The Catalyst for Financial Disaster - JIM SINCLAIR
Just posted tonight
Posted On: Friday, July 25, 2008, 9:56:00 PM EST
The Catalyst For Financial Disaster
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear Friends,
A serious event occurred today. This event was the very public international recognition of more off balance sheet so called “assets” revealed as having little, if any, value.
This event is arguably the most serious financial upset ever. If you have not protected yourself, it is getting very late - maybe too late.
Your best hope is that this event is so complex that the herd of self anointed experts has no clue what that vehicle is, how large it is and therefore the profound meaning it has.
Gold, serious junior gold shares (the only seriously underpriced and therefore real value in equities) and non-dollar short term federal currency instruments are your sanctuary. You better get there, and get there FAST!
Click here for the criteria you should consider when selecting junior gold share situations.
The meaning of this is not only are Freddie and Fannie’s troubles much costlier than realized, but now there is an entirely new definition of market-less financial entities with off balance sheet assets that undermine primarily the US and now international banking systems. Conduit mortgage OTC derivatives will have to be marked down now that the sun is shining on them.
The U.S. mortgage industry transformed itself in a way that has opened dangerous SIV sub prime real estate conduits to global capital markets.
A conduit loan is priced by swaps and swap spreads, thereby becoming a package of various OTC derivatives generally derived from a formula that would make Einstein look like a kindergarten mathematician.
By turning mortgages into securities, lenders created vast distances between homeowners and their mortgage holders, who can be anywhere in the world such as Australia.
US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. Write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are in the cards.
That guarantees the USDX at .6200 and more likely at .5200.
That guarantees gold to reach at least $1650 much sooner than I anticipated.
This strongly suggests that my estimate of $1650 is significantly below the price of gold coming soon.
This opens the probability that a modernized and revitalized Federal Reserve Gold certificate ratio tied to the M3 will evolve into the monetary system.
The greatest economic crime ever committed is OTC derivatives. Those that proffered these will have killed more people than most wars.
This is it and it is NOW!
Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair
Australia's screwed
China would be screwed if we weren't backing Fannie and Fredie, we're all screwed "08. I read about the OTC a couple days ago. I'm not a Christian, but didn't Someone say something to the effect to "lay not up your treasures in gold and silver on earth where moth and rust doth corrupt and thieves break in and steal..." In the other book, Islam says that interest is illegal, and so is the stock market. You can't make money without directly contributing work by product or service, which prevents monetary expansion.........they don't follow their religion either. We're all screwed............
Ron Paul or no one at all!
the bible only says
the bible only says "treasures" not specifically gold or silver.. gold and silver is the money that God created! it cannot be counterfeited like a federal reserve note! and the coun terfeiters are the federal reserve!
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
sorry to misquote, didn't
sorry to misquote, didn't look it up, the Bible wasn't written in English. "Treasures" refers to anything of value at any given time.
Ron Paul or no one at all!
sure treasures could mean,
sure treasures could mean, gold , silver, bonds, US money, the euro etc etc etc..
as for me and my home, we shall worship the LORD
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
"WHAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW"
No spin here either. This is from Casey's article from today
Find it here www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey062608.html
What should you do?
Reduce your standard of living now (while the situation is still under control), greatly increase your savings (in gold, which is real money) and rig for greatly changed patterns of production, consumption, employment and business for a considerable time. The hurricane that's just starting to hit the economy will both trigger and worsen problems in other areas. Starting with politics, because nearly everyone today believes the ridiculous notion that the government should guide the economy.
WHAT? What is "this" and what is "that"?
I read it and I didn't understand what happened. There are lots of "this" and "that" and I don't know what they are. Can someone explain what happened?
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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government of the people, by the people, for the people
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Here is "THIS" and "THAT" -
Print at least two copies of the following points in at least 32pt font. Post one copy above your computer monitor and the other by your phone:
Gold is going to $1200 in 2008.
Gold is going to $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011.
The US dollar is going to USDX .5200
Gold is getting ready for its third attempt at $1000.
The so called dollar rally is a total joke.
The junior gold shares sector are where the shorts are the greatest and the bargains the best with good companies looking at 1000% gains from today's lows.
Oh, that. Thanks anyway.
"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." Benjamin Franklin
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government of the people, by the people, for the people
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this from the willie b
this from the willie b letter
A new chapter to the mythology treatise has been written. The slow motion collapse of the US financial system proceeds on schedule. The claim nowadays is made, that the USEconomy will remain protected from the bank system woes. What a crock! No, the planned destruction all started with Greenspan's acquiescence to irrational exuberance in 1994. He decided to amplify the US$ money supply out of step (faster) than economic growth, so long as the (rigged) Consumer Price Index remained calm. The export of inflation helped to keep it down for a decade, but now that policy has backfired. The destruction required a key push by the 1999 grant of Most Favored Nation status to China. That enabled removal of a large chunk of the US industrial base. The resulting poverty kept down the power of the proletariat laborer, a key opponent to Politburo central bankers. Doesn't anyone realize central bankers are more communist in nature than capitalist? Sadly, Americans learned little in school, surely not how communists identified, and not how fascists are identified. The absence of viable income from added value enterprise gave birth to the Asset Based Economy, wherein the Untied States took the deadly pill. This was not a red pill versus blue pill, but a hemlock pill. It built the economic foundation atop a housing bubble, and laced the entire banking system with an unstable temporary mortgage latticework. The risk price model formed the glue, and that too has begun to dissolve.
THE UGLIEST PART OF THE ENTIRE FINANCIAL PATHOGENESIS IS THAT MOMENTUM IN THE BREAKDOWN IS FIERCE, AND FEEDBACK LOOPS ARE UNSTOPPABLE, AS THEY FORCE DE-LEVERAGING AND POWERFUL CONTINUATION OF THE PRICE DECLINE FOR ALL ASSOCIATED ASSETS. In its wake lie gold & silver, which benefit from the retreat from a burning collapsing building built of paper girders and paper walls, held by faulty risk price model glue.
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
looks like
Jim has skipped town
This is on his website - hope it helps
He's on the East Coast
To contact Jim Sinclair:
****JIM IS NOT ACCEPTING EMAIL QUESTIONS AT THIS TIME. IF YOU HAVE AN URGENT INQUIRY THAT CANNOT BE ANSWERED ELSEWHERE YOU CAN CALL HIM DIRECT AT 1-860-364-1830
Fax him at 860-364-0673
LOL!
He's got one bag with underwear and another filled with gold as he jumped on a private jet to the "islands".
___________
Lisa C.
www.dvds4delegates.com=Ron Paul, the 44th U.S. President
“Elections are short term efforts; revolutions are long term projects.”
--Ron Paul
Join the rEVOLution here: www.campaignforliberty.com
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
that brought a smile to my face.
LOL
I recommend Aussies try regional banks and credit unions
after they've bought themselves some gold and silver -- remember there is no equivalent of FDIC insurance in Australia. Look to buy 1966 fifty-cent "rounds" and pre-decimal coins (educate yourselves about these coins on wikipedia). They are good value Aussie "junk" silver.
___________
Lisa C.
www.dvds4delegates.com=Ron Paul, the 44th U.S. President_★
“Elections are short term efforts; revolutions are long term projects.”
--Ron Paul
Join the rEVOLution here: www.campaignforliberty.com
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
Folks, it is unwinding
and it's not going to wait for anyone or anything. When this man says "this is it and it is now", there is very little time left to prepare. As another patriot on DP often says, good luck to us all.
gil, not according to
gil,
not according to jzneff! lol
“A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Prov. 22:3; 27:12 KJV)
Hey McCain-----┌П┐(◣_◢)┌П┐
Damn!
Is this gonna mess up my road trip to the Rally!?!?!?
Link to NAB article
here: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/NAB-will-...
NAB
Hi Lysa,
I`m not sure wether I get it:
Do you think Jim Sinclair is talking about the NAB-thing?
Thanks!
Fabio
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europe4ronpaul.blogspot.com
Hasta la libertad, siempre ;-)
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bavaria-for-ron-paul.blogspot.com
Hasta la libertad, siempre ;-)
Stupid question...
...sorry...I read it again...
It is really a shame. I`m an investment professional (at least I thought so...) but those damn SIVs, CDS, CDOs are turning me nuts...
--------------------------------------
europe4ronpaul.blogspot.com
Hasta la libertad, siempre ;-)
--------------------------------------
bavaria-for-ron-paul.blogspot.com
Hasta la libertad, siempre ;-)
Understandable.
Now imagine you're my 80-year-old grandmother. Prices are going up and living on $14,000/year -- hard as hell. That's why I have to do well.
___________
Lisa C.
www.dvds4delegates.com=Ron Paul, the 44th U.S. President
“Elections are short term efforts; revolutions are long term projects.”
--Ron Paul
Join the rEVOLution here: www.campaignforliberty.com
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
Can't speak 4 Lysa but
I think that's what he's talking about.
___________
Lisa C.
www.dvds4delegates.com=Ron Paul, the 44th U.S. President
“Elections are short term efforts; revolutions are long term projects.”
--Ron Paul
Join the rEVOLution here: www.campaignforliberty.com
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
Thanks Lisa
Yes, Fabio, Jim Sinclair said yesterday "The silence surrounding this important event is mindboggling"
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The silence surrounding this important event is mindboggling.
NAB will shock Wall Street
The Business Spectator
The National Australia Bank's decision to write off 90 per cent of its US conduit loans will have dramatic repercussions around the world. Wall Street will be deeply shocked when they understand the repercussions of what NAB has done. It is clear global banks have nowhere near provided for their exposures to US housing loans which in the words of John Stewart are experiencing a “meltdown”.
We are now way beyond sub-prime. NAB says that it is suffering a 55 per cent loss on American housing loans – an event that has never happened in the history of a developed country in recent memory. This is an unprecedented event and means that the cost of bailing out the US financial system is now far beyond the highest estimates. A US recession is now locked in, but more alarmingly, 55 per cent loan losses point to the possibility of a depression.
It means the cost of bailing out housing exposures to the two mortgage insurers will be so great that it will leave no room to bail out anything else and there are several US banks that are now in big trouble. NAB says that the dislocation in the residential market is separate from the corporate market, but the flow on is inevitable.
While global banks have been writing down their balance sheet assets, few have tackled their conduit exposures which are off balance sheet but to which they are ultimately liable.
More…
Thanks!
This is so insane...
We`ve got a lot of "Moms and Dads" savings to protect and our media keep asking "is the bottom in"?
I learn more for my job at the Dailypaul than reading the Financial Times.
--------------------------------------
europe4ronpaul.blogspot.com
Hasta la libertad, siempre ;-)
--------------------------------------
bavaria-for-ron-paul.blogspot.com
Hasta la libertad, siempre ;-)
I highly recommend subscribing to "The Privateer"
http://www.the-privateer.com/
I believe Lysa also subscribes. Absolutely the best. Try it for a year, you won't be disappointed.
___________
Lisa C.
www.dvds4delegates.com=Ron Paul, the 44th U.S. President
“Elections are short term efforts; revolutions are long term projects.”
--Ron Paul
Join the rEVOLution here: www.campaignforliberty.com
Ron Paul "Sign Wave Across the USA" -- November 5th!
Here is Jim Sinclair's website which I forgot to post
www.jsmineset.com
The story about NAB (National Australian Bank) is posted there today as well.