Interesting numbers my brother sent me....Submitted by BZ in NH on Wed, 02/06/2008 - 14:35
CUTTING THROUGH THE SUPER TUESDAY NONSENSE
posted on 02/05/2008 at 6:59 am EST
Here are figures you won’t get watching the prognostications on the Super Tuesday coverage.
These facts are here to provide stability in the face of a lot of hype and nonsense you’ll see and hear. It should also keep a few of you (just a few) from throwing your TV’s out the window or driving your cars into a poll (or pole).
FACT: There are COMMITTED & UNCOMMITTED delegates at stake.
FACT: COMMITTED delegates are bound to a particular candidate.
FACT: 651 UNCOMMITTED delegates are free to decide on any candidate all the way.
Very Important FACT: When candidates drop out, they have the option of releasing their delegates (this usually happens). If they endorse another candidate, their COMMITTED delegates are released to vote for whichever candidate they want to.
TOTAL REPUBLICAN PARTY DELEGATES = 2,380
TOTAL REPUBLICAN PARTY DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN = 1,191
TOTAL REPUBLICAN PARTY DELEGATES AT STAKE 02/05 = 975 (41% OF TOTAL DELEGATES)
TOTAL OF THESE AT STAKE THAT ARE COMMITTED = 429 (18% OF TOTAL DELEGATES)
You will most likely hear nonsense like candidate ‘X’ wins 400-700 delegates and candidate ‘Y’ wins 200-400 delegates, while candidates ‘A’ & ‘B’ gather a few here and there. Obviously those figures are impossible when you factor in only 429 COMMITTED delegates are objectively at stake.
Understand that no matter what happens tomorrow, with the UNCOMMITTED delegate factor, this race will still be up for grabs.
1,729 will eventually be formally COMMITTED. Hawaii’s 20 delegates are a part of the 651 UNCOMMITTED.
I look towards candidate ‘X’ or ‘Y’ (along with candidate ‘B’) dropping out. What will be left is an undesirable warfare/welfare state Republican and our man, candidate ‘A’- Ron Paul.
Our focus and commitment here in Hawaii are our state convention delegates and absolutely winning all the Hawaii national delegates no matter what.