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Oh you've got to be kidding me
Submitted by clipper on Sun, 02/10/2008 - 00:07
Insane McCain is now less than 1% back of Huck with 5% to be counted in Louisiana? Wasn't he way back with 80% reported? I care about this because if McCain does not win any or just one state perception could keep him from winning the remaining number of delegates needed to win the nomination. » |
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Numbers changed on the tally
Numbers changed on the tally again.. so I reran my own.
Currently McCain will need to get 92.5% of the remaining uncounted votes to beat Huckabee.
Looks like that fork is in. Probably one more update to go before it can be called 'totally mathmatically impossible' for him to win.
I happened to be looking at
I happened to be looking at the bargraph when it changed and smiled wide when I saw the gap go from less than 1% between M & H to 1.5%
Mathematically, it is now statistically impossible for McCain to win in that state.
At 1.5% behind Huckster, McCain needs to get 3 votes to every 2 for Huckabee from here on out. Plus there would have to be no more votes for Paul or 'other' at all.
At 4% uncounted, using generalized math (not entirely perfect) that leaves 6072 votes uncounted.
Even if 'Other' and Paul got zero votes, with the remaining totals out that would mean there would have to be 1518 more votes for McCain than Huckabee to surpass him - and there are only 1200 'extra' that could be gained at the current rate of growth.
So, unless something insane happens and McCain manages to get about 80% of the remaining votes that havent been counted - Huck wins.
I'd pretty much hang it up for McMonster for LA.
Just got better.. McCain now
Just got better.. McCain now trailing by 1.75% with 98% reporting.
Stick a fork in McCain. Totally impossible for him to win it now. Huckster wins LA.
He'd have to garner 100% of the vote from here on out.. and even then I think Huckster would just squeak the victory.
It won't matter...it's a
It won't matter...it's a beauty contest.
ALL state delegates from La will be able to vote for anyone they want.
No but
perceptions matter. I'm talking about the momentum going into the subsequent states. It looks really bad if Insane loses all three of these states, just two days after prognosticators said he had the election all wrapped up.
Doesn't matter a candidate needs to get 50% in LA
Doesn't matter a candidate needs to get 50% in LA, so the delegates are free to vote for whoever.
Oh... don't worry... McCain
will win in Louisiana.
They'll find those votes somewhere.