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Gold at 900
Submitted by texas82 on Mon, 02/11/2008 - 19:17
Ok, I know you wise ones bought gold at $300 and $600 an ounce, but what do you think of buying gold at $900 today? I know my savings dollars are shrinking, and would appreciate the perspective of some experienced gold owners. Would you buy today, or wait for a better price point? For Freedom! » |
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On GATA website today
G7 leaders have a plan in place that of course they can not share with anyone to make "corrections" in world markets if needed. I think it would be safe to say that gold prices and stock markets are going to be what they want them to be, for awhile anyway.
Gold was down $18 today. Why?
nothing goes up in a straight line, don't worry about it
in fact, I hope it goes back to $800 so I can buy some more at a discount.
It was a good stock market day, so money went there and big investors cashed out some gold at a good price.
My take on this...
First, let me preface this by pointing out that my wife watches the damn TV still. She brought my attention to a series of commercials that have been running with increasing frequesncy lately... companies that are buying up any amount of gold that they can, any grade, anything. Gold is becoming popular... ;)
I personally think that silver is a better way to go right now, so I'm agreeing with numerous posts on this thread that have said the same thing.
The only thing that I'm going to disagree on is the people pointing out that by 2012 or whatever that gold will sink to a new low... they are basing that on the viewpoint that the economy will still be somewhat stable in 4 years.
~Live life to its fullest, with an open heart, open arms and most important... an open mind~
casual observer - not an expert at all -
but it was near $950 a few weeks ago. It's dropped. It dropped today. I read an article this morning about the IMF planning to sell a whole bunch of gold. It confused me but the article basically said the IMF wants to try to push the price of gold back down to $500 by April. I personally believe that's a lofty goal and maybe not even possible, and that's IF you believe the report. Again I'm no expert, just trying to relay some info I read today. If in April gold has dropped that far, though, I'd say BUY.
-Phil Hemingway III
I can't imagine them getting the price down to $500..
cutting gold in half, while inflation is running rampant? That would be quite a feat in this market. If they knock it down by 20% or so, even that's a screaming buy. They only have so much gold they can dump on the international market.
All Good Comments - Let me Add a Couple of Things
Having visited some of the South African Mines in the past and having an talked to SA friends let me share a couple of interesting thoughts that you won't find in the MSM. A very large portion of the Worlds Gold comes from South Africa but they are having major problems: 1. Most of the mines are so deep that the mining tempetures are close to 130 degrees. Miners mine without clothes on but can only mine for a very short period of time before they have problems. 2. These same mines are running out of mineable gold. 3. They must dig even deeper in hopes of finding additional reserves but and this is a BIG But, very few white supervisors, engineers and geologists will work in those mine because of a number of problems, primarily that HIV has infected an estimated 90% of the black population. 4. Problems with trible warfare underground. In past they had an agreement to hire only from the Zulu and Swazzi tribes but now they have been forced to hire Banto's (those from primarily central Africa who fled south to get away from the communist). The Zulu's and Swazzi's (sp) have always been very good workers and friendly to whites over a long period of time. The Banto's on the other hand are hated both of these tribes and fights to the death break out all the time. 5. Stealing is by the miners and guards are esculating almost daily. 6. Banto Mining companies and country leaders are forcing mining companies to sell their interest in various mines at a low cost to them and are taking over mining operations.Every mine that they have taken over has had a major drop in production.
Another thing to keep in mine is that world wide silver production has dropped to the lowest since 1922. Add to this that demand for the metal has continually to increas but supply is unable to keep up. India is the largest purchaser of silver in the world and their population will surpass that of China's in the future. India is also one of the fastest growing countries and they believe strongly in the magical power of silver. Remember that silver was the cure of choice for the European plaque. That's where the story comes from about being born with a silver spoon in their mouth. Silver kill's over 650 known pathogens, including many viruses. Many people are not aware that in ancient times silver was far more valuable than gold. In recent years a historical rationship of 16/1 was established between silver and gold. Gold was worth 16 times that of silver. Over the past few years the same relationship was 80/1 and recently pulled up to close to 50/1, but has a ways to go in order to regain that historical relationship. You could say that silver is spring loaded and will now begin its march higher. Many of us believe that gold will reach $4,000 per once and silver over $250 per once.
Henry, Panamerican Silver is a very good mining company, Bill Gates owns about 15% of the company and he seems to know who to buy but it's a pure silver play. A number of us like Minefinders (MFL). They have just opened their open pit gold on the Mexican border for full production last month and happen to know that they are sitting on a bonanza of both gold and silver. In the past this stock had some wide swings because it is thinnly trade with only 37 millions shares outstanding. They are based in Vancouver, BC and are traded on the American exchange along with a number of others. Talk about conservatives, these guys have greatly under estimated their reserves and used much lower pricing in their business plan, just opposite of the "pump and dump" crowd. All of that will change in April when they report their first earnings. Folks you must do your own research and home work on this company and anyothers.
Good Luck.
China is already moving away
China is already moving away from dollars and trading in other currencies. This means that Europeans need no longer buy dollars to trade with them. Now the way I see it is; when the dollar starts to inflate we will see gold start to fall a little, this is because poorer people's wages will lag behind inflation, these people will rush to sell their wedding rings and others will benefit from cheaper gold, (I suggest they don't sell their gold, but hang on to it as long as possible). Eventually this will stable off and gold will rise again..
The up side to all this is that China still needs us to buy food from the U.S.A. and or Brazil, the other major soybean producer.
One other thing we have to realize about gold is that eventhough there still may be gold in the ground, most big companies today, such as Anglo-American's gold division - Anglo-gold (A South African based company), sit on the mining rights in many countries as do other companies, so they control how much goes into circulation. And with environmental protection policies in the U.S. and other countries, gold mining becomes very expensive. I guess that leaves China, who doesn't have to follow the same rules to mine however they like and have money (gold).
BUY GOLD AND SILVER
China will possibly be moving to the silver standard. Silver is up almost a buck in two days.
Ebay using paypal....buy in quantity, 10 lots or 25 lots of silver.
Deb
Gold will continue to go up, but I think silver will go up more
and silver has a better profit potential, so just buy silver. FIRST though, you need at least six months of stored food for each person in your house, means of water purification, then firearms and sufficient ammunition, then silver (up to at least a few hundred ounces), THEN gold.
Laymen understanding of the situation.
Let's put it like this; if at $900 an ounce you can buy an ounce of gold, then you usually can buy X amount of beans for roughly $900 dollars. Now if gold drops, lets say to $300 dollars, then it usually reflects that the dollar is gaining power, and you should be able to buy the same X amount of beans for $300 dollars. (Of course there are those who manipulate the markets). But the basic idea is this; if gold drops you pretty much stay in par with the market. This is obviously a simplified example; what complicates the situation is the state of the dollar as to the quantity of dollars on the market. Should dollars go into circulation from China, Japan, Brazil and all other countries; those who are supporting the dollar to protect their exports, then e are screwed. If this were to happen then X amount of beans will cost $9000 dollars as will an ounce of gold. Of course the best thing would be to buy beans, but they are kind of hard to keep under your mattress.
grant
$900 is cheap.
I'm trading out of gold and getting into silver though.
People here wouldn't call it owning gold since I'm trading GLD and SLV.
PeterSchiffSays.COM
If you get investment advice from strangers on the internet
you are running a huge risk.
You probably could find people recommending you buy and others recommending you sell. That is what makes markets.
One person inside the gold industry and who also has a fairly good take on the developing financial crisis is Jim Sinclair, and you might want to read what he has to say. He thinks gold is going to at least $1,600. To read his site, you might need to sign up which is free; he writes mostly for his ego. He has been correct in his predictions for most of this run up in gold and silver prices.
http://www.jsmineset.com/
I personally have invested in gold, silver, and related mining shares, having bought silver as low as $4 per oz and gold in the high $300's plus multiple mining companies, some of which are now 6 times what I paid for them. I plan to sell all of it in early 2009.
I have my own cyclical based computer model which I mostly created myself (with a little help from my friends) to predict price movements in markets. My model for silver which is about $17.50 US per troy oz as I write, shows that the price could reach between $35 and $40 US per troy oz. early in 2009. Similarly, I show gold moving above $1,600 per troy oz. in the same time frame.
However, after these runs in price, I calculate that the prices will sharply collapse (low expected in 2012-2013) back down to below where they are today. These are highly cyclical markets. After 2012, I think that the price of gold and silver will take off for a second time, plus the interest rates will take off then also, which tells me that the reinflation of the economy will only take place after 2012.
I have been perplexed by the idea that gold and silver, real money, would fall back to below where it is today after being driven up to lofty highs, particularly given the magnitude of the current financial crisis. (Additionally, my work shows that the interest rate on the 10 year US Bond stays between 3.5% and 4.5% between now and 2012, and does not take off to lofty levels now like it would in a runaway inflation.) The only real world event that I can imagine that would make the US dollar more valuable relative to gold and silver would be a shortage of dollars, and the only ways a shortage of dollars would occur is a banking collapse (1930 style) or a huge credit contraction, so after the first of 2009, I will be stuffing a lot of federal reserve notes in my mattress, so to speak, in addition to shorting gold, silver and related mining shares, as credit contracts and it becomes dangerous to have a bank account.
The nature of the financial crisis that is now developing is a balance sheet problem. The paper assets of many financial institutions like banks, brokerage firms, and bond insurers are not good and must be written down. This brings into question solvency since their liabilities might easily wind up being larger than their assets after the write downs. (Citigroup and Merrill Lynch in the news have already needed to raise more capital from investors to keep them solvent.) This is a domino type effect since one man's debt is another man's asset For example, when the bond insurers (read MSNBC internet articles today about the effect of the huge losses bond insurers have incurred) have their credit status downgraded, that affect the credit rating of the bonds they have guaranteed, which in turns makes those bonds have a lesser value which in turn affect the balance sheets of those holding the bonds. This problem is much more than just subprime mortgage loans; they were just the trigger to get the ball rolling. Real estate should accelerate its decline in value. All this will seriously affect federal government tax revenues.
I think the reason that gold and silver will climb for the balance of the year will be in response to the early attempts (like the tax rebate scheme in the news) by the federal government and the federal reserve bank (lowering interest rates) to reinflate the economy. It will likely be the failure of these attempt that will bring back down the dollar price of gold and silver as credit expansion temporarily fails.
These are my own thoughts and I only manage my own life so take what I write with a grain of salt.
"The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence." Thomas H. Huxley
How do I Investing in Mining Companys?
Hi, I was wonder how to go about investing in Mining Companys in say Alaska? Henry, you said you had invested in mining companys. I am hoping you can share some insight with me. I am 21 and new to the stock market thing. I know that in the last quater estimate I actualy lost $10.00 in my retirement. I am buying silver and I am interested in investing in mining companys, any advice?
Thank you
You just buy them on one of the stock exchanges
Some gold and silver mines can actually lose value even though the prices of gold and silver increase; this is because of poor management or individual company problems, so you need to be careful.
You just need to do good research on the mining stocks you buy. There is always risk that you do not have when you buy gold and silver coins and bars. For example, there is an electricity crisis in South Africa which has caused intermittent mine shutdowns and recently has been bad for the price of shares there. Of course, some people view this as a buying opportunity, having created bargains. Lots of silver mining is done in South America with attendant political problems. Many of the mining companies are international which means that they have exposure around the world. Some mining companies have foolishly entered into forward sales contracts which lock in the price of gold, silver or byproducts and deprives them of price increases on significant portions of their production; avoid these companies. And be warned that if the stock market tanks, it may drag down the gold and silver shares or moderate the gains that might have occurred without a general market selloff.
If you go over to kitco.com and read the discussion boards you can pick up lots of information to guide your research. Also other posts in this thread have mentioned some worthy mining companies.
One of the silver stocks I own is PAAS which probably will earn at least $0.40 US per share for the fourth quarter of 2007. It sells for around $35 right now, and trades on the NASDAQ and Toronto exchanges. Based on the companies estimates of production for 2008 from existing and new mines, I calculate that earnings for the 4th quarter of 2008 alone could be near $2.00 US so the stock could easily sell above $150 then based on my projection for silver and gold prices. This is not a recommendation, just an example of what one of the relatively less risky mining companies could do during the surge in precious metals prices I expect.
"The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence." Thomas H. Huxley
Gold is Money
You cannot invest in Gold. Gold is money. Well it has served as such for thousands of years. You are simply swapping fiat currency for hard currency. There are fluctuations and manipulations of the dollar/gold ratio and people that "invest" in gold are simply taking advantage of these arbitrage opportunities.
Amount of gold/goods has not changed in thousands of years. The problem exists when your cash flow does not move in lock-step with inflation. If that is what you fear (like I do), then gold is a good store of wealth.
Like many on this thread have said there are other good stores of wealth, such as other commodities like silver, copper, oil, wheat, aluminum, cigarettes (used in jails as money) and the one I liked best alcohol.
ok this is no lie! i bought
ok this is no lie! i bought at 255.... i knew it was a bottom or close and if it went down more i wouldn't lose much because it couldn't go down much more.. in 03 i swapped gold for silver... Silver is what you should be buying! there will be percentage wise more bang for the buck! please go read this website and read what they say about silver.. investmentrarities.com there are 2 free silver books you can download and read.. go to butlerresearch.com ted butler is by far the leading authority on silver.. then for you gold only guys please read jsmineset.com jim sinclair called the gold top to the day in 1980.. he has also called this gold market dead nuts on.. I trust him! Gold will go to 1650.00 and he says probably much higher! I think you will see silver above 200.00!!! happy investing and do it quick before everyone else (world wide ) catches on and there is not enough metal to go around and you won't be able to buy at any price!
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
Timing is difficult
The problem with waiting for a correction in the gold price that lets you get in at a reasonable price is that the dang correction never seems to happen. There has been a very large run up just since last August so one would expect a retreat to maybe $800 or so, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for it.
The IMF is planning to sell some of its gold (if the United States approves) and if that happens the sales won't start before April. The number they're bandying about is 400 tons, enough to depress the price for a while. European central banks were selling gold for quite some time, but they seem to have slowed down their gold sales. (The geniuses at the Bank of England managed to dump a lot of gold at rock bottom prices -- when it was below $300 an ounce.)
What keeps gold up is that people can see the writing on the wall for the dollar. We have far more debtors than savers, and not the least important of the debtors is the U.S. government itself. So all the political pressure is to inflate the currency (bailing out debtors and screwing savers). Other nations engage in competitive devaluations of their own currencies to keep exports to the U.S. up, so people outside the U.S. are also moving towards gold.
and usually those so called
and usually those so called sales are a bunch of lies to do exactly what you said.. depress the price.. just like the media rigs the game against ron paul these jerkoffs lie about the economic situtation and the gold market.. these are the same jerks who lie to get the price to go down and get people to panic out so they can come in and buy! don't beleive everything you read.. just buy on the dips but don't sell but i would not wait to get started.. this whole derivative /subprime/government spending/fed loosing thing will ensure that sell offs will be small and brief!
look at the economics as long as the stupid ass fed is cutting rates and debasing the currency Gold will continue much higher! get it whil you can!
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
If Anyone is Selling: We're Still Buying
We pay top prices for better coins. Unlimited capital available to buy quality numismatics. Far as bullion is concerned , while we do not chase that market we do get quite a bit of it in on occasion, ( we just got several dozen circulated $10 eagles, about the same amouont of circ double eagles, about $1,000 face value in pre-1964 90% silver coins You can buy this type of stuff before we resell it to metals dealers) usually as partial trades. Check us out.
http://www.usrarecoininvestments.com
The world is my country, all mankind are my brethren, and to do good things is my religion. Thomas Paine Godfather of the American Revolution)
Check this
Check this out
http://goldsilver.com/video_categories.php
There's an awesome video with Mike Maloney and RP but the best one to watch first is at the bottom with Robert Kiyosaki (2008 predictions ) he'll answer your questions very well
Take $500/1000 fiat crap
Take $500/1000 fiat crap dollars and buy 1-2 rolls of American Silver Eagles to start with. Their easy to get into and you'll at least have a little spending power if the dollar goes belly up. Silver is on the rise and I'm in to get some more myself before it starts the rocket ride.
Puppets come and puppets go but the world's stage is getting cluttered.
if your using it to be able
if your using it to be able to barter or buy with also get some 90% pre 1964 silver U.S. dimes.. if you need a loaf of bread and the silver dollar is way to much to buy the bread how will you get change.. Silver eagles are great too they will become the new collectors peices!
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
Also, be careful about
Also, be careful about handling them, as they are pure silver and therefore darken and tarnish very easily, which can affect their resale value (unless you really expect TS to HTF, in which case nobody will probably care!).
If you buy a full roll, I would recommend NOT removing them at all, even once. If you do feel the need to do so, wash your hands well immediately beforehand, and take them out over a towel-covered table, as pure silver is soft and will dent VERY (and surprisingly) easily. Handle them ONLY on the edges ---- NEVER touch the faces of a bullion or collector's coin!
I say all this because dealers (some of them, anyway) will give you up to $1.00 LESS per coin for worn, dented, or tarnished eagles upon resale.
yeah, interesting this week in silver.
It's up at 17.50, moving much faster up while gold was static today. Silver starting to wake up.
Here's how it goes
Bubbles Jr.(Bernanke) is going to try to prop up asset prices. However, banks, are unwilling and unable to lend. Therefore we get inflationary monetary policy and deflationary credit markets. Commodities(corn, wheat, gold, silver) go up, assets(real estate, stocks) go down. The dollar is toast. The Greenspan/Bernanke/Bush depression begins. Peter Schiff is our salvation. Don't think of gold in dollar denominated terms. Think of it as exchanging monopoly money for real money. In the short term, gold may fall against the dollar, however, in the long run, all fiat currencies are destined for the toilet. EXCHANGE YOUR FIAT MONEY FOR TANGIBLE GOLD AND SILVER BULLION!
http://ussatoday.blogspot.com
ussatoday.blogspot.com
Watch out for hyper deflation
I believe that gold is a good investment right now. As long as the FED keeps inflating the dollar, to save Wall Street, gold will go up.
Just watch out for real economic crisis though. If the shit really hits the fan and interest rates are raised dramatically to save the dollar, gold will most likely plummet. The market will be flooded with gold bullion and jewelry gold from people desperate to get out of debt. At the same time the money supply will rapidly shrink as all the M2 and M3 credit disappear, due to loans being paid back and loans failing.
This is what happened during the great depression. If things get this bad the only way to keep your wealth is to be out of debt and keep cash or have money invested in government bonds. The banks will not be able to pay the money in your saving accounts.
True, but during the Great
True, but during the Great Depression the price of gold actually ROSE --- well, was officially set from $20.67/oz to $35.00/oz. Not that that helped most Americans, as our dear leader Roosevelt, in typical statist fashion, demanded that almost all gold coins and bullion be surrendered to "the authorities". ("for our own good", I'm sure!)
If the price of gold ever does drastically sink, you can be all but sure that the prices of almost every other commodity will sink as well, so it still relatively would not be a huge loss --- unless you decide to stuff your mattress with dollars at just the right time.
please show me
which central bank is planning on raising interest rates dramatically, lol.
Not gonna happen. The total debt load is so profound, the only way the economies and financial system can survive is massive inflation. Ben Bernanke is a student of the great depression and has vowed to do everything in his power to prevent it...that means inflation, inflation, inflation and more inflation.
A Paul Volcker interest rate rising regime ain't gonna happen anytime on the horizon, especially with Keynesian democrats about to take power...they wil stimulate, cut rates, print money and raise your taxes. In fact, deflation will absolutely murder the American government as it is committed to all the social security and medical entitlement programs. In a deflationary regime, all of those payments would cost the government more than they have...the government would literally go bankrupt or fail to pay its obligations..sort of the same thing. They HAVE to inflate just to drive down the cost of SSI to all the baby boomers. Not in nominal dollars, which go up, but in relative dollars.
Also, during Volcker we were still a producing, creditor nation. That's all gone now.
"Also, during Volcker we
"Also, during Volcker we were still a producing, creditor nation. That's all gone now."
You are right. I didnt mean to correct you. I only meant to expand. Sorry.
ussatoday.blogspot.com
ussatoday.blogspot.com