Brokered Convention Nearly Guaranteed--Check these #s.
I just got this email from the Paulunteer which shows the numbers of bound delegates each candidate has to this point and how many McCain would have to get to secure the nomination. If these figures are correct, it appears that McCain would have to secure 675 of the remaining 694 bound delegates to secure the nomination; an impossible task by any measure.
I used numbers that actually favor McCain(the same one’s MSM uses) I gave him all the delegates from Florida even though not all of Florida’s delegate were “winner take all”. Anyway, I wrote this in TextEdit, I hope everything pastes lined up correctly.
McCain Romney Huck Paul
AL 18 0 23 0 Bound
AK 3 12 6 5 UnBound
AR 1 1 29 0 Bound - 1 Round
CA 152 6 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
CO 0 43 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
CT 27 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
DE 18 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
FL 57 0 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
GA 21 3 48 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
IL 54 3 0 0 Bound
IA 0 7 30 0 UnBound
KS 0 0 36 0 Bound - 1 Round
ME 0 18 0 0 UnBound
MA 18 22 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MI 6 23 1 0 Bound - 1 Round
MN 0 38 0 0 24 Unbound -14- 1RD
MO 58 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MT 0 25 0 0 UnBound
NV 4 17 3 4 UnBound
NH 12 7 4 1 Bound
NJ 52 0 0 0 UnBound
NY 101 0 0 0 UnBound
ND 5 8 5 5 Bound- 1 Round
OK 32 0 6 0 Bound
SC 19 0 5 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
TN 18 11 23 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
UT 0 36 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
WV 0 0 15 3 Bound - 1 Round
WY 0 8 0 0 Unbound
Total 516 177 195 9 Bound
Total 160 111 39 9 Unbound
Remaining States
Louisiana 02/09 20 C- Awaiting Breakdown Bound- 1 Round
Washington 02/09 18 - Awaiting Breakdown UnBound
Virginia 02/12 63 W Bound- 1 Round
Maryland 02/12 37 C Bound- 2 Rounds
District of Columbia 02/12 19 W C Bound
Wisconsin 02/19 40 Bound
American Samoa 02/23 9 UnBound
Puerto Rico 02/24 23 Bound- 1 Round
Texas 03/04 140 Bound- 3 Rounds
Ohio 03/04 88 UnBound
Rhode Island 03/04 20 Bound
Vermont 03/04 17 W Bound - 2 Rounds
Mississippi 03/10 39 Bound
Virgin Islands 04/04 9 “Morally Bound”
Pennsylvania 04/22 74 C UnBound
North Carolina 05/06 69 “Morally Bound”
Indiana 05/06 57 Bound- 1 Round
Nebraska 05/13 33 Bound- 2 Rounds
Hawaii 05/16 20 C Bound- 1 Round
Kentucky 05/20 45 C Bound
Oregon 05/20 30 C Bound- 2 Rounds
Idaho 05/27 32 Bound- 1 Round
New Mexico 06/03 32 C Bound- 1 Round
South Dakota 06/03 27 C Bound- 1 Round
Total Bound Remaining: 694
Total Unbound Remaining(Includes Morally Bound): 267
To lock up the nomination McCain would need to secure 675 of the 694 Bound delegates remaining. We need to spread this. The MSM is reporting that he is the GOP nominee.
Don't neglect the 150+ "machine" votes.
I believe every state also gets 3 "automatic" delegates for their State Party Chairman, as well as National Committeeman and National Committeewoman.
Those are all "unbound" by the RNC call rules, regardless of whether their state party or "rules" say otherwise.
This way the GOP establishment -- the RNC Committee people and the State Party Chairs can put their little "thumb" down and push a candidate past the 50% barrier if necessary.
They are SUPPOSED to vote for the long-term best interests of the party, both the National AND individual State GOP... but unfortunately McCain has (so far at least) put most of these people into his back pocket.
So (depending on how many of these people are ALREADY being counted in his "total" by the media) he probably has around another 50 to 100 delegates that can be easily "pressured" to support him at the convention.
The question is... will he screw that up by making a horse's a$$ out of himself between now and the Convention in September (which IS still 6+ months away -- look at how many screw-up statements he's made just in 2008, barely 1-1/2 months into the year.)
good point --- not all are
good point --- not all are mcCain's but the majority are. I know at least one of them from Minnesota is a Huckabee guy right now, but if Huck drops out, almost certainly he will go to McCain. Calling these people 'unbound' delegates is deceiving because in the end they will all vote, as you say, for the 'safest' choice -- McCain.
It's actually even better,
It's actually even better, if any other states are like mine (Minnesota).
Romney won here but those delegates aren't bound --- in fact they haven't been elected at all yet. ALL of our delegates come out of county/BPOU conventions and whoever shows up with the most delegates will get their slate through to the next level (state convention or congressional district delegates).
What makes this even MORE interesting, though, is that Romney is now out and there is a good chance that many of his local precinct delegates won't even show up to the county/BPOU conventions. Consequently, whomever gets their ALTERNATE delegates to show up will get more REAL delegates.
Hopefully you begin to see what I'm saying -- WE NEED EVERYONE TO BE A DELEGATE, TO SHOW UP, AND TO VOTE FOR OTHER PRO-RON PAUL DELEGATE (or maybe even better, say that you are a McCain supporter and get in on HIS slate -- if you are not bound, of course).
This is FAR from over, indeed, and old media saying its over almost works to our advantage in many ways because nobody else will show up if they think McCain has it sewn up. I predict now that there will be a LOT of Ron Paul people at the National Convention in St. Paul ---- and we WILL have a say.
The old media said Rudy
The old media said Rudy Giuliani was the clear cut national front runner too.
oops