For All Those Who Wish for a Brokered Convention
Put down your pom poms and take a look around. McCain will win the nomination OUTRIGHT within the month. If NOT, Romney will be a resonable second....HUCKABEE in third.
HUCKABEE will be the "king-maker" in a hypothetical (it hasn't happened in fourty years!!!) "brokered" convention. Huckabee and his supporters have demonstrated tonight that they will support McCain, so IF McCain lacks delegates after the first vote, Huckabee will provide enough for him to win.
Ron Paul will be lucky to get ANY speech time at the convention. Can you all not see that the establishment Republican party will destroy AT ALL COSTS Ron Paul and what he stands for? If not, you SERIOUSLY need to rethink exactly what the Ron Paul philosophy of LIBERTY really means and how it MANIFESTS in reality.
We are talking about no less that a total upheaval of all our current society takes for granted. ALL establishment, Republican and Democrat, will fight to the death to maintain the status quo.
A THIRD PARTY RUN will extend the campaign, allow for education of the sheeple, and will give more time for otherwise smart voters in the independent and disgruntled categories to investigate whar Ron Paul really offers.
This is a revolution for the COUNTRY, not just the PARTY.
Republicans that hate McCain will look anew at a Ron Paul candidacy. Democrats hating Clinton will look to Ron Paul. I personally know people in BOTH of these camps.
"Winning" is irrelevant at this point.....let's at least sow the seeds for the reaping of the revolution in four years. Ron Paul WILL NOT RUN four years from now (he will be 76 years old!), so drop the party responsiblility sh*t, please.
Look, I sincerely wish the time was NOW... but it appears not to be so. We need to pursue the BEST path towards making it POSSIBLE to save this country in future elections, should ther be anything left worth saving. A THIRD PARTY RUN, NOW, is that path.
DO THe MATH ! ! ! !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008
McCain is the only Candidate that can win the nomination - he currently has 600 delegates, Romney 250, and Huckabee 160 . There are only 988 delegates left, so it is mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win outright, Romney has to get over 95% percent of the delegates to win, which is also impossible.
To broker the convention, McCain needs to get less than 55% of the remaining delegates. According to the polls he is currently close to doing this.
Now the question is, Will Romney and Huckabee even try to Broker the convention ? I will be suprised if they do, because it will serve no purpose, and will damage them politically for future races. Even if they do, it will be very close, and the party bosses will step in to keep that from happening.
I have to agree with the OP.
I have to agree with the OP. You guys are forgetting about needing to win 5 states and/or territories. It's become obvious that the establishment is keeping that from happening. There's been what now, like 3 or 4 states we should have WON, that we got screwed in?
We can't fight this establishment right now. Not enough nationwide support yet.
I'm not exactly sure what to do right now, but I do agree that 3rd party is our best chance at continuing the education of the masses.
And I ALSO have seen plenty of people say they will vote RP out of protest for McCain, or Hillary.
I'm willing to bet there are a lot of Obama supporters that would rather vote RP then Hillary.
Maybe he ought to...
Answer
They are loyal to the republican party because they are republicans trying to take the party back. Unlike some of us that are independents looking to take our country back.
That is why so many are champion for brokered convention and so many others are suggesting third party.
The independents such as myself, see a winner in Dr Paul and we want him to continue outside of the shameful republican party so we can work hard gathering independent voters to the voting booths in November.
We independents have a lot of work to do to convience the Ron Paul Republicans to abandon their party and join us.
This is also why they attack us Ron Paul independents, as giving up on the good ole boy RNC is asking way too much!!!!!!!!1
WAKE UP AMERICA
KT
KT
Why are so many rp supporters being loyal to
this republican party? At the national and local levels they have proven their neocon allegance. To be considered at the convention a candidate must deliver five states. We cannot. Their are powerful superdelegates to stop us. To think we are going to reform this party by Sept. is not realistic. When its obvious the republican voters prefer McCain, Romney, and Huckabee to Dr. Paul, it becomes time to take our momentum to both the Libertarian and Constitution camps. He already is favored there and the platforms only need tweeking not pulled. Ron Paul will be in a more favorable position to gain Obama supporters, many independents, and undecided voters. These established parties will ensure Paul is on the ballot in nearly all 50 states. The rp supporters who maxed out can now start donating again. We will have much more support and intensity to ensure rp is in all the debates. The 18-45 year olds are the majority of voters. They are also internet users. By harnessing coldfusion's idea of pay-per-click promotion, we can more effectively spread rp's message. We need to stop wasting energy on trying to convert/educate old heads. They represent the minority and are too brainwashed to change. Let's go where we are welcome and continue the fight. Get this message to campaign headquarters soon. Dr. Paul must make this decision by months end. This could be the adrenelin we all need to recharge the rEVOLution.
"Be wary of those who know the truth. Align yourself with those who are questing for the truth." L. Gardner
Come on!
With 4 republicans running, it's almost impossible for one person to get 51% of the vote in the National Convention.
If no one receives 51% of the vote in the FIRST vote, then EVERY delegate is free to vote for who they want in the 2nd vote. Half of all committed delegates are Ron Paul supporters. Which means, RP will get MORE than 51% in the 2nd vote.
And on top of that, most states have both committed and non-committed delegates, which further prevents FOUR people from getting 51% of the vote on the first time around.
It's not over.
It aint over till the fat lady sings
And she hasn't sung yet.
Rational
1) No one has won. The rules are difficult and vary from state to state and the actual delegate count is impossible say at this point with accuracy.
2) In most states the delegates have not even been awarded (Caucus states)
3) In some of the primaries the delegates are bound to the first round in some several. This will come to play in a brokered convention.
4) Delegates can not be handed over in case of a drop-out in most cases
5) Iowa republicans wont vote for McCain even though Huckabee would ask them to do so. I think this applies to many others as well.
6) The delegates won in winner-take-all primaries may be for the guy who won but likely not. If not bound in the second round anything can happen.
This campaign is so much more than just who wins and who loses. This is about the 10% of people who have now woken up to this disaster that is todays politics with is biased media and clones for a candidate.
I think we should ride this one out and spread the message as long as we can - if this day isn't victorious maybe the next one will be as now Ron Paul Republicans are force to reckon with.
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great explanation, all we need to do is get him to St. Paul and he has a chance
The big gotcha
of a brokered convention is that Paul CANNOT be at the bottom of the first ballot. The loser of each ballot is eliminated and then the second roll call is made. If Paul is #4 after the first - it's all over anyway.
BUT...
well IF this is true then you have to remember there will be more than 4 candidates with delegates at the convention...guiliani, hunter, and thompson each have 2 or 3 delegates and they will come in below RP in the first round of voting.
I did NOT know this. If true, then we don't want convention
If this is true, then we only want Ron Paul in the Republican race for the next month or two for coverage and for getting the chance to tweak the message to be more about specific unconstitutional laws that McCain passed and which were overturned by the courts.
Then he would accept a fusion ticket Libertarian/Constitution at the Memorial Day Convention for the LP.
Third Party v. Independent
I would think that a run as an independent would make more sense and make people that don't know him more receptive to listening. As far as media coverage, he isn't getting that as a Republican anyway. He will need to make use of the internet, buy his own air time, and count on his supporters to help get the message out.
Cannot run as third party/independent because he will lose his congressional seat? Not to be offensive, but he is a ten term congress and 72 years old. I would think it's President now or nothing. He cannot change anything in congress by himself or he already would have, and he cannot expect to run again at 76.
A brokered convention? Really, you think the same people that have kept Ron Paul on the fringes cannot handle that one? Romney, McCain, and Huckabee can be made to agree to anything with a little personal incentive. This is just another reason the independent route makes sense. His own party his working against him. At least, he will not be in the odd position of trying to defend himself against attacks from his "own".
Ron Paul has said, if you have to go to war; declare war and fight to win. I say it is time to declare war on the Republican party, not appease it.
What makes you think
this is appeasement? I see it as war. A war for the soul of the party to take it back from the neo-cons (old democrats).
reply
I feel your pain my Randian brother, it's like the old adage (there is the way things should be and the way they really are). Dr. Paul is convinced the convention will be a brokered one and he said so in his campaign press release from last week Monday Jan 28. He also will not run a 3rd party campaign this year because he is also running for Congressional re-election, it is just not going to happen. Suck as it may seem we can either play it Ron's way or bail, there is no other dish to pass at the table. That said I agree with you that Huckabee is in a great bargaining position now so it will be interesting to see how that plays out, but I disagree that Dr. Paul wouldn't consider another go at it in 2012 because his legacy is just now really coming of age.
No complaints
Today went exactly as I expected. I'm not disappointed in the least. If Paul runs third party he will disappear. The reason he's gaining so much new attention is because he's on the national stage. He can only do this where he is at now. And to speak at the national convention will give him coverage he would NEVER get running third party. When was the last time you watched a third party convention speech on ABC or CNN? That's right, never. If Paul wins or not makes absolutely no difference to me. For me this is an investment in my kids future. It's about the cause, not the person.
Never give up! Never
Never give up! Never surrender!
...
I wanna know is he even serious
If he's not serious then drop out people have wasted a lot of money He's not gonna get anymore donations People who are willing to donate money could donate to someone who is willing to do what is necessary to win instead of just sitting there at debates letting people ignore him I'll give Huck credit he did stand up for himself .I like Ron Paul I would vote for him but I'm not gonna support him unless he is actually serious and anymore he doesn't look like he is .I don't agree with everything he says but the few things I do I support him for it I could have voted for Romney
no sweat My biggest concern is this invasion and Obama or Clinton getting into the White house
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent" Thomas Jefferson
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent" Thomas Jefferson
If you really support Ron Paul
You cannot support anyone else. No one else is honest. Ron Paul is the only one who has been honest. If not Ron Paul, then what does it matter, Mitt Obama Hillary Huck???
Does no one
realize how sick this type of thinking is...meaning you are either with us or against "us." What the hell? And who gave people permission to stand on a pedestal. Because others cannot deal with reality is a problem for you people. Stop badgering other people who want to operate within the realm of reality. You want to live in fantasy, believe it is 1776 or whatever, get a moist towel.
That's fine, but if they
That's fine, but if they aren't with us, why are they here? Take it somewhere else and take the deadweight off the forums.
Exactly,
politicians will be politicians. Huckabee will sacrifice his chance to McCain and will become VP nom. This way they both gain power. McCain is a power obsessed freak. Huckabee wants power too. That's what will happen. I mean in some ways being the actual President is last important in recent history. The executive branch is part oligarchy. Huckabee becomes VP with the idea that he will have power. This is what will probably happen with a lack of a winner. The say situation will occur with Romney if he is more promising.
Remember also
to those are saying trust in Paul, he ran for Senate with Synder and lost. I think it would be cool for what they are hoping but it doesn't seem likely. Running for election in the House of Representative is really very different to running for Senate or President.
Trust in Paul, and keep your powder dry!
I will stand by Dr. Paul. Whatever he wants to do, Republican or third party, my loyalty is to him. Dr. Paul has sacrificed so much for his country, and all he asks from us is money, time and patience. It ain't over until the (politically incorrect, excuse it this one time please) fat lady sings! And no one has heard her even warming up yet.
ditto for me
Why do so many people scream, rant and rave 3rd party on this forum as if we have a the ability to make that choice here. GEEZ COME ON PEOPLE! I'll follow Ron wherever he leads.
because WE ARE THE LEADERS
WE created this movement. WE supported it. WE will benefit from it. WE will suffer if it fails.
"When the people lead, the leaders will follow" - Ben Harper
"Luctor et Emergo" - Struggle and Emerge
I realize you have some
I realize you have some entitlement issues with this campaign, but even though our presence and support gives fuel and energy to Ron's candidacy, we do not own him. He decided to run for President, he decided to put his life on hold and literally on the line. We (every single one of us) decided to support him in some way or other because he is saying something that is our own truth. We individually own that. If Ron makes or does not make it as president that is "his" destiny in which we can rejoice (or not). The message is alive no matter what. I feel your fear and urgency too! I want him to win more than you know but I can only do my part and send him all the loving prayers (good thoughts) to help him with his choices.
Becoming a delegate
is of the most importance. It is more important than voting for Ron on your primary date, but also important to vote for him. Doesn't matter who wins your state, if your a delegate supporting RP you get to vote for him in the National conventions second round. You may not be a RP delegate in the first round, but you are in the second round.
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"Ehhh, What's ups Doc?" B.Bunny "Scwewy Wabbit!"E. Fudd
People's Awareness Coalition: Deprogramming Sequence
MATH
I understand your comment, but the math is off. The delegates MUST be COMMITTED. Only a small number of delegates are committed. Even if two guys drop and endorse the last CFR standing--it doesn't matter. There is still a brokered convention. The endorsement does not mean that the candidates delegates are automatically switched. They are in fact free to vote however they wish.
Ron understands how this all works--and it looks like he is correct thus far. It will be nearly impossible for any single candidate to get 51% of the delegates after today.
This is very difficult to understand until you really get your head around it a few times. It's almost as hard as figuring out how the Federal Reserve works.
What makes you think...
...that Ron Paul secretly has 1191 committed supporters going to the national convention? During the primaries/caucuses, a potential delegate often has to indicate the candidate they support....it is partly upon this that people vote for delegates to go to the national convention....hence the idea of them REPRESENTING the people back home.
Ron does not understand how it all works any better that us, he is hoping. Not a bad thing, but not something mathematics is based upon.
So, McCain has 600+/- after today. Romney 300. Huckabee 100. Another 1000 available in the next month +. McCain needs 600+/- to win BEFORE a second vote. Romney already suggesting he might drop out.
"nearly impossible"?????? - how about likely.
"Luctor et Emergo" - Struggle and Emerge
Exactly,
If Ron Paul tells me the Brokered Convention is the way to go then so be it, he knows how the system works, who knows more of how evil the establishment is He's obviously knows how to win after all he's been a 10 term soon to be 11 term congressman in TX, his intellects is superb. Bottom Line: I trust Ron Paul and his decisions and I will ultimately follow him down any path he chooses He is my General and I remain loyal to him and Trust him. I only wish more ppl trusted in Ron Paul. tisk tisk
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"We, the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow men who pervert the Constitution." Abraham Lincoln
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"We, the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution, but to overthrow men who pervert the Constitution." Abraham Lincoln
Amen!
In Christ,
Dave
www.lionandlambministry.com
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Grace be to you, and peace, from God our Father, and from the Lord Jesus Christ.
In The LORD Jesus Christ;
Dave
"where the Spirit of the LORD is, there is liberty." 2 Cor. 3:17
http://www.lionandlambministry.com