the Coming Civil War...Submitted by aVoiceof Reason. on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 21:11
Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee, will defeat John McCain in the general election with as much as 400 to 30 electoral votes (maximum estimate). Simultaneously, the democrats will also maintain their majority lead in the House and Senate. However, for those running as conservative republicans and as Ron Paul Republicans, many will win.... I also predict that Bob Barr will end up with around 10% of the vote (with the maximum high at around 20%), which will also help lead to McCain's defeat.
However, what is important to note is not the obvious results of the coming election, but what happens afterwards... The massive Republican defeat will lead to a most certain GOP civil war. Many will cite Bob Barr's run for McCain's defeat... however, while this will be an aiding factor, McCain's defeat will be mostly due to being heavily outspent/outraised, his close relationship with the unpopular president, his continuation of unpopular policies (especially the war and his weakness on the economy). He will also lose the conservatives, most of whom will end up voting for Bob Barr... and, unless he picks a popular social conservative, he may end up losing the evangelical Christians. However, Bob Barr will not be the main reason.... he's more of an effect of McCain's run (not the cause of his defeat).... besides, voters don't belong to any one person/party... and, a Bob Barr/Libertarian run will have no effect on the Congressional races, so therefore, they won't be the cause of the Republican defeat.
So... this GOP Civil War will be attributed then to one or two things... some will claim the party wasn't unified and blame conservatives, especially supporters of Ron Paul who embarrassed McCain at the Convention and started an uprising in the delegate votes. However, the real reason for Republican defeat will be the exact thing that Ron Paul and his supporters have been complaining about: that the party has not stuck to its conservative platform. Thus, there will be a significant desire to move the party further to the right.... Ultimately, this conservative side will win. Maybe not right away, but if not right away, surely after 1 or 2 more election defeats of the party establishment. Thus, there will eventually be a much stronger support for conservative, Ron Paul-like candidates, and once these people run, they will win. And, I'd predict this to happen in the next 2-3 elections (not counting the coming one). so, 2-6 years from now.