, I would have to say that I do not feel any safer due to the war in Iraq. When the trade towers come down and people die we all take an emotional hit, many have been lost but many more are spared. When an Economy comes down some are spared but many are lost. As a Swainsboro (low terror risk) resident, I am reminded especially of this quote by David Walker the Comptroller General of the GOA (The Head Accountant for the USA):
“I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Afghanistan or Pakistan but our own fiscal irresponsibility,” - David Walker, Comptroller General
If you want to see an interview with him click here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS2fI2p9iVs
or here on Glenn Beck's TV show:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-16u9x3tfE
I am truly sorry that this is as long as it is... But you asked... and I wanted to answer the question for myself just as much as to you. It was interesting to work through the numbers.

In Closing: Many people think that we must stay [in Iraq] either a) because we have to fix what we broke or b) to maintain safety for us all. I believe that the benefits reaped from b) do not exceed the price... As shown in the above scenario this is not a quantifiable answer, only my opinion. In regards to a) This is sheer economics as well. How much is every American willing to pay to clean up the mess? Are we the best equipped to repair the mess? If there will be chaos and bloodshed upon our withdrawal how much are we willing to pay to prevent it? How much is an American or Iraqi life worth? Is an American soldier worth more to Americans than an Iraqi civilian? That answer is unequivocally yes! Right? A soldier cost X to train and has productive potential inside of the USA throughout their lifespan. Not to mention a family! If we remain in Iraq for many more years and factor in the funding to bomb and rebuild infrastructure and lives there may come a time where, monetarily, we have more invested in the Iraqi people than our own soldiers. So perhaps "No" will some day be the answer to that last question. Who knows?! Then, at that time, how can we leave behind our investment? I will close with this one prediction. I believe that if we do not leave now from Iraq, we will never leave as long as you or I live unless ousted by force of arms or economies.

This is an interesting time we live in. Full of life or death decisions all dwelling in shades of gray with very unclear consequences. I will once again say that I am going to stick with the guy that time and time again through his thirty year career stood for what he believed was right and in many cases was [right]. There have been acts solicited by our government in the past decade that are now widely viewed as mistakes. Ron Paul stood against all of them in their inception not by clairvoyance but by simply following the laws laid forth for our land so long ago. I beg you to take these things into consideration before you vote.
Most Sincerely,
Rich Clarke