The Revolution is Going to a Brokered Convention - McCain Can't Win Enough Delegates
For anyone calling for a 3rd party run, hold your horses.
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/02/national-delegate-...
This was updated this morning at 6:15 AM
Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)
Candidate Delegates
Mike Huckabee 190
John McCain 613
Ron Paul 14
Mitt Romney 269
Total 1,086
1,191 - 613 = 578 delegates short
McCain is NOT going to pick up 578 delegates any time soon.
Super Tuesday was his best shot at winning the nomination, and he didn’t even come close.
How is McCain going to afford to keep his campaign functioning? He has no more money, and has no conservative base support.
So what states are left that are rich in delegates?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080124/ap_on_el_pr/super_tuesda...
Feb. 12: 116 Republican delegates, including 63 in Virginia and 37 in Maryland.
March 4: 256 Republican, including 137 in Texas and 85 in Ohio.
May 6: 96 Republican, including 69 in North Carolina.
_____________________
Let’s do the math….
McCain has 613 delegates + states I think he will win
Maryland 37
Ohio 85
613 + 37 + 85 = 735
Let’s say McCain takes Texas and Virginia…
735 + 137 + 63 = 935
McCain is still 256 delegates short, and this delegate count is assuming these states are winner take all, but some are not. Even if McCain picks up North Carolina, he will still be 187 votes.
We are going to a brokered convention.
There is no possible way for John McCain to pick up the 1,191 necessary delegates to secure the GOP nomination.
Ron Paul will speak to the nation in St. Paul, MN.
He will have a national platform to introduce himself to America.
The old media cannot rig his speech. Ron Paul will use this national stage to launch the revolution into the stratosphere and take back the Republican Party.
The revolution has won a MAJOR victory.
The worst possible scenario:
The worst possible scenario:
John McCain announces that the Terminator will be his running mate.
No brokered convention, and if there is one - RP: terminated.
If Hiltlary wins the democratic nomination:
Hitlary: terminated.
If Obama wins the democratic nomination:
Obama will be terminated.
If they decide to run together:
They will both: terminated.
What makes you think that McCain will not ask the Terminator to run along side him? And what makes you think that the American people won't fall for it?
The blueprint for 100+ years of war enforced, a draft, and a NAU. Oh my!
All of us:terminated.
Lol wouldn't that be some
Lol wouldn't that be some thing, neither of them are natural born citizens lol.
Pennsylvania
Has 74 delegates
R3VOLUTION....gonna be a
R3VOLUTION....gonna be a BROKEred convention if you don't donate now!
Trust in God, but tie your camel tight.
"Socialism needs two legs on which to stand; a right and a left. While appearing to be in complete opposition to one another,they both march in the same direction." - Paul Proctor
Only three winner take all states left
A Brokered convention is in the math!
1,191 delegates are needed to win. 1,142 delegates out of 2,380 have already been pledged. McCain is still over 600 delegates short. There are 22 states left to vote. The good news is that only three are winner take all (Virginia, D.C., and Vermont). That means the worst of the winner take all is over.
The key is to stop McCain from hitting the magic number of 1,191. The Paul campaign knew this a long time ago. The Huckabee people are waking up to it. The Romney people had been hoping to avoid it, as they are better connected in the business and Mormon worlds than inside the Beltway, and I can see him dropping out when he gets tired of pouring more of his fortune into the race as he is rapidly running out of states where he has personal connections (Michigan, Massachusetts) or relatively high Mormon populations (Utah, Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota). In fact, the only state where he will be a lock is Idaho (in which Paul will also do quite well), and maybe Nebraska and South Dakota. He’ll probably spit the delegates pretty easily with the “big three” in Texas (where Paul will also be a factor), Ohio, possibly even North Carolina, and boy will everybody be giving a lot of attention to Pennsylvania when it rolls around. Oh, and I am forecasting that Romney drops out of the race (or at the very least does poorly in a brokered convention setting). So them who gets his delegates? Not Huckabee, and not McCain because both of them are anathema in the eyes of a Romney devotee, especially since the pair are perceived as conspiring against him. Plus to the degree that his delegates are Mormons, who are well known to be very libertarian leaning, Dr. Paul could really pull a shocker.
Out of the winner take all states, McCain probably takes Vermont (17 delegates) and certainly D.C. (19 delegates). Virginia (63 delegates) is probable at this point, but not a lock. If the conservative vote coalesces around either Huckabee or Romney, things could break either way.
The prospects get a little dimmer for McCain after the winner take all states. McCain can only win states that go blue in general elections for the most part. So he will probably do very well in Maryland, Rhode Island, Oregon, and Hawaii. In all likelihood he’ll win (but probably not as smashingly) New Mexico, Wisconsin, and
Huckabee will certainly win Mississippi, and he has a good shot in Kentucky as well. After that the states he wins gets nebulous. This is good news for Paul, who has arguably underperformed in southern states. He’ll also do okay in Kansas, and could at least pull his proportional share in Texas, Nebraska (which is very Iowa-esque), Indiana, Ohio, and maybe North Carolina.
*Ron Paul already has at least 42 delegates. We need to remain positive RIGHT AWAY so that he doesn’t lose traction in upcoming states very soon where he may pick up more (Washington, Louisiana, etc.)
**IF WE CAN GET TO A BROKERED CONVENTION, ALL BETS ARE OFF!! Abraham Lincoln became the nominee after walking in with virtually no delegates, and eventually taking 39% of a four contestant vote.
A Brokered convention is in the math!
Thank you for this excellent
Thank you for this excellent analysis...especially for pointing out the fact that the vast majority of winner take all states are finished.
Funny how McCain will win the blue states...
I also believe Romney will soon bow out, and many Romney voters AND DELEGATES will swing to Ron Paul because they will be free to vote for anyone they want to come convention time.
Ron's plan for a brokered convention is working. This was his plan, so I suggest sticking to it and dismiss talk of running as a third party candidate until he says otherwise. Ron has led us this far, and we are on right on target. He's going to let the other candidates exhaust their finances for a little bit longer until he drops a massive VP bomb.
The revolution has just started.
Good Post ZOO and good
Good Post ZOO and good management of your string... was glad to help a bit below... Night all
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Majority of Delegates in 5 States Needed
Hate to break this to everyone, but in order to qualify as a candiate to the RNC you need to have a majority of delegates from 5 states. As far as I know, we don't have a majority in any at the moment.
This is from the GOP's websiste:
You a TROLL? You say the
You a TROLL? You say the truth but these RULES apply ONLY at the CONVENTION......... READ THE WHOLE THING!!! BEFORE AND AFTER.. ITS the CONVENTION PROTOCOL
http://www.gop.com/About/Rules31-41.htm
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
The WHOLE thing RULE NO.
The WHOLE thing
RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.
(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall declare that the candidate has been nominated.
(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.
(f) For the 2004 Republican National Convention, notwithstanding any other provision of these rules or any Rule of the House of Representatives, it shall be in the discretion of the Chair to suspend the roll call conducted to nominate the candidate for President of the United States at any time in order to conduct other Convention business under the established order of business.
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Not a Troll
Just trying to get the facts straight. So if I understand you correctly, as long as we win over uncommitted delegates in order to have a majority in five states AT the convention, we can become a nominee.
With so many states having bound delegates, how many states are left where this would be possible?
How do you read it? In
How do you read it? In Context?
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
They Convene...They Role
They Convene...
They Role Call...
They Vote to nominate....
Nominees Speak....
They Re-vote
You have a winner one way or the other until you get majority vote... Revote revote revote.. this is the barganing time...
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Nominating Candidates
I read the whole thing through but I still don't understand it. So is there an initial vote to nominate candidates, and then after the candidates are nominated, there is a second vote to select between the nominees?
Simply explained:The
Simply explained:
The Convention convenes.. and the states nominate (usually all remaining in the party get nominated). The nominees speak for 15 minutes. Then a vote is cast. If no one gets 51%, then a re-vote is cast. This is just like the Dem's process in Iowa.. If your candidate sucked-out, the others try to convice you to vote for thier candidate. This is done until someone gets 51%. This is another reason why RP wants us to hang around after the state primary and caucus voting in order to elect or get elected as a delegate.. Understand yet? :o)
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Nomination
Ok, got it. It sounds like you still need to have 5 states back you in order to be nominated for any given round, right?
Correct, Now your other post
Correct but first round only, Now your other post I will have to investigate tomarrow.. Im snoozy its almost 12am:
Out of the 2,380 delegates sent to St. Paul - 1,729 of them will be bound in some formal way (this figure excludes Ohio, Washington, North Carolina, and the Virgin Islands, whose delegates are "morally bound," "unofficially bound," or "requested" to vote for their candidate). These break down in the following way:
- 463 delegates will be bound through the convention.
- 565 delegates will be bound through one ballot. That is, they have to follow the results of the state election on the first ballot. After that, if no candidate has a majority of delegates, they are free to vote as they please.
- 383 will be bound through two ballots.
- 318 will be bound through three ballots.
Real Clear I dont trust but I will investigate.. Thanks
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Once nominated.. your always
Once nominated.. your always a nominee.. Go to wikipedia and search brokered convention for some additional historical , or histerical, tid-bits.. Nighty all...
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Once the delegates are at
Once the delegates are at the convention they ARE NOT BOUND to thier prior vote in the state Caucus or Pirmary. Read the rules again..
Tim
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
Simply explained:The
Simply explained:
The Convention convenes.. and the states nominate (usually all remaining in the party get nominated). The nominees speak for 15 minutes. Then a vote is cast. If no one gets 51%, then a re-vote is cast. This is just like the Dem's process in Iowa.. If your candidate sucked-out, the others try to convice you to vote for thier candidate. This is done until someone gets 51%. This is another reason why RP wants us to hang around after the state primary and caucus voting in order to elect to get elected as a delegate.. Understand yet? :o)
Tim
Active/Reserves/Retired
Join the
Military for Ron Paul meet-up Group
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
LOL
These people seem to forget that the only subject that our kids are not brainwashed in is math. Everyone in thei country can do math. This could be their undoing not telling us that 2+2=3
broken convention
I keep hearing about broken convention which look like it could be but i read some other threads that say a candidate must win minimum majority of 5 states or they can't be included in the convention. what is that all about? if he doesn't win 5 states then he can have all the delegates he wants he won't be included in the convention. can anyone elaborate on this a little more
It is called a brokered
It is called a brokered convention, fyi.
AP NEWS McCon has 707 delegated
AP News is reporting that Mccain now has 707 delegates. Is this true?
It is not!!!
Do you trust the media?
Sooner Or Later This Will Happen: A Blind Poll
The power -brokers will do a blind poll of positions between candidates and find out that only Ron Paul's positions can beat the Democrats. (That's what was already shown in a previous blind poll.)
Then they'll pressure somebody to drop out for the good of the party and give Ron Paul his delegates and go from there.
IMissLiberty
IMissLiberty
Ok I think I see where everyone is confused
In the winner take all states you have an election and you have a caucus. The election only decides who all the delegates for that state are forced to vote for. At the caucus it is to decide the individuals that will be forced to vote for the winner. If you notice Mcstain has won alot of the winner take all states. But! Who are the individuals? At the caucus each candidate selects a slate. This is a list of people that will be voted on for each candidate. The slate is hand picked by each candidates people. So your job is to push that slate to the top of the hill. We all know the team with the most people at the bottom will normally win this type of contest. However in a winner take all state this is a little diffrent. See Right now Ron Paul has 40 or 50 Delegates right. Wrong! He is only aloud to start with 40 or 50 right now. His team is actually much much bigger. In a winner take all state Ron Paul's Team members ar forced to push the ball for McCain at the beginning. If they can force enough people from other candidates to be forced to help McCains team in the beginning then he wins through mass force. In other word they assume if the bottom of the Hill is surrounded by all McCains people whether they be self appointed or by force then there is no room for the other team to even get to the ball to compete. Therefore McStain wins the game right off. but We are getting to the point to where noone can dominate the bttom of the hill. This forces a secound vote after this all individuals are free to push the ball up the hill for whoever they wish to it becomes a free for all also they are aloud to recruit members of other teams as they push. As they go up the hill and start running out of room people of one team might have to make a deal to stay in the game. In other words the strongest team will begin to absorb the weaker team members of the other teams. (when I say weaker I really mean the smarter ones will get converted). It will be a mass forced education game at this point. See Mcstain is fighting with our delegats right now. He has nothing. In the end McCain will not even matter When the secound round comes all that will be standing there for him will be his 200 year old mom. It will only take one little push and shes out. Its Huckabee that you have to worry about not mitt. Mitt has bought all his delegates and brought out the mormans. The mormans are not as big as the trinitarian church. They will not be as strong as the trinitarian chruch. Most of America cast their vote in a trinitarian church. These churches know how many people come out of their precint every year and they know how many people to send to the caucus according to how many people show up to vote in each county. Why do you think the churches do online polls on their sites. They gauge the competition. They collect names, addresses, phone numbers, and e-mails. They just like business and government see the benefits in storing personal information on individuals. This is why they can't endorse Ron Paul they can only choose one guy. They also want to change laws to suite their cause. It's not a new thing the catholic church did the very same thing back in 2nd century. This is why when they read this site and people are all down in the dumps and talking like their all defeated it makes them all feel good. It builds them up. This is what they want for you to get your apathy back and just give up and give in. We have alot of caucuses coming up we need oodles and goodles and gobs of people to show up to be delgats at the county caucuses we need an army to push our slate up the hill then we can set back and watch the ruggby show at home on TV and laugh our butts off as they go up the hill. Everyone bring your grandma, grandpa, mom, dad, brother, sister, friend, enemy, and every person you can talk into coming and voting for Ron Pauls slate. The county slate is the prize now. Its like superbowl of the whole thing. Whoever can get the most people there wins the game. Come on guys who gets the most people to show up at everything? THATS RIGHT THE PAULITES DO. Just imagine all those paulites standing at the bottom of the hill with their handcuffs on waiting to push the ball for McStain and then all of their handcuffs fall to the ground and a loud voice from the sky shouts out EVERY MAN IS FREE TO FIGHT FOR HIS OWN CAUSE! WOOOOHOOOOOOO! Now that will be ineresting to watch.
There will not be a brokered
There will not be a brokered convention. I just don't see it going that far. Deals will be made.
what happens if mccain/huck team up
If their combined total is > 1191 arent we probably screwed? Are the Huck delegates bound to the McCain/Huck ticket in the first round?
No! The Huckabee delegates
No!
The Huckabee delegates are not bound to McCain, even if Huckabee endorses McCain and says he wants to be his VP.
However, the first ballot would be taken and the old media will make the nomination seem like a done deal. They will not tell you that the Huckabee delegates do not have to vote for their own ticket of McCain/Huckabee. I honestly do not believe Huckabee supporters would vote for a McCain presidency....because they do not want to lose to Hillary.
AND
Do you really think southern Baptist conservative delegates are going to vote for the most liberal candidate in the race, John McCain?