Remaining States Delegates Breakdown Shows McCain Will Lose, Well Short of 1,191
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/02/10/national-delegate-...
Insane McCAIN only has 719 delegates right now.
He needs 1,191 to win the GOP nomination.
1,191 - 719 =
472 delegates short
Here are the upcoming contests…only Washington, D.C and Vermont are winner take all states.
Give Huck the south, and McCAIN the blue states to be fair.
02/12/08 D.C. Primary 19 - Insane McCAIN
02/12/08 Md. Primary 38 - Insane
02/12/08 Va. Primary 64 - Huck
02/19/08 Wis. Primary 40 - too close
03/04/08 Ohio Primary 91 - too close
03/04/08 R.I. Primary 21 - Insane
03/04/08 Texas Primary 138 - Huck or Paul, Insane won’t win Texas
03/04/08 Vt. Primary 18 - Insane (maybe Paul, but let's assume...)
03/11/08 Miss. Primary 37 - Huck
04/22/08 Pa. Primary 75 - too close
05/06/08 Ind. Primary 55 - Huck
05/06/08 N.C. Primary 67 - Huck
05/13/08 Neb. Primary 35 - Huck
05/16/08 Hawaii Primary 20 - Insane
05/20/08 Ky. Primary 45 - Huck
05/20/08 Ore. Primary 31 - Paul
05/27/08 Idaho Primary 32 - Paul
06/03/08 N.M. Primary 24 - Insane
06/03/08 S.D. Primary 27 - Paul
———————————————–
Okay, addy up…ASSuming winner takes all, which they will not.
Insane McCAIN wins only 140 delegates….
He needs 472
Okay fine…let’s be generous and give him every single too close to call state.
140 + 40 + 91 + 75 = 346
472 - 346 = 126
126 delegates short
Toss in Virginia for charity, he's still 62 short....give him Indiana, nope...still short. This is a very raw breakdown, but I think you get the point.
Insane McCAIN will not win the nomination because he cannot win 1,191 delegates.
BC Baby
or
Huck and Insane will both run out of money and Ron will win the nomination by default. We'll have St. Paul all to ourselves.
I was told FL is a winner take all state too
Unfortunately, our delegates hands are tied unless vote goes into second round in MN? Can someone comment who knows more about this?
R3VOLution
can some one update this thread..to be most current..
thanks
No one can really tell
The 3 wins for McCain today gives him some momentum. It is nonsense to suggest he will run out of money (Huck may run out), as he has the backing of many in the GOP and people will give him money as long as he is in a very comfortable position as front runner.
If you go on the weekend's results, McCain may not make it, but based on today's results, he will sail through. Each state is different. Well, Perry - TX gov.
has endorsed McCain, but the tendency is that southern conservatives support Huckabee. Hope Paul has get a good performance from TX, possibly even win.
We have to think of other factors that could cost McCain the nomination, like another mistake, some relevation, health etc.
McCain cannot win Texas.
McCain cannot win Texas. His amnesty program alone will can his ass.
He cannot win Mississippi. He cannot win Indiana.
He cannot win any southern state, period.
He will win Hawaii, probably Pennsylvania, and maybe Ohio.
Here's what remains...insane McCain needs 370 more delegates
02/19/08 Wis. Primary 40 - McCain
03/04/08 Ohio Primary 91 - McCain
03/04/08 R.I. Primary 21 - McCain
03/04/08 Texas Primary 138 - Huck or Paul, Insane won’t win Texas
03/04/08 Vt. Primary 18 - McCain
03/11/08 Miss. Primary 37 - Huck
04/22/08 Pa. Primary 75 - McCain
05/06/08 Ind. Primary 55 - Huck
05/06/08 N.C. Primary 67 - Huck
05/13/08 Neb. Primary 35 - Huck
05/16/08 Hawaii Primary 20 - McCain
05/20/08 Ky. Primary 45 - Huck
05/20/08 Ore. Primary 31 - Paul
05/27/08 Idaho Primary 32 - Paul
06/03/08 N.M. Primary 24 - McCain
06/03/08 S.D. Primary 27 - Paul
Based off of these predictions, McCain would still be 81 short.
Toss in Orgeon, Idaho, he still loses.
After Virginia, comes down to Texas
After Virginia, this says he's within 100 delegates. That means it all turns on Texas.
Time to update this -- McCain took Virginia
Add 60 delegates (the last few depend on the state GOP) to your count. Now it's only 66 delegates short of an outright win.
In other words, a win for McCain in Texas and it's over.
Don't forget Colorado... NO
Don't forget Colorado... NO WAY INSANE MCCAIN WINS HERE!
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
good to
good to go
Tim
Active/Reserves/Retired
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Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
McCain has more delegates in the bag
His official count is 724 according to RCP, but this understates his support. See the official delegate count at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/repub... compared to the total delegates for each state at http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-Alloc.phtml. Some examples of latent McCain strength:
States like Nevada and Maine that have already voted will leave 3 delegates uncommitted (state chair and 2 national committeemen). These party loyalists will fall in line and back McCain.
Louisiana sends 44 delegates based on this week's state convention. If the Paul campaign challenge doesn't work, they will go to McCain.
Washington state's primary on Feb 19th will determine 19 delegates in addition to the 18 that come out of the caucus system. McCain is very likely to win them.
Finally, because only 12(!) of McCain's official delegates come from caucus states, he will be little effected by our hoped-for success in upcoming state conventions.
This is why Huckabee knows he needs a "miracle" to get the nomination, and we are in no better position.
Sure are a lot
of them defense contractors and war machine builders, shipyards, Naval, Army, & Air Force bases, Nasa, CIA, in Virginia. Hopefully the military Paul supporters outweigh the war machine. just sayin.
"A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within" W. Durant
if any of this is true
then there may be hope, but we have to work out asses off. so lets do it
Ben
No way about Virginia
McCain has a huge lead in Virginia right now --
See the poll at:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f37ee2e5-1...
Might want to change your assumptions. That's 63 more winner-take-all delegates.
SUSA now has McCain 48-37
Your poll is a day old. Here's hoping Huck pulls this out and keeps McCain from locking this up early.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/02/huckabee-get...
Forgetting something
All Romney's (and the rest of the dropouts) delegates are free to vote for whoever they want. Unfortunately if even half of these go to McCain it is over.
while your assumption does
while your assumption does make it appear harder for McCain than it is, the fact of the matter is mainly comes down to Texas.
Nice
ZOOAMERICA. very nice post with very good analysis! thank you! :)
Yes but....
Not if we don't keep donating...
The race is still wide open.
Excellent post, you did a
Excellent post, you did a fine job of looking at the possible break down of states.
Thank you. March 4th is
Thank you.
March 4th is blast off day.
T-minus 22 days
Get ready to launch.
I love this post
!!!!
West Virginia still has NINE (9) more
On May 13, the official West Virginia primary (not the state convention) has an additional NINE GOP delegates up for grabs as follows:
Three (3) per each of WV's three congressional district.
A win in Texas can help Ron Paul WIN THESE!
NOTE: The WVGOP state convention awarded 18 (15 for Huck, 3 for Paul) delegates on Super Tuesday. There are three more national delegates designated for WVGOP insider hacks.
NOTE NOTE: Both the Republicans AND Democrats will be allowing "independents" (voters registered non-partisan) to vote in this primary. So, WV voters registered "NP" have two choices, while voters registered "R" or "D" are stuck with that party.
If you are not OUTRAGED, you're not paying attention!
You have a point
While I expect McCain to easily get enough delegates, the remaining states are largely Red states, so it's easy to imagine Huckabee upsetting McCain in several of them.
If Huckabee wins Virginia tomorrow that may give him a chance in Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, and other states where the Republican electorate is rural, evangelical, and conservative.
McCain will almost certainly win Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania where moderate Republicans dominate.
Most states allocate delegates to the winner of the Congressional district, so if McCain wins big in Pennsylvania he will probably get all the delegates, while if Huck wins narrowly in Texas (hard to imagine otherwise), McCain will still get a bunch of delegates from Dallas and Houston. That will put McCain over the top as early as March.
I like the original
better than this one.
ok so even if it does come
ok so even if it does come to a brokered convention.. what are paul vs huck odds?
I think Huck is having a fight to get on the ballot in PA
So- he may not even be a part of that
race. I don't think he'll get enough signatures there.
Just another variable.
Also, he is in trouble in Indiana with signatures.
We shall see.
But McCain may go down also-and that would leave his
delegates up for grabs.
So many things can happen- it is so hard to know- but even
a tiny window give me enough reason to carry on.
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What is begun in anger, ends in shame.
What is McLames true number
What is McLames true number of delegates? This is probably the fourth explanation I have seen, and each has a different requirement for McLame. I read one earlier that said McLame would have to win over 70% of the bound delegates to reach 1191.
What is McLame's real count for bound delegates? This example showing McLame only needs 43%, and that seams possible. I would not assume that he will not win Texas.
From what i have learned, the bigger the states population, the higher percentage of ignorant people. Please dont be affended, I definately appreciate the hard work. And I agree DRP is going all the way, I have never been a fan of assumption math.
Again, please dont be affended.
Tim
The bigger the state
the more chance for an intentional mess up.
Im gonna be a delegate, Im
Im gonna be a delegate, Im gonna be a delegate.. na na na na na.... and my vote goes for no one except RP, they can broker me all they want... Of course, I need to be selected at county and state, but I feel lucky this year..
Tim
Active/Reserves/Retired
Join the
Military for Ron Paul meet-up Group
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/1040/
http://www.rxforliberty.com/10/
Cedar Park, Texas
5 Aug 2007
McCain Needs 42% of Remaining Delegates
It's interesting how they are making it sound like no one else stands a chance other than McCain. I keep hearing that Huckabee needs 85% of the remaining delegates to win. When you hear that number it just sounds like he should just give up.
What they don't say is that McCain needs 42% of the remaining delegates to keep it from being a brokered convention. Getting 42% doesn't sound like a sure thing to me, especially after this weekend.
Let's say that Ron Paul gets 5%, that would mean Huckabee would only need to get 54% of what's left in order for a brokered convention. If I were McCain, I wouldn't be celebrating too soon.