Nader and Bloomberg Will Help Ron Paul Win the Presidency
Nader appeals to the left. Obama appeals to the left. Bloomberg appeals to the left.
By taking away votes from Obama, the challenger benefits.
If McCain gets canned by lying about the sex scandal, Ron Paul has a very serious chance of winning the nomination. If Ron Paul does win at the convention, he will be the challenger to Obama, Nader, and possibly Bloomberg. GREAT news.
Nader does not hurt Ron Paul in any way. He helps by taking away votes from the left. Obama will lose votes as a result.
I also think Bloomberg entering the race would help Ron Paul even more. He is a republican in name only. Bloomberg is a leftist, and the people voting for him are going to be taking away liberal votes from Obama, not Paul. Bloomberg may be "independent," but the voters attracted to his policies are not conservatives. Imagine a 4 way race for the presidency...
Obama (Dem)
Nader (Green)
Bloomberg (Ind)
Paul (Rep)
The liberal vote is going to be VERY divided. Jews will vote for Bloomberg. Blacks will vote for Obama. Liberal whites will vote for Nader. Liberal women will vote for Obama or Bloomberg, and liberal men will vote for Nader. The liberal vote will be sliced up.
The point is, Obama will lose liberal voters to Bloomberg and Nader. Ron Paul will not lose any votes to these other candidates because they appeal entirely to the left. Bloomberg and Nader help Ron Paul because they will both draw votes away from Obama.
Ha, you got it!
That's awesome, I'm so proud of that 'shop.
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RON PAUL 2012
Uhm
1) Hello, don't you think the RNC will pick Romney if McCain gets canned?
2) "Liberal whites will vote for Nader. Liberal women will vote for Obama or Bloomberg, and liberal men will vote for Nader"
No. People will still vote for Obama because they don't want to seem racist, and voting for Obama is a zero-cost way to get "I like black people" cred.
bloomberg
has been rumored to be looking into Obama getting into the independent run if he doesn't win against Hillary.
__________________________________________________________
"The real terrorist's are in this country. They are not planning to blow us up,......... but rather, take our money, our freedom, and our country."
Two problems with your analysis...
1. McCain is not going to quit over the NYT's story. No one has even come close to proving there was any type of sex scandal. There may have been some flirting, but no sex. What would hurt McCain worst is for the FEC to refuse to release him from the Public Fund Matching program (which should be illegal). At least that would hamper his campaign quite a bit, when Ron Paul would amp up his efforts again.
2. If Nader starts getting a write-in vote immediately (since he's not on any ballot yet), Hillary will win Texas and Ohio since the votes will come from Barack. I've heard that Barack dismissed Nader today, but I haven't heard if Hillary has said anything. I doubt she has, since Nader will help her, and Lord knows her past and her dedication to putting everyone on some type of welfare program can't win on its own.
So, it looks like the media was correct over a year ago when they said it will come down to Hillary v. McCain.
How Can Nader get any write-in votes right now?
He's not running for the nomination of any party right now, so he is not in the primary AT ALL.
RP2012!
Independent?
Fortune Favors the Bold
Or did he secure the Green party's nomination? See my post "The dark side of Ralph Nader."
Fortune Favors the Bold
MSM
They seem to have a way of making self-fulfilling prophecies don't they?
Gee, wonder how they managed that?
They hate us for our freedom. Thank God the government is here to take it away!
GET TO THE JEWS BEFORE BLOOMBERG DOES!
Here is how you completely undermine Bloomberg's voting base and convert the Jews directly into RP supporters:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/28366?page=1
So much more effective and a hell of a lot quicker than going door to door. You don't even have to talk to anyone! (of course it would be nice, but this is just in the interest of time)
reply
This is a very interesting move by Nader and I have a feeling he is going to get a respectable core of support especially from progressives that backed Dennis Kucinich. Many of the talking points he shared today on Meet the Press are similar to Dr. Paul so it is a windfall for Ron to have a new voice on the campaign trail mirroring critical elements of his platform. Make no mistake Nader is a big government progressive like Kucinich and Gravel but these guys present very workable programs that make alot of sense. We are still 6 months out from the conventions so there is time for Nader to make some noise especially if he does some of the things he did in 2000, in fact the Paul campaign is doing just that with great success!
Don't forget
Paul has earned a nice portion of the anti-war vote that traditionally goes to the left.
New Hampshire and Ecuador
I do not doubt Ron Paul has
I do not doubt Ron Paul has earned support from former liberals, but I do not think he ever had the attention of the hardcore left that saw an "R" by his name and dismissed him simply because of that.
Bloomberg and Nader will not hurt Ron's chances of winning the presidency if he wins the nomination. They will help Ron Paul by taking votes away from Obama. Ron is not going to lose votes to any candidate. Obama will lose votes from other candidates.
After Ron wins the nomination, we will win the White House if Bloomberg and Nader are in syphoning away votes from the left.
Disagree
Nader could pull some from Obama, but not many. People believe Obama is green as well; hell, Obama idolators believe he can do no wrong.
Bloomberg would pull a fair amount of warfare liberals away from Obama, who has declared an 09 Iraq pullout.
However, the vast majority of "conservatives" still believe the U.S. can do no wrong in international affairs, has never provoked anyone, are still scared of terrorists who attack us because we are "free", and WILL NOT vote for Paul.
If McCain sinks (crossing fingers and toes), they will choose Huckabee or Bloomberg over Obama. Then they can go home and pretend that they just saved the nation by voting for the "best of the worst".
McCandidate
Time for the campaign to go negative!
http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n10/sleepdog99/McCandidat...
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RON PAUL 2012
That was subtle...
...and only 780 calories per helping (230 mg. sodium; 700 calories from fat; and 100 years of war)
Obama idolators...
I think we're calling them 'Obomatons' now... :-)
I thought it was
I thought it was Obominations :)
Mathew 5:9 Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.
I 2nd That
Bloomberg is "business as usual", meaning continue the status quo. A vote for Bloomberg is a vote to not rock the boat and stay the course (big government republican agenda). I see this a an option for conservatives who are afraid of smaller government (oh dear!), some I have talked to at least. He will not steal votes from Obama, but conservatives who won't vote for McCandidate.
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RON PAUL 2012
He's Jewish. The GOP is not
He's Jewish. The GOP is not going to turn to Bloomberg after McCain gets caught with his pants down. Bloomberg is a bigger liberal than McCain. A massive portion of the conservative base is not going to vote for Bloomberg because he's not a conservative. He is a liberal, Jewish neocon hell bent on world socialism. Bloomberg does not appeal to conservative voters. If he enters the race, he will take away would be Obama voters from the fractured left.
Demographically speaking, America is still a predominantly white, Christian nation. We tend to elect older white guys as our president.
It's happened 43 times before. It's more than likely the 44th president is going to be a white man. We had one Catholic in office, and that was short lived. America will not elect a woman, an African American, or a Jew to become president of the United States. History and demographics prove it.
Race Aside
There are people who consider Bloomberg to be a conservative option. I am not talking about habitual GOP voters, the angry old white men that hate jews, women and blacks (as you so helpfully point out?), but free-thinking folks that would shop around for one. They do exist outside of the Paul camp. I talk to some frequently and always try to throw some Ron Paul tidbits into the conversations. Obviously loyal party goers won't leave the GOP camp, but eventually someone is going to crash their party and change the music. I'm targeting those that are standing around and complaining about the music.
Regarding history & demographics, are you suggesting that the odds of my candidate, Ron Paul's chances of winning are increased? Then I guess I should be satisfied the odds are in my man's favor. But past performance is no indication of future (election) results, and I think it's still anyone's game.
Go Negative!
http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n10/sleepdog99/McCandidat...
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RON PAUL 2012
>>>>>I am not talking about
>>>>>I am not talking about habitual GOP voters, the angry old white men that hate jews, women and blacks...
The "habitual GOP voters," sounds to me like the Christian/Evangelical wing of the Republican Party. Some are nuts, but others do not hate all women, blacks and jews. The base of the conservative vote lays at the church door. Michael Bloomberg is not Christian. He will draw very little support from mainstream Republican voters seeking an alternative to John McCain. Politically speaking, I think Huckabee would be a better candidate for the GOP (besides Ron, of course) because he would dominate and win the southeastern United States in a general election.
Exactly, Bloomberg isn't running on the GOP ticket
And he'll attract votes from a more diverse group of people that could otherwise be pointed to the Ron Paul campaign. Call them "non-profile" conservative voters. We're not marketing to the habitual GOP voters, they'll sink with the ship if that's what it takes to prove to themselves that they need to wake up. And while they're sleeping we're taking over the party, and we'll starting by carving out a bug hunk of the big old umbrella.
And the republican party planners are putting up Nader and Bloomberg to divide the protest. They want a united RNconvention. They'll deal with Obama later, when he's confirmed for the nomination by the democrats. In the meantime they mean to dilute our message with non-starters.
That's why it's time to go negative!
http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n10/sleepdog99/McCandidat...
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RON PAUL 2012
I was wondering
Your analysis seems to make really good sense, but is it possible there could be other, unexpected outcomes in this field of four? If so, what's the most likely variation to the scenario you posed here.
Thanks for the education (I'm a little new to this).
The only think I can think
The only think I can think of is Hillary wins instead of Obama. In that scenario, Bloomberg and Nader would have the exact same effect. They would both draw votes away from Hitlery. There is no difference.
But the way things are looking, Obama is going to win the nomination. If Hillary steals a couple of elections in Ohio and Texas things could change, but until then Obama is on the ticket. And it doesn't matter.
Nader is a "Green" Party candidate...very liberal.
Obama has the most liberal voting record in the Senate.
Bloomberg is a classic neocon posing as a Republican. If he runs, it will be as an independent. He is a so-called fiscal conservative, and a social liberal.
What's great is that Nader attacks Obama from the extreme left by taking votes away from him, and Bloomberg attacks Obama from the centrist left. If Bloomberg enters the race, Obama will be squeezed and votes will be pinched from both sides - the extreme left (Nader) and the centrist left (Bloomberg) leaves Obama stuck in the middle.
Ron Paul will have an excellent chance - just as good as anyone else - at winning if McCain gets caught lying about his affair. Pat Buchanon said somebody is going to fall - the NYTimes or McCain - and I think it will be McCain.
With the liberal vote divided between the extreme left, (Nader) the American left (Obama) and the Neocon left (Bloomberg) - whoever the Republican challenger is will benefit from Bloomberg and Nader. Hopefully the beneficiary will be Ron Paul!
Not going to happen
Obama walks on water, Nader and Bloomberg take the ferry like everyone else.
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RON PAUL 2012
Sorry, i'm a little weak on
Sorry, i'm a little weak on my Nader. Gonna need time to analyze him further.
"But, indeed, no private person has a right to complain, by suit in court, on the ground of a breach of the Constitution. The Constitution it is true, is a compact, but he is not a party to it."
Nader in The Race is a Good Thing
Having Ralph Nader in the race will help slow up and drag down the speed off the Hitlery, Obama, campaigns. It will give the real Lefties of the Democratic party someone to campaign and root for..!
It will also, make a Republican Brokered Convention more tangible in the eyes of the not so party faithful. This should put more wind in the Ron Paul campaign Sails!
Daryl
Nader will draw votes from
Nader will draw votes from the PETA and ANSWER crowd. People who don't think Obama is liberal enough will vote for him. They are kind of like militant leftists...eco-crazies, tree hugers, etc.
Nader is a watermelon. He's a "Green," on the outside, but on the inside he's all RED.